Season Leader's Prediction for UNLV Game

Many of you probably participate in an online BYU prediction game of one sort or another (cougarboard, cougarfan, etc), and if so, you know how hard it is to win one of those even for one week, let alone lead in the standings.  And, especially so in a season such as this one with so many unknowns and so much inconsistency.   Yet, impressively, one person has been at the top of the standings on Cougarfan's Football Challenge for seven weeks now--ever since the Air Force Game.  I have invited him to provide some guest commentary and a prediction on the game.  And, given his current seven week reign, you are not likely to get it from a more credible source.  (In full disclosure, he also happens to be my brother, and catches all the games from Terre Haute, Indiana :)

BYU is slowly starting to gain confidence offensively. At this point in the season, it’s no longer a question of whether BYU will get in the end zone, but how often. I think BYU will build on its relative offensive success in the Wyoming game, and will score 30 points or more for the first time this year. Defensively, I think BYU will continue to play well against the run.


UNLV has enough athleticism to score against the Cougars, but they have (like BYU) struggled to be consistent. BYU started very strongly against SDSU (up 14-0) and Wyoming (up 16-0). If UNLV can take a 7-0 lead, or more, BYU will be in a dogfight. But BYU has two weeks to prepare for this one, and I think BYU will be the team that starts strong again. This one won’t be as close as Wyoming was. My prediction: BYU doubles up the Rebels, 34-17.

                            --Jared Haynie, Seven-week Football Challenge Leader

In an ironic twist, Jared's wife Julie is the only one from the family to have had the top score from any single game prediction...

What We Learned in the UNLV Game

After perhaps the most complete game of the year against perhaps the worst team played against so far, it is time to assess where improvement was made. Last week I wrote:

“UNLV will come out swinging in the first half, play a good game, but will be outmatched by BYU’s talent. The Cougar offense will cut down on the turnovers (but likely still have at least one) and get into the end zone more than last week as they pull away in the second half. BYU ends up winning big and Sanford is out of a job before Monday. BYU 52, UNLV 13.”

I was essentially short a kickoff return TD for each team and only premature on the formality of Sanford’s resignation/dismissal, but otherwise, was pretty close in what I thought at the time was a rather gutsy call. Here is the outcome of the things to watch for:

• A Clean Game—BYU played its cleanest game of the year. Zero turnovers. Eight of eleven on third downs. Relatively few penalties. Not only was it clean, but the level of play was maintained for all four quarters, as the team scored a touchdown in all four for the first time this season.

• Health and Concussions—There were no serious injuries, although Scott Johnson left the game with a sprained ankle, and Manase Tonga suffered a knee injury. Both players status remains in question for the game with San Diego St. The absence of five players on special teams primarily due to injury was a likely contributor to the UNLV kickoff TD.

• More than Cover the Spread—Check. The spread was 16.5. The MOV was 38.

• Rushing and Total Offense—The box score victory was also secured as the offense and defense seemed to be clicking on all cylinders. Harvey Unga (20 carries, 149 yds, 3 TD) continued to improve and had his best game of the season, including a 52 yard TD, the longest Cougar rushing TD since 2006. Overall the team had 611 yards of total offense (320 passing, 291 rushing), well above the 500 or so total needed to solidify the win on paper.

• Filling in for McKay Jacobsen—Due to the lopsided nature of the game and the success of the running game, the receivers were never really tested. That said, Hafoka and Ashworth were relatively quiet with 1 and 2 catches each. It was Brett Thompson that stood out with 52 yards on only 2 catches, with a 46 yarder on a beautiful cut into a wide open post.

• Dennis Pitta Encore—Pitta had a solid, if unspectacular game with 2 catches for 60 yards and one touchdown (Andrew George also had a great game from the TE spot going for 61 yards on 3 catches). Pitta continues to lead all tight ends nationally in receptions (28) and yards (399); he is third in touchdowns (4).

• Mike Sanford’s Final Game—UNLV never appeared to give up (and so Sanford will likely coach again this weekend against Utah), but they did not deliver the job-saving performance that was needed. After five years, it is apparent that Sanford has not been able to turn the program around and no doubt the UNLV athletic director is already compiling a short list of replacement targets.

A couple of other notes from this game:

• In the second half, Max Hall threw a pass to Andrew George on the left side of the field that was overthrown and uncatchable. I realized as I watched that and thought about how long it had been since that had happened, how rare it was to see him overthrow someone, and that it has become easy to take his accuracy for granted.

• It was good to see Hall finally break his streak of interceptions.

• The rankings appear on the surface to not have given the Cougars any love, but in reality they gained a significant number of votes in each of the polls.

• O'Neil Chambers' 97 yard kickoff return was a long time in waiting, and as he has guaranteed a TD return, almost made good on his promise.

• The kicking game was much improved over the beginning of the season, as several kickoffs went into the endzone, and all of the PATs and the long field goal sailed through the uprights without any drama. Surprisingly, it was the punting in this game that was below par.

• The defense came through with a big game (aside from giving up the 75 yard TD pass), and managed three game changing interceptions—Pendleton’s in particular was an incredibly athletic and on-the-ball move to make the catch and stay in bounds.

• Manase Tonga, prior to getting injured looked better than he has all season, a positive sign that he is working hard and regaining his playing shape. He actually had a nice run in the second half where he outran several linebackers, something I didn’t think I would see him do this season.

What to Watch for Against UNLV

Saturday night’s game against UNLV will be the third of four games that could be considered “trap games” for the BYU football team (you could possibly argue that the Florida State game actually fell into that category as well, making this the fifth of six) where there is very little for the Cougars to gain and yet significant benefit that will accrue to the opponent should they pull off the upset. Considering UNLV’s performance last week, and that Coach Mike Sanford is literally fighting for his career this weekend, watch for UNLV to come out with their A game, as they find themselves in a similar scenario to Florida State prior to the Seminoles playing the Cougars. This will be their chance to right the ship, prove the doubters wrong, turn the season around, and save their general. Or it will be the last hurrah. Here are a few things to keep an eye on as you watch this drama unfold on Saturday night:


• A Clean Game—BYU can give the ball up as they have been doing and still come away with a victory. However, as turnovers and mistakes have been a focus in practice this week, the team needs to come out and play a clean game in order to show that it is improving and ready to take on TCU in two weeks.

• Health and Concussions—The team needs to avoid injuries, as several key players have gone down in recent weeks. In particular, concussions has become a recurring problem this season (can anyone remember a season that featured more head injuries?). There were two last week as Steven Thomas and Tucker Lamb both were knocked out in special teams play—neither will play this week. In addition, we lost Matt Bauman in the Oklahoma game and Scott Johnson in the Tulane game both to concussions. Four players in five games is staring to border on a serious issue. Will the team avoid a concussion this week?

• More than Cover the Spread—As this is a prime time game on the Mtn, the voters will not be watching and will only see the box score when all is said and done. In order to continue to move up the rankings, BYU needs to beat the teams it is supposed to and in a manner that is expected (whether fair or not). That means covering the spread at a minimum which is 16.5.

• Rushing and Total Offense—Harvey Unga looked quick and effective last week. Can he keep it up this week? UNLV gave up 559 yards rushing and 773 total yards to a winless Nevada team last week. Watch for Harvey and the other backs to exploit this and for BYU to go over 500 yards. Again whether fair or not, 773 is the number in the backs of all of the box score viewers minds…

• Filling in for McKay Jacobsen—after missing last week’s game with a hamstring injured while stretching in warm-ups, it was determined earlier this week that it is more serious than expected and Jacobsen will be out 4-6 weeks recovering. Ashworth filled in nicely last week. Hafoka seemed to be in the dog house after fumbling the first catch of the game. Watch for both of these receivers to have good games as the offense gets rolling.

• Dennis Pitta Encore—After his biggest game of the year last week and being named the John Mackey Award Tight End of the Week, Pitta could take advantage of the spotlight by adding to his stats and overall frontrunner status this week against a soft UNLV defense.

• Mike Sanford’s Final Game—Should UNLV get down early and give up on their head coach as they did last week, this will likely be Sanford’s last game in Sam Boyd Stadium. In order to keep his job, the Rebels don’t have to win the game, but they need to play hard from beginning to end. Anything less and Sanford might as well begin dusting off his golf clubs.

I think UNLV will come out swinging in the first half, play a good game, but will be outmatched by BYU’s talent. The Cougar offense will cut down on the turnovers (but likely still have at least one) and get into the end zone more than last week as they pull away in the second half. BYU ends up winning big and Sanford is out of a job before Monday. BYU 52, UNLV 13.

How do you see it playing out?  Post your own take and prediction below.