QB Race for Freshman All-American

Now 11 weeks into the season, with Jake Heaps comfortably progressing as the starter for the Cougars, it is worth a look at how he and the team are doing compared to other teams with freshmen quarterbacks.  BYU has had a freshman all-american each of the last 7 years (see BYUs Freshmen AA), so it makes sense to see how Heaps stacks up in the race for the honor. 

Only 19 freshmen quarterbacks have more than 800 yards passing, all having played meaningful portions of at least five games.  Of those, only six have winning records in the games they have played (highlighted).  And of those six, only one has passed for more yardage than Heaps.

The numbers below only inlcude passing yardage and win/loss records, and I haven't seen most of these guys play, so this there are clearly other factors to consider as well.  However, at a minimum, you would expect a freshman all-american QB to have had a winning record in his games.  Here is the list:

Player, School                   G   Yds    Record
Aaron, Murray, Georgia       11   2580   (5-6) 
Pete Thomas, CSU             11  2565   (3-8)
Corey Robinson, Troy          9     2553   (5-4)
Kolton, Browning, ULM       10    2141   (4-6)
Matt Shilz, Bowling Green    9     1941   (2-7)
David Pilandy, Houston        6     1733   (2-4)   started last 6
Jake Heaps, BYU                 9     1593   (5-4)
Ryan Williams, Memphis      10    1575   (1-9)
Danny O'Brien, Maryland      7     1571   (5-2)   started last 7
Nathan Scheelhaase, Illinois 10   1482   (5-5)
Robert Boldin, Penn St          7     1350   (4-3)   injured
Keith Wenning, Ball St         10    1349   (3-7)
Taylor Martinez, Nebraska    9    1328   (8-1)  957 yds, 12 TDs rushing
Tanner Price, Wake Forest   8    1125   (1-7)
Jordan Webb, Kansas          6     1114   (2-4)  no longer starting
Chas Dodd, Rutgers             6     986    (2-4)  started last 6
Tyler Bray, Tennessee          5     951    (2-3)  started last 5
Chase Rettig, BC                  5     855    (3-2)  started last 5
Terrance Owens, Toledo      5     808    (2-3)   started last 5

With two regular season games remaining for most teams and the bowl season, there is still a lot of ball to be played, but at this point it looks as if the honor will likely go to Taylor Marinez of Nebraska or Danny O'Brien of Maryland.  However, a couple of solid performances, and a six game win streak to cap the season, could still put Heaps in the mix for freshman all-american.

A couple of other thoughts in looking at the stats:

• Either good teams don't start freshmen QB's or freshmen QB's haven't been able to carry their teams to vicory, but only about 30% of these teams have been able to get a winning record with the rookie QB. 
• BYU fans can feel slightly better about their early season struggles in light of how others with inexperienced QBs have struggled as well.
• I have not pulled out the redshirt freshmen from this group... it would be interesting to see how Heaps compares with just the true freshmen.

A Mid-Season Diagnosis

Washington 1986.  Hawaii 1989. Oregon, Hawaii, Texas A&M 1990.  Florida State 1991.  2000 pre-Doman.  Hawaii 2001.  2002.  2003.  2004.  Utah, TCU 2008.  TCU 2009. 

What is the common thread in all of these?  That you were there until the end.  You didn't leave the stadium early.  You didn't turn off the TV.   You stood by the Cougars until the end.  That is what true fans do.  They support their team in good and bad.  That is a defining characteristic of BYU fans.  We believe.  We stay until the end.  No matter the score.  No matter the time.  The team doesn't stop competing (I can only think of two exceptions--CSU and Boise in 2003) and we don't stop supporting.  

But, that doesn't mean that we don't have opinions, or dissect every move of the players and coaches, or think we might have some insight into what is really going on.  I am no different. 

Here is my somewhat-stream-of-consciousness take on a few pieces of our current situation:

Jamie Hill--Hill was not a scapegoat.  Bronco is not one to be reactionary.  The fact that Hill was released means to me that there were significant underlying reasons, and that if anything, Bronco probably waited longer than he should have.

Coaching Matters--What Bronco did to the defense in a few days between Utah State and SDSU, was stunning.  Most BYU fans were bemoaning the fact that we had no talent on D.  Then the first quarter of the SDSU game happened and it hasn't stopped.  The same players, minus a few of the better ones to injury, have performed admirably.  One can only imagine that the same transformation could be performed on offense.  The talent level is not the problem. 

Hot Seat--Robert Anae has to be on the hot seat.  I like him.  He frustrates me at times--frequently this season--but I hope he succeeds.   I want him to find the solutions and get the ship righted.  But, if he cannot do it, Bronco will need to find someone who can. 

Leadership Vacancy--Bronco has stated a couple of times that this team is short on leaders... and he is looking for someone to step up.  I would suggest that this is a problem that is actually inherent in the approach to this season.  Bronco has only named two captains, leaving two other traditional spots unfilled.  There were two opportunities to provide a mantle of leadership to a couple of his seniors.  Perhaps they were not ready--a mantle allows a player to step up and grow into the role and responsibility.  It allows the players around him to respect and follow that leader without thinking that the player is trying to be presumptuous.  How was Jake supposed to be a leader early in the season?  He wasn't the starter.  Bronco had not expressed confidence in him, so how were the other players supposed to feel?  BYU of all places is a place where players know how to lead and how to follow.  They understand mantles.  How many times have these players followed a district leader, zone leader, bishop, EQP, etc that was given a mantle?  A "calling" to team captain, might have been, and still could be a good recipe for leadership success.  Vic So'oto? Bryan Kariya?  Brian Logan?  These guys should be captains.  Give them the mantle and let them run with it.

Starters--Failing to name a starter at QB and TE, has left these positions in somewhat of a tailspin.  QB has been on the mend after an injury mercifully ended the spiral.  TE is still out of control.  A coach needs to pick a starter and then let him play.  Should he lose the job, there are others waiting to step up.  If they are all the same, go with the gut.  Failing to name a starter cuts reps, leadership ability, confidence, and chemistry.

Reps Impact--Linked closely to the failure to name a starter is the impact that has on repetitions for those players.  I promised some numbers in this first analysis since I've been back.  Here it is (if not exact, it is at least illustrative).  If a typical opposing player gets 100 reps, here is how this shakes out for the BYU QBs, TEs, WRs.

100: Typical player reps (for example)
  80: BYU practices are roughly 20% shorter than most opponents practices
  72: Assume 10 percent of those reps (early season) were lost to time spent installing two distinct offenses
  36: Reps are split between the two QBs, leaving them with 36 each--WR's only get 36 reps with each QB
    7: With 5 TE's splitting time, each only gets 20% of those 36  reps with each QB

What is the result? Our QB, a true freshman, is (was) only getting 36% of the reps of the opponent's QB.  Our WR's were only getting 36% of the reps with their QB as opposing WRs were getting with their QB.  Compounding that, our TE's--all rookies--are (were) only getting 7.2% as many reps each as players from opposing teams!  At that rate the season will be over before any of our TE's get the same number of reps as opposing players get in Fall Camp!!!  And these are players that needed to get more reps than opposing players due to inexperience!  The WR's and QB's three games into the season were barely where others were at the end of fall camp.  This has been course-corrected for Heaps and his WR's, but the TEs are still a mess, and unless someone gets named a starter soon, is unlikely to improve.

Drops--Are you following the chain here?  64% fewer reps for our QBs and WRs than the competition might shed light on some of our drops here.  The drops this season have been unprecedented.  Doubtless some portion of them must be a systematic failure such as above.  Likely there are others too.  I would hope to see more accountability for receivers dropping passes--critical first downs, touchdowns, third down conversions, easy dumps, fades, across the middles and everything in between.  It was reduced in the TCU game but still remained an issue--hard not to improve considering how glaring this was.  I wish I had tracked the actual number of drops in those first few games.  I think we would have seen a significant number of drives ended and points missed due directly to dropped passes--enough so that it could have been the difference in the season so far.

The Long Ball--Between the dropped passes (seemingly one or more per series in the first 5 games) and the decision to have Heaps throw it deep on nearly 1 in 3 plays in those first few games, can explain nearly all of the offensive ineptitude.  Anyone who ever succeeded at intramural football knows that the long ball is hardly ever completed and yet is so tempting that many do it anyway, to the detriment of their t-shirt dreams.  BYU was essentially throwing 2 plays away (a drop and a long ball), leaving us with one real crack at a first down, and ensuring 3 and out repeatedly.  It is good to see we have moved away from this, but perhaps we have mistaken failures of the long ball for failures of the passing game and need to reinstate the mid range game.

Running Personnel--Our running game has improved significantly since the UW game.  However, there are still far too many instances of Kariya trying to take it around the end on third and short or DiLuigi trying to go up the middle in the same situation.  Enough to make you want to pull your hair out.  Use the personnel to their strengths. 

Coaches Giving Up--In many of the early games, the coaches elected to punt from inside the 40 yard line.  They opted to kick field goals when touchdowns were needed if there was any hope of winning.  As an anxious fan, it was exasperating.  It felt as if the coaches were giving up--going for the moral victory.  When coaches are doing that, what are the players supposed to do?  The fake field goal was a turning point.  It showed that the coaches had not given up. BYU is going to need much more of that mentality from its coaches if it wants that message to rub off on the players.

So there you have it.

Spring Camp Week 2: QB Battle Update

With seven spring practices now in the books, the second week of spring camp ended on Friday. As mentioned before, it is hard to read too much into stats from practice, but here are the composite stat lines for the three practices this week from the three primary contenders for the starting quarterback spot:

Week 2 Stat Lines
Riley Nelson, Jr (3/7, 18 yds, 0 TDs, 1 int)
James Lark, So (6/8, 54 yds, 0 TDs, 0 int)
Jake Heaps, Fr (14/20, 176 yds, 2 TDs, 0 int)

All reports seem to indicate that each has been given similar opportunities and similar situations while rotating with the 1s, 2s, and 3s. The discrepancy in attempts is primarily a factor of the QB being able to keep a drive alive, creating more passing opportunities. Here are the combined stat lines from weeks 1 and 2:

Week 1 & 2 Cumulative Stat Lines
Nelson: 12/22 (55%), 84 yds, 1 TD, 1 int
Lark: 16/26 (62%), 128 yds, 0 TDs, 2 int*
Heaps: 26/39 (67%), 380 yds, 5 TDs, 0 int

*I inadvertently left off one of Lark’s interceptions from last week and have added it here

Without being able to attend practices in person, I will refrain from picking a front runner or commenting on the probability of each of these talented QBs starting in September, but it is hard not to notice the success that Jake Heaps has had through his first two weeks in the program.

Other notes of interest from week 2:
• Offensive lineman Famika Anae went down on Monday with a torn ACL. He already underwent surgery and will redshirt this year

• WR Marcus Matthews has been moved to tight end, increasing the depth at a position that might already be most intense competition for minutes

• BYU announced it will be playing Oregon State in a home and home in 2011-12

• Friday was the annual high school coaches clinic with roughly 300 coaches from high school programs across the west

Spring Camp Week 1: Quarterback Battle Update

In the background of the NCAA tournament this week, BYU kicked off spring camp by holding four practices (Wednesday was off). It is hard to read too much from practices or personnel at this point, given that there will be a number of players joining the team this fall, and that much depends upon which team a given player was playing with and against (first, second, third, etc). But with that said, all eyes are on the quarterbacks anyway, and their stats—even those from practice are being reported here and there--and are fully followed by the faithful in an effort to discover who, if any, will be named the primary signal caller going into the summer. Here are the summarized stat lines from the first week:

Week 1 Stat Lines
Riley Nelson, Jr (9/15, 66 yds, 1 TD, 0 int)
James Lark, So (10/18, 74 yds, 0 TDs, 1 int)
Jake Heaps, Fr (12/19, 204 yds, 3 TDs, 0 int)

Nelson has a year in the system, Lark has two years in the system but is just a few months removed from a mission, and Heaps is only a few months removed from high school (and only 4 days into official BYU practices). It is early, and to be fair, the stats are not necessarily comparable, but it looks like Heaps is off to a good start and will only get better as he becomes more familiar with the playbook and his teammates.

Other notes:
• Other new faces that have merited positive mentions in various reports include running back Josh Quezada, linebackers Kyle Van Noy and Uona Kaveinga (who will have to sit out this year after transferring from USC), and tight ends Richard Wilson and Mike Muehlmann (both redshirt freshmen) and Devin Mahina (back from a mission).

• O’Neil Chambers missed at least one practice this week in order to catch up on his academics

• Mendenhall noted that this year’s spring camp is already quite a bit ahead of where they were last year at this time, even with the task of finding a new quarterback, and that the new players have impressed on the learning curve

Key Offseason Dates to Remember

Here are a few key 2010 dates for Cougar football fans to keep in mind as the offseason gets into full swing…

January 23 – East West Shrine Game (Orlando, FL)
Max Hall, Dennis Pitta, and Jan Jorgensen will play in the 85th East West Shrine game that kicks off at 3pm EST and will be televised on ESPN2.

Feb 3 - Signing Day
The Class of 2010 will finally fax in their forms in the morning, allowing coaches to finally comment on them. Watch for BYU to hold a press conference touting this top 20 recruiting class in the stadium Cougar Room sometime late morning or early afternoon.

Feb 24-Mar 2 – NFL Scouting Combine
Max Hall, Dennis Pitta, and Manase Tonga have been invited to participate in this year’s event.

Early March – BYU Pro Day
NFL scouts will descend on campus for one day for the departing seniors to show off their skills in advance of the draft. Hall, Pitta and Tonga, will have the option to try to better any of their scores from the combine, while other seniors such as Andrew George, RJ Willing, Colby Clausen, Matt Bauman, Scott Johnson, Brett Denney, and Sam Doman will be given their one and only shot to impress the observers and try to land a free agent spot. [If you know when this is being held, please share, and I’ll update the list…]

March 15 - Spring Practice Begins
This is the much anticipated debut of several members of the Class of 2010 that have already enrolled in school to ensure participation in spring ball, including Jake Heaps (QB), Ross Apo (WR), Kyle Van Noy (LB), and Josh Quezada (RB). This will also be the first appearances of the Class of 2007 return missionary freshmen Devin Mahina (TE), Famika Anae (OL), and Marcus Matthews (WR). The story of spring ball will be the battle for starting quarterback with Riley Nelson (Jr) returning, James Lark (Fr), and Heaps all vying for the spot.

April 10 - Blue and White Spring Game
After not playing last year due to stadium field upgrades (although that is debatable given how the field performed this year), the game is back on the schedule, and likely to be appreciated more than in the past. Significant interest will also be generated by the QB lineup.

April 22-24 - NFL Draft
For the first time ever, the NFL draft will begin by holding the first round in prime time on a Thursday night. Selections will commence at 7:30pm ET. The second and third rounds will be held on Friday, April 23 beginning at 6:30pm ET. Rounds 4-7 will be on Saturday April 24 beginning at 10am ET. Of the BYU players that have entered the draft, only Pitta has a realistic shot at Friday, with most of the other players hoping to hear their names called in late rounds on Saturday. Watch for a number of free agent contracts to be signed by the undrafted.

Early August – Fall Practice Begins
I have been unable to track down the exact date for this. If you have it, please pass it along to the rest of us. This will be the first official gathering of the remainder of the class of 2010 (non-early enrollees) and the other return missionaries with the returning players from the 2009 team. With numerous high profile and talented newcomers, a number of key position openings, and a wealth of returning talent, this should be an exciting fall camp.

September 4 – Season Begins (non-conf games)
September 4 – Washington (home)
September 18 – Florida State (road)
September 25 – Nevada (home)
October 1 – Utah State (road)

Recruiting Lag: A Look at Contributions by Class

With Jake Heaps and Ross Apo signing grant-in-aid agreements with BYU earlier this week, the recruiting talk is getting under way once again and will soon be in full swing filling its role as fan board fodder between bowl season and spring ball. It also makes for an interesting time to take a look at the lag that BYU often experiences from when a player signs until he begins to contribute on the field. Every school faces a similar lag, but at BYU, with so many players leaving on missions either before or after their freshman seasons, it is much more pronounced.

For example, the elusive Andrew George, splitter of Utes and defender of (Beehive) Boots, was actually part of the class of 2002. Brett Denney and RJ Willing were both in the class of 2003. And 2004 and 2005? More of the same.

Players Contributing in 2009 by Recruiting Class (class in 2009)
2002
Andrew George (Sr)

2003
Mitch Payne (Jr)
RJ Willing (Sr)
Dan Van Sweden (Sr)
Brett Denney (Sr)

2004
Terrence Brown (So)
Nick Alletto (Jr)
Matt Putnam (So)

2005
Manase Tonga (Sr)
Harvey Unga (Jr)
Spencer Hafoka (So)
Luke Ashworth (Jr)
Jan Jorgensen (Sr)
Terrance Hooks (Sr)
Matt Reynolds (So)
Shawn Doman (Sr)
Vic So’oto (Jr)
Russell Tialavea (Sr)
Stephen Covey (So)

2006
Brandon Bradley (Jr)
Brandon Ogletree (Fr)
Braden Hansen (Fr)
Romney Fuga ( So)
Ian Dulan (Jr, mission)
Mike Muellman (Fr)
Max Hall (Sr)
Ryan Freeman (So)
Riley Stephenson (Fr)
Robbie Buckner (Fr)
James Lark (Fr, mission)
Rhen Brown (Fr)
McKay Jacobsen (So)
Mike Hague (So)

OK, so everyone already knows that some of BYU’s players take two years out. And we covered that already here: http://www.byucougs.com/2009/09/numbers-inside-missionary-advantage.html. But here is the interesting part. In 2003, 2004, and 2005 BYU was recruiting on the heels of consecutive losing seasons. Due to misconduct, the 2004 class was decimated, and the effects are still being felt. In 2005, while technically Bronco’s first class, there was no one steering the ship during critical recruiting periods while the coaching hire saga was playing out, and the program essentially took what they could and/or players willing to be loyal through the transition, which fortunately turned out to be some great players, but was not a proactive targeted, recruiting approach by any means.

So 2006 is effectively Bronco’s first recruiting class. It is just beginning to contribute and the majority of players from that class were freshmen or sophomores this season, and even so, many of them were significant contributors.

What all of this means is that during a period of unprecedented success in BYU football (four consecutive years with 10+ wins—never before done), the team has been playing with a patchwork of recruits, JC transfers, walk-ons, and young contributors. But that era is coming to an end. While fans may not see many in the class of 2009 until 2011 or beyond (for those who choose to serve a mission), the class of 2006 is back and has a year under their belts. The class of 2007 is back and ready to go this spring. Some in the class of 2008 will be back before the fall. So while other schools are bidding farewell to the class of 2006 this winter, the Cougars are finally getting a look at theirs.

And with the signing of Ross and Jake and the many others that will follow them in February, BYU will have its best class ever. And for the first time since 2000, that class will be playing on a team that is almost completely composed of recruits from the current coaching staff.

A Summer Review

[Originally Posted July 28, 2009 at www.philsteele.com/Blogs/Individual_Team_blogs/BYU_Blog.html]

Welcome Back.

Whether you spend hours a day worshipping at the shrine of your preferred patron fan board or are just getting back up to speed on the team happenings over the summer, as college football fans we are universally anticipating the arrival of opening kickoff… or, in reality, for many of us even the start of fall camp in a few days will begin to satisfy our thirst for action after the long summer drought. That said, I hope that you have had a summer full of adventure and have big plans to take advantage of what still remains, because I already know that your September, October and November Saturdays are booked.

This opening blog is dedicated to helping fans who took the summer off to quickly catch up on the top stories since spring camp (April, May, June, July). The next entry will take a look ahead at key stories going in to fall camp.

BYU Football Top Summer Stories

1. Recruiting—I will be the first to recognize that recruiting hype is just that. It doesn’t directly do a thing for the scoreboard, which at the end is just about all that will matter. But with that caveat, or perhaps because of it, recruiting was the top story of BYU football this summer. Based on the 20 known commitments the program has received thus far, BYU is on track to land its highest rated (which hopefully translates to most talented) class ever. The class is headlined by Jake Heaps, a 6’-2”/195 lb two-time state champion QB from the Seattle, WA area. He was offered a scholarship by just about every major program in the country, is rated the number one player in the country by Scout, and was the winner of the MVP at the Elite 11 QB camp in California last week. That in itself might get fans excited, but what has really fired up the Cougar Faithful, is the ownership Jake has been taking of his own class. Beginning with a press conference in June to announce his commitment, where he introduced fellow commits Ross Apo (WR previously committed to Texas) and Zac Stout (rated top five linebacker in US by Scout), Jake has blossomed into a one-man recruiting pitch to some of the top talent around. No doubt in part due to this influence, BYU is winning head to head recruiting battles with the best of them and fans are energized.

2. Personnel—It is not uncommon for adjustments to be made to the roster in the offseason. Players transfer or move on. Others never recover from injury. Some don’t qualify. This summer is not any different. Although what may be changing is the 24/7 media coverage of such changes, which creates headlines and chat room frenzy out of each one. These are the roster situations that caused a stir this summer:

-Russell Tialavea, senior starting nose tackle unexpectedly decided to apply for missionary service and will likely not participate with the team this fall, leaving an unexpected and potentially vulnerable hole in the middle. Word is that there is a slight chance (very slight) that he may not enter the Missionary Training Center until after the season, and would therefore be able to participate.

-Brandon Howard, starting corner, has left school for personal reasons and is not expected back

-Matt Ah-You, senior backup linebacker, has left school in hopes of an opportunity to start with another program. Although not a starter, he provided valuable depth to the linebacking corps.

-Bernard Afutiti, after some impressive practices and a redshirt year, coaches, teammates and fans were looking forward to having him on the field this fall, but he wasn’t able to get it done in the classroom, and is academically ineligible.

-Manase Tonga, senior fullback, is expected to rejoin the team this fall, pending academic performance in a few classes on campus this summer. Suspended from school for academic reasons, he spent the last year working on his grades and degree progress at Utah Valley University, and could be an extremely valuable piece of the puzzle in the backfield this fall.

-Jamie Hill, defensive coordinator, will have full responsibility for calling the defensive plays this season, a duty that he was heavily involved with last year, but now becomes his.

3. MWC and the BCS—After the on field performance by Mountain West Conference teams last season, the off season was spent by conference big wigs shining a light on the issue. First it was a playoff proposal sponsored by the MWC at the NCAA meetings. Then it was BCS anti-trust hearings in the US Congress sponsored by Utah Senator Orrin Hatch. A big deal was made about signing (or at least waiting until the last minute) to sign the new BCS television deal with ESPN. Of course all of this culminated with speculative talk of adding Boise State to the league—the vibe seems to be tilting to a ‘not if, but when’ scenario. Not many people, if any (including conference and school executives), expected any actual near-term changes to come out of all of the activity, but if the goal was to raise the conference profile, increase national awareness, and put a big fat spotlight on this upcoming season, then it was a success.

4. Riley Nelson Rule—A little known and relatively obscure rule change was passed at the NCAA gathering this summer that has come to be known among Cougar Fans as the Riley Nelson rule. The rule, sponsored by Utah State, makes changes to how missions are treated for transfer purposes and essentially requires that a returning missionary must sit out a year should he decide to transfer, just like any other athlete that remained in the program. It is unclear what impact this will have on the program, but caused a bit of a local ruckus among finger-pointing fans in the Beehive State, when it was learned that Utah State QB Riley Nelson would be transferring to BYU upon completion of his missionary service.

5. MWC Media Days—As per tradition, the media gathered in Las Vegas during the second to last week in July and talked football with the coaches and a few players from each team. The outcome of preseason (and essentially meaningless) polls has the Cougars finishing second to TCU (Utah third), with QB Max Hall as the MVP, and along with RB Harvey Unga, TE Dennis Pitta, and OL Matt Reynolds selected to the first team.

6. Oklahoma—Finally, there has been buzz around the Oklahoma game circled on September 5th on prime time ESPN. The Cougars are expected to be heavy underdogs, but summer chatter has focused on just about every aspect of that game—The chances the team will have in that game. How we stack up. What adjustments should be made to give the team its best chance. The new stadium. Its scoreboard.—Fans quickly gobbled up available tickets and are busy planning trips to Dallas.