[Note: This has been published simultaneously at www.philsteele.com/Blogs/Individual_Team_blogs/BYU_Blog.html]
I have now completed my self-imposed 72 hour deep breath and am prepared to assess this game from a place other than the ledge. This loss was a hard pill to swallow… A bad loss to a team held in low national esteem on national TV while ranked in the top ten and playing in front of the home crowd. It showcased an impotent defense and a very generous offense. On the flip side, however, the team is still 2-1, nationally ranked, with a win over a very good Oklahoma team on their resume, and several redemption games still left on the schedule.
Last week I wrote:
“FSU will be ready for this game—for them it is redemption, a chance to salvage a season, prove the doubters wrong, and knock off a top 10 team on national TV (sorry Direct TV subscribers). There is also a chance that BYU has begun to believe the hype and all of the things that are being said about them (let’s hope not), which, if true, probably will take one to two quarters to snap out of. In any case, BYU fans and players will take a win any way they can get it.”
That turns out to have been the story of the game, only we never really snapped out of it. I also posed 11 key questions that would impact the outcome of the game and allow fans to measure the team's improvement over the previous week. Here is my assessment of the answer and impact for each:
1. Will the injured Players Play? Yes and No. Harvey Unga played and had a good game, but looked as if he was still feeling the effects of his hamstring pull. Senior Scott Johnson sat out and was replaced by true freshman Craig Bills. Also, Braden Hansen sat out on the O line (as expected) and Moose Thorson played in his place. As the field general on the defense, Johnson’s presence in particular was missed on the field.
2. Can Max Hall avoid throwing an interception? No. No. No. This game was a turnover nightmare. Three interceptions, two fumbles, and zero take-aways from the other team. Max has now thrown a pick for six games in a row (13 in his last 6 games). That in and of itself isn’t incredibly meaningful (Ty Detmer used to throw a ton of interceptions) as long as Max is still consistently moving the offense with confidence; however, a streak like this can begin to shake that confidence.
3. Which direction will the running game go? Regressed from the Tulane game. The overall rushing game was relatively effective (5.7 yards/carry), but not very significant in the outcome of the game. With 108 rushing yards the rushing game seemed to have settled somewhere in the middle of its previous two showings (28 and 208 yards respectively). Time of possession and playing come-from-behind limited the number of carries by the blue team in the game.
4. How nice is it to be home? Not so much. The 18 game home win streak was snapped. The new field left much to be desired in its debut as it gave way to divots and slippage. Despite the sellout, crowd noise was never really a meaningful factor as FSU took an early lead and never relinquished.
5. Will the refs become a factor? Yes, but not really. The ACC refs only called three penalties on BYU (the fewest in the last 16 games dating back to only two against UCLA in the Las Vegas Bowl to end the 2007 season), but it was what they didn’t call that seemed to stand out—frequent play-making holdings and a blatantly obvious slingshot PI on the pick six. That said, the game might have been closer, but given how well FSU played, it would not have changed the outcome.
6. How much will the altitude affect the Seminoles? A non-factor. Altitude tends to affect the defense more, since it is harder to substitute, and it tends to become a factor late in the game. FSU did a great job mitigating this by maintaining possession for 40 minutes, allowing the defense plenty of rest, and by taking a large lead into the fourth quarter nullifying the importance of any slowdown by its defensive players.
7. Who will kickoff? Riley Stephenson. He won the job in practice last week and was an improvement over the previous two games. He had five kickoffs: 2 touchbacks, 1 returned out of the end zone to the 18, 1 returned from the 1 yard line to the 27, and 1 that only went to the 12 yard line returned to the 40. It was nice to see a few kicks into the end zone and an instance of them starting behind the 20. Hopefully with more confidence and experience, Riley will improve his consistency and this type of kicking game will be the rule rather than the exception.
8. Have we solved the punt return issues? Don’t know. Florida State only punted once in this game and it rolled to a stop. Stay tuned…
9. Will the team stay healthy? Mostly. There were no season ending injuries, although nose tackle Russell Tialavea, lost early in the first quarter, will be out for 2-3 games with a sprained knee. Overall, this was a good outcome against an athletic physical team.
10. Will the receivers be able to get open on FSU’s man defense? Yes. For the most part, the offense was able to do as it wished. The only things that really stopped them were turnovers ending possessions and standing on the sidelines while the defense was on the field.
11. Can the defense maintain pressure on QB Christian Ponder? No. This was perhaps the key to winning the game for FSU. Ponder was 21/26 for 195 yards, 2 TDs, and no picks. Even more importantly he had 77 yards rushing on 11 runs, and the team was 12/15 on third down. The few times that the BYU defense did get in, Ponder was able to take a hit and deliver the ball or evade the tackle and run for significant gain. The Cougars missed numerous tackles, and gave up over 300 yards rushing. It was as if FSU knew exactly what we were going to do on each play—and now that our blitz schemes and alignments are on film from the first two games, perhaps they did.
Showing posts with label BYU vs. Florida State. Show all posts
Showing posts with label BYU vs. Florida State. Show all posts
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
Thursday, September 17, 2009
What to Watch for Against Florida State
[Note: This was also published simultaneously at www.philsteele.com/Blogs/Individual_Team_blogs/BYU_Blog.html]
After significant improvement from game one to game two, the expectations are high. It will take a great effort just to maintain the level of play the team displayed last weekend vs. Tulane. However, on the margins there are still areas that can be improved and several unanswered questions. Here are several things to watch for in Saturday’s game:
• Which injured players will play? Harvey Unga played for two series last week and is listed as probable for Saturday, but will he get in the game, and if he does, will he be 100%? Free safety Scott Johnson is listed as possible after notching his second concussion of the year; should he not play, Andrew Rich will move to free and Shiloah Te’o will play strong safety in his place. This will entail some drop off in secondary play, but how much remains to be seen. O lineman Braden Hansen is out with a sprained knee, and Moose Thorson, who had earned the starting spot at one time during fall camp, will replace him.
• Can Max Hall avoid throwing an interception? After only throwing 7 interceptions in his first 10 games last year, Hall finished the year throwing 7 in his last three (AFA-1, Utah-5, AZ-1). He has started this year with picks in both of the first two games (OU-2, Tulane-1), and has now tossed it to the other team in five straight games (10 picks in last 5 games).
• Which direction will the running game go? After only 28 net rushing yards against a quick and dominant OU defensive front, the team’s horses exploded for 206 yards on the ground last week in a one of the best team rushing displays in a while. It will be interesting to see if the team can pick up where it left off last week, or if it falls back to game-one-esque against another athletic front.
• How nice is it to be home? The Cougars open their home schedule defending an 18 game winning streak. The game is sold out. After two games away, a high national ranking, and a winnable game against a high profile opponent, expect the fans to be rabid and the noise to make a difference on at least one play.
• Will the refs become a factor? Although the first two games saw a lot of yellow coming from the zebras, they seemed to be balanced and well-called games for the most part. This weekend’s game will be called by an ACC crew, which isn’t necessarily significant, although BYU has been burned by sole conference officiating in the past (think Pac 10 crews).
• How much will the altitude affect the Seminoles? Coach Bobby Bowden says it won’t affect his team at all… history would say he is missing something. The question is how much will it affect them and when will it start to kick in. Look for the FSU defense to begin to drag a bit by the fourth quarter.
• Who will kickoff? And, will it stay in bounds? Bronco opened up the competition this week between Riley Stephenson and Mitch Payne for kickoffs (saying Payne will remain as placekicker on FGs and PATs). After both of them kicked it out of bounds last week, and Payne doing it the week before, watch for that to have been corrected. Stephenson has the stronger leg (he kicks it 5-7 yards further than Payne), so my bet is that as long as he was able to show consistency keeping it in bounds this week in practice, he will get the nod.
• Have we solved the punt return issues? After no punt returns last week (all fair catches or bounces), this question still remains following a poor showing from this department in the Oklahoma game that nearly cost us the game.
• Will the team be able to stay healthy? The 2009 Cougars are a talented, if not deep, team and have the potential to win a lot of games this year. One of the many things that might derail them would be significant injuries in thin positions (offensive line, quarterback, secondary, linebacker). As they gear up for a conference run, it is important that they come out of this game without losing any key players.
• Will the receivers be able to get open on FSU’s man defense? Against OU, the outside receivers often struggled to get open, and while FSU’s secondary is perhaps not as good as Oklahoma’s, it is filled with fast athletic players that will attempt to win a man-to-man defensive battle with our receivers. Tulane tried a similar strategy, but without the athletes to make it work. Should FSU succeed, watch for a lot of passes to the backs and tight ends. If the Cougars win this battle it could be a memorable day in Provo.
• Can the defense maintain pressure on QB Christian Ponder? The key to this game for BYU is going to be slowing down FSU’s passing game and the key to that is going to be getting pressure on the quarterback. Our defensive pass rush—its personnel, tendencies, blitz packages, alignments, and disguises—has been on display (and on film) for two weeks now. How effective it can continue to be will be the difference between a shootout and a comfortable win for the home team.
I think the BYU running game regresses somewhat, but that its passing offense continues to perform, and BYU’s defense slows FSU down just enough to get the win. BYU 34 FSU 23
Time for predictions… add your prediction in the comments below as well as anything else will you be watching for in the game.
After significant improvement from game one to game two, the expectations are high. It will take a great effort just to maintain the level of play the team displayed last weekend vs. Tulane. However, on the margins there are still areas that can be improved and several unanswered questions. Here are several things to watch for in Saturday’s game:
• Which injured players will play? Harvey Unga played for two series last week and is listed as probable for Saturday, but will he get in the game, and if he does, will he be 100%? Free safety Scott Johnson is listed as possible after notching his second concussion of the year; should he not play, Andrew Rich will move to free and Shiloah Te’o will play strong safety in his place. This will entail some drop off in secondary play, but how much remains to be seen. O lineman Braden Hansen is out with a sprained knee, and Moose Thorson, who had earned the starting spot at one time during fall camp, will replace him.
• Can Max Hall avoid throwing an interception? After only throwing 7 interceptions in his first 10 games last year, Hall finished the year throwing 7 in his last three (AFA-1, Utah-5, AZ-1). He has started this year with picks in both of the first two games (OU-2, Tulane-1), and has now tossed it to the other team in five straight games (10 picks in last 5 games).
• Which direction will the running game go? After only 28 net rushing yards against a quick and dominant OU defensive front, the team’s horses exploded for 206 yards on the ground last week in a one of the best team rushing displays in a while. It will be interesting to see if the team can pick up where it left off last week, or if it falls back to game-one-esque against another athletic front.
• How nice is it to be home? The Cougars open their home schedule defending an 18 game winning streak. The game is sold out. After two games away, a high national ranking, and a winnable game against a high profile opponent, expect the fans to be rabid and the noise to make a difference on at least one play.
• Will the refs become a factor? Although the first two games saw a lot of yellow coming from the zebras, they seemed to be balanced and well-called games for the most part. This weekend’s game will be called by an ACC crew, which isn’t necessarily significant, although BYU has been burned by sole conference officiating in the past (think Pac 10 crews).
• How much will the altitude affect the Seminoles? Coach Bobby Bowden says it won’t affect his team at all… history would say he is missing something. The question is how much will it affect them and when will it start to kick in. Look for the FSU defense to begin to drag a bit by the fourth quarter.
• Who will kickoff? And, will it stay in bounds? Bronco opened up the competition this week between Riley Stephenson and Mitch Payne for kickoffs (saying Payne will remain as placekicker on FGs and PATs). After both of them kicked it out of bounds last week, and Payne doing it the week before, watch for that to have been corrected. Stephenson has the stronger leg (he kicks it 5-7 yards further than Payne), so my bet is that as long as he was able to show consistency keeping it in bounds this week in practice, he will get the nod.
• Have we solved the punt return issues? After no punt returns last week (all fair catches or bounces), this question still remains following a poor showing from this department in the Oklahoma game that nearly cost us the game.
• Will the team be able to stay healthy? The 2009 Cougars are a talented, if not deep, team and have the potential to win a lot of games this year. One of the many things that might derail them would be significant injuries in thin positions (offensive line, quarterback, secondary, linebacker). As they gear up for a conference run, it is important that they come out of this game without losing any key players.
• Will the receivers be able to get open on FSU’s man defense? Against OU, the outside receivers often struggled to get open, and while FSU’s secondary is perhaps not as good as Oklahoma’s, it is filled with fast athletic players that will attempt to win a man-to-man defensive battle with our receivers. Tulane tried a similar strategy, but without the athletes to make it work. Should FSU succeed, watch for a lot of passes to the backs and tight ends. If the Cougars win this battle it could be a memorable day in Provo.
• Can the defense maintain pressure on QB Christian Ponder? The key to this game for BYU is going to be slowing down FSU’s passing game and the key to that is going to be getting pressure on the quarterback. Our defensive pass rush—its personnel, tendencies, blitz packages, alignments, and disguises—has been on display (and on film) for two weeks now. How effective it can continue to be will be the difference between a shootout and a comfortable win for the home team.
I think the BYU running game regresses somewhat, but that its passing offense continues to perform, and BYU’s defense slows FSU down just enough to get the win. BYU 34 FSU 23
Time for predictions… add your prediction in the comments below as well as anything else will you be watching for in the game.
Wednesday, September 16, 2009
Records within Reach vs. Florida State
Several players on this year’s team are quickly moving up the program’s all-time records charts. In particular Max Hall, Dennis Pitta, and Harvey Unga were already in the top 10 in several career categories as the season began, and now, with two games under their belts, have begun their statistical assault on the players that have gone before. I will provide a regular (although likely not weekly) update on the status of each, where they stand and what type of performance would be needed in that week’s game to move them up a notch. (The original assessment of each of player, as well as national award nominations, was posed on August 12, 2009 and can be found at the following link: http://www.byucougs.com/2009/08/records-should-fall.html)
Summary of Records within Reach vs. Florida State:
• Max Hall could reach #4 in total offense (needs 238 yards)
• Max Hall could reach #4 in TD passes (1 to tie, 2 for sole possession)
• Dennis Pitta could reach #9 in receiving yards (14 yards for #9, 158 yards for #8)
• Dennis Pitta could reach #2 in tight end receiving yards (158 yards)
• Dennis Pitta could reach #5 in receptions (8 catches)
• Harvey Unga could reach #6 in rushing yards (107 for #6, 122 for #5)
• Harvey Unga could reach #9 in all-purpose yards (60 yards)
• Harvey Unga could reach #3 in TDs (needs 3)
Max Hall
• #4 Passing Yards (began season #7, needs 1,093 to become #3)—With 329 and 309 passing yards in weeks 1 and 2 respectively, Hall moved into 4th place all time, passing Kevin Feterik, John Walsh, and Robbie Bosco. He needs 1,093 yards to pass Jim McMahon for #3 all-time.
• #5 Total Offense (began season #6, needs 238 yards to become #4)—Passed Robbie Bosco to move into 5th place all time. With 238 yards, will pass Steve Young for 4th place all-time.
• #6 Touchdown Passes (began season #6, needs 1 TD pass to become #4)—After throwing for 4 touchdowns already this season, Hall needs just 1 to tie with John Walsh and Robbie Bosco, and 2 to move into sole possession of 4th place.
Dennis Pitta
• #10 Receiving Yards (began season #11, needs 14 yards to become #9)—With 137 receiving yards so far, Pitta has passed Mike Chronister (1976-78) to reach #10. With another 14 yards, he will pass Glen Kozlowski for #9. Chris Smith is #8, 158 yards ahead.
• #3 Tight End Receiving Yards (began season #3, needs 158 to reach #2)—With another 158 yards, he will pass Chris Smith for #2 all-time in BYU’s storied tight end tradition.
• #6 Receptions (began season #8, needs 8 catches to move into #5)—Pitta passed Eric Drage and Reno Mahe during the Oklahoma game. With 8 more receptions, he will pass Gordon Hudson for #5.
Harvey Unga
• #7 Rushing Yards (began season #8, needs 107 yards to become #6 and 122 to become #5)—Despite not playing in game one and only getting three carries for 17 yards in game two (due to a hamstring injury), Unga passed John Ogden (1964-66) for 7th place all-time. He is expected to be full speed this week and with 107 yards he passes Pete Van Valkenberg (1970-72) for #6, and with 122 passes Luke Staley for #5.
• #10 All Purpose Yards (began season #10, needs 60 yards to become #9)—Will pass Reno Mahe with 60 yards, to become #9.
• #7 Scoring (began season #7, needs 24 points to reach #6)—Still needs 24 points to catch Curtis Brown at #6.
• #4 Touchdowns (began season #4, needs 3 to reach #3)—With 3 touchdowns, will catch Lakei Heimuli for #3 all-time.
Summary of Records within Reach vs. Florida State:
• Max Hall could reach #4 in total offense (needs 238 yards)
• Max Hall could reach #4 in TD passes (1 to tie, 2 for sole possession)
• Dennis Pitta could reach #9 in receiving yards (14 yards for #9, 158 yards for #8)
• Dennis Pitta could reach #2 in tight end receiving yards (158 yards)
• Dennis Pitta could reach #5 in receptions (8 catches)
• Harvey Unga could reach #6 in rushing yards (107 for #6, 122 for #5)
• Harvey Unga could reach #9 in all-purpose yards (60 yards)
• Harvey Unga could reach #3 in TDs (needs 3)
Max Hall
• #4 Passing Yards (began season #7, needs 1,093 to become #3)—With 329 and 309 passing yards in weeks 1 and 2 respectively, Hall moved into 4th place all time, passing Kevin Feterik, John Walsh, and Robbie Bosco. He needs 1,093 yards to pass Jim McMahon for #3 all-time.
• #5 Total Offense (began season #6, needs 238 yards to become #4)—Passed Robbie Bosco to move into 5th place all time. With 238 yards, will pass Steve Young for 4th place all-time.
• #6 Touchdown Passes (began season #6, needs 1 TD pass to become #4)—After throwing for 4 touchdowns already this season, Hall needs just 1 to tie with John Walsh and Robbie Bosco, and 2 to move into sole possession of 4th place.
Dennis Pitta
• #10 Receiving Yards (began season #11, needs 14 yards to become #9)—With 137 receiving yards so far, Pitta has passed Mike Chronister (1976-78) to reach #10. With another 14 yards, he will pass Glen Kozlowski for #9. Chris Smith is #8, 158 yards ahead.
• #3 Tight End Receiving Yards (began season #3, needs 158 to reach #2)—With another 158 yards, he will pass Chris Smith for #2 all-time in BYU’s storied tight end tradition.
• #6 Receptions (began season #8, needs 8 catches to move into #5)—Pitta passed Eric Drage and Reno Mahe during the Oklahoma game. With 8 more receptions, he will pass Gordon Hudson for #5.
Harvey Unga
• #7 Rushing Yards (began season #8, needs 107 yards to become #6 and 122 to become #5)—Despite not playing in game one and only getting three carries for 17 yards in game two (due to a hamstring injury), Unga passed John Ogden (1964-66) for 7th place all-time. He is expected to be full speed this week and with 107 yards he passes Pete Van Valkenberg (1970-72) for #6, and with 122 passes Luke Staley for #5.
• #10 All Purpose Yards (began season #10, needs 60 yards to become #9)—Will pass Reno Mahe with 60 yards, to become #9.
• #7 Scoring (began season #7, needs 24 points to reach #6)—Still needs 24 points to catch Curtis Brown at #6.
• #4 Touchdowns (began season #4, needs 3 to reach #3)—With 3 touchdowns, will catch Lakei Heimuli for #3 all-time.
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