Independence and Exposure: Access vs. Eyeballs

I will go on record here as one that hopes independence works out.  (Right about now, some of you are blowing up...)  To clarify, I am not for independence at all costs--I am for it working out, as long as it is better than any conference affiliation: more freedom, more money, better recruiting, more relevance, easier TV access, higher rankings, better opponents, more games in new parts of the country, good rivalries, etc. 

I hope it is.  It may not be.  In fact, it is probably impossible to get all of those in either scenario.  So, it’s important to both define and prioritize those aspirations.  And, it probably doesn't matter how I would prioritize them... the administration has already claimed that exposure is the name of the game.  Fair enough.  And, actually, probably not a bad pick, as it encompasses nearly all of the items above (except perhaps money).

Hear (read) me out...

Exposure is a function of:

1. Being TV accessible to households (Access)

AND

2. Offering something that viewers will tune in to watch (Eyeballs)

Access

This means being on TV and being on stations that as many people as possible have access to.  BYU has effectively solved this problem.  In fact, they have knocked it out of the park.  Between ESPN and BYUtv, the Cougars likely have more Access than any other team in the country... and it might not even be close, considering the ubiquity of BYUtv in the US as well as its international reach.  Only 3-4 other teams had as many as 10 games on an ESPN network.  And, no other team gets every last one of their 3rd tier games broadcast in 70M homes and across the world.

So… access, check-plus….

Advantage: Independence.

Eyeballs

Getting viewers is another story… just because it’s on, doesn’t mean people will watch it.  There are several factors that make people want to watch your game (1-4 apply to both the team’s fanbase and the casual opportunistic viewer, while 5 pertains just to the teams fanbase):

1. Opponents: Who you are playing 
   o   Quality of opponents (ranked, brand names)  
   o   Region of country they are from  
   o   Opponents’ fan interest

2. Performance: How good your team is (record/ranking)
   o   Quality athletes (recruiting)  

   o   Competent coaching  

   o   Competitive facilities 

   o   Money to pay for coaches, facilities, and recruiting 

3. Relevance: What you are playing for and implications of outcome 
   o   BCS, conference championship, bowl game invitations 
4. Time Slot: What day and time do you play in 
5.  Competitive: How close is the game 
6. Watch-ability: Exciting style of play

So how is BYU doing on these metrics…

1. Opponents. This one is improving and looking up.  There are still some remnants of the WAC agreement on the 2012 schedule, but beyond that, the team is getting around the country, playing quality teams.  Conference affiliation with a major conference could also solve this, though with less freedom and regional variety. 

Advantage: Independence.

Task: Continue to prioritize scheduling of quality opponents, and if that proves too difficult, consider conference affiliation.

2. Performance.  As far as team quality goes… coaches, facilities, and money are essentially neutral, as BYU would not do much differently even with more; the bigger question then is recruiting, and whether one situation or another provides improved recruiting outcomes.   
Advantage: To be determined.

Task:  Closely follow the impacts of independence on recruiting.

3. Relevance.   As for implications of the outcome, unless BYU is in the BCS discussion (undefeated?), conference affiliation would be better.

Advantage: Conference.

Task: Win.  Consider creating things to play for (e.g. an independent championship?). Sign contracts for outcome-dependent post-season play.  Or, consider conference membership.

4. Time slot.  This depends on when you play as well as who else is playing at the same time.  Despite BYU’s late night kickoffs and Thur/Friday games, this last season, this was probably not a hindrance to viewership (though could be for game attendance).   More people are likely to watch the only game on a Friday night than a mediocre game on prime time (see Utah game).  And, even in a conference, they will be in the same boat.

Advantage: Neutral.

Task: Continue as is.

5. Competitivity.  This isn’t related to conference affiliation, as there will be close games and blowouts in both instances.

Advantage: Neutral.

Task: None.

6. Watch-ability.  The high-flying offensive reputation that BYU earned in the 1980’s, and still carries to some degree, is no longer accurate.  The number of low scoring games and 3-and-outs this season was more than I ever remember.  I am a passionate fan, and found myself bored at times by the drudgery of our offense.  I was usually more excited to watch our defense than our offense.  Exposure will truly “expose” the Cougars here.

Advantage: Neutral.

Task:  Utilize a more exciting style of play. 

Final Tally

Access: Independence

Eyeballs: Independece 1, Conference 1, Neutral 2, TBD 1, Unrelated 2

        Opponents: Independence

        Performance: TBD

        Relevance: Conference

        Time Slot: Neutral

        Competitivity: Neutral

        Watchability: Unrelated

Independence is clearly better for access (though a conference affiliation might come close, depending on the way contracts are negotiated).  That is generally undisputed.  But, it is also only half the battle.

As for eyeballs, it is currently a draw, though any negative impacts on recruiting from independence (or missed positive impacts from a conference), and thus impacts on team performance, should be closely monitored.  Additionally, employing a more exciting style of offensive play would add eyeballs regardless of the conference status, which in an independent world, might be essential.

So there you have it.  “Exposure” really is much more than being on TV, and as long as the administration is thinking of it in these terms—access AND eyeballs—I trust that they will be on top of things and make the best decision.

Key Offseason Dates to Remember

Here are a few key 2010 dates for Cougar football fans to keep in mind as the offseason gets into full swing…

January 23 – East West Shrine Game (Orlando, FL)
Max Hall, Dennis Pitta, and Jan Jorgensen will play in the 85th East West Shrine game that kicks off at 3pm EST and will be televised on ESPN2.

Feb 3 - Signing Day
The Class of 2010 will finally fax in their forms in the morning, allowing coaches to finally comment on them. Watch for BYU to hold a press conference touting this top 20 recruiting class in the stadium Cougar Room sometime late morning or early afternoon.

Feb 24-Mar 2 – NFL Scouting Combine
Max Hall, Dennis Pitta, and Manase Tonga have been invited to participate in this year’s event.

Early March – BYU Pro Day
NFL scouts will descend on campus for one day for the departing seniors to show off their skills in advance of the draft. Hall, Pitta and Tonga, will have the option to try to better any of their scores from the combine, while other seniors such as Andrew George, RJ Willing, Colby Clausen, Matt Bauman, Scott Johnson, Brett Denney, and Sam Doman will be given their one and only shot to impress the observers and try to land a free agent spot. [If you know when this is being held, please share, and I’ll update the list…]

March 15 - Spring Practice Begins
This is the much anticipated debut of several members of the Class of 2010 that have already enrolled in school to ensure participation in spring ball, including Jake Heaps (QB), Ross Apo (WR), Kyle Van Noy (LB), and Josh Quezada (RB). This will also be the first appearances of the Class of 2007 return missionary freshmen Devin Mahina (TE), Famika Anae (OL), and Marcus Matthews (WR). The story of spring ball will be the battle for starting quarterback with Riley Nelson (Jr) returning, James Lark (Fr), and Heaps all vying for the spot.

April 10 - Blue and White Spring Game
After not playing last year due to stadium field upgrades (although that is debatable given how the field performed this year), the game is back on the schedule, and likely to be appreciated more than in the past. Significant interest will also be generated by the QB lineup.

April 22-24 - NFL Draft
For the first time ever, the NFL draft will begin by holding the first round in prime time on a Thursday night. Selections will commence at 7:30pm ET. The second and third rounds will be held on Friday, April 23 beginning at 6:30pm ET. Rounds 4-7 will be on Saturday April 24 beginning at 10am ET. Of the BYU players that have entered the draft, only Pitta has a realistic shot at Friday, with most of the other players hoping to hear their names called in late rounds on Saturday. Watch for a number of free agent contracts to be signed by the undrafted.

Early August – Fall Practice Begins
I have been unable to track down the exact date for this. If you have it, please pass it along to the rest of us. This will be the first official gathering of the remainder of the class of 2010 (non-early enrollees) and the other return missionaries with the returning players from the 2009 team. With numerous high profile and talented newcomers, a number of key position openings, and a wealth of returning talent, this should be an exciting fall camp.

September 4 – Season Begins (non-conf games)
September 4 – Washington (home)
September 18 – Florida State (road)
September 25 – Nevada (home)
October 1 – Utah State (road)

Observations on BYU's Last Seven Freshman All-Americans

Braden Hansen, the freshman who started every game at left guard for the Cougars this past season, was selected as a Freshman All-American by the Football Writers Association. This is the seventh year in a row that BYU has had a Freshman All-American named, dating back to 2003. Here is the press release from BYU:

PROVO, Utah (Jan. 7, 2009) – BYU freshman offensive lineman Braden Hansen was named a Freshman All-America Thursday by the Football Writers Association of America.

A Sandy, Utah, native, Hansen started every game at left guard as one of four new starters on BYU’s offensive line in 2009. The 6-foot-6, 300-pound redshirt freshman was a key contributor in helping BYU achieve an 11-2 record, including a 3-1 mark against nationally ranked opponents.

Hansen and Wyoming safety Shamiel Gary represent the Mountain West Conference on the 28-man team. The FWAA and Aon Insurance announced their ninth annual Freshman All-America Team Thursday during the association's annual awards breakfast.

BYU has had a newcomer earn Freshman All-America accolades each of the past seven seasons. Hansen joins a list of consecutive honorees that include offensive lineman Matt Reynolds (2008), running back Harvey Unga (2007), defensive end Jan Jorgensen (2006), offensive lineman Dallas Reynolds (2005), wide receiver Austin Collie (2004) and tight end Daniel Coats (2003).

That is an impressive seven year run. I thought it would be interesting to take a closer look at each of these players—how highly recruited they were, how productive they were in their sophomore, junior, and senior seasons, and if they have had any success in the NFL.


Daniel Coats (2003)
Recruiting: Class of 2002, 3 stars on Scout, ranked #42 WR, offers to Colorado and NC State
BYU: Always a solid blocker, though receiving stats never surpassed 2003
2003—30/378, 4TD
2004—13/160, 0TD
2005—21/189, 3TD
2006—22/239, 2TD
NFL: Free agent pick up, with Cincinnati Bengals, 3rd year in NFL, started 11 games, 16/150 yds

Austin Collie (2004)
Recruiting: Class of 2004, 3 stars on Scout, ranked #48 WR, offers to Stanford, Arizona State, Wash State
BYU: Increasingly productive at BYU, left after junior year as all-time leading receiver in yards (3,258) and receptions (215)
2004—53/771, 8 TD
2007—56/946, 7TD
2008—106/1538, 15 TD; Led NCAA in yards
NFL: 4th round draft pick of Indianapolis Colts, 60/676 yds, 7 TD; led all rookies in catches and TDs

Dallas Reynolds (2005)
Recruiting: Class of 2003, 3 stars on Scout, ranked #78 OL, offers to Colorado, Tennessee, Stanford
BYU: Started all 51 games while at BYU, first Team MWC
NFL: Free agent with the Philadelphia Eagles in 2009, practice squad for most of year

Jan Jorgensen (2006)
Recruiting: Class of 2005, 1 star on Scout (unrated), not ranked LB
BYU: Started 51 consecutive games, 30 sacks in BYU career, career MWC leader, 3 time first team MWC, most productive sophomore season (14 sacks)
NFL: Will enter 2010 draft, projected as a free agent

Harvey Unga (2007)
Recruiting: Class of 2005, 2 stars on Scout, not ranked RB, offer from Utah
BYU: Started all three years and had 1,000+ yards each season; only a junior and already BYU career leader in rushing yards, third in all-purpose yards; 2009 first team MWC
2007—244/1,227 rushing 13 TD, 44/655 receiving 4 TD
2008—240/1,153 rushing 11 TD, 42/309 receiving 4 TD
2009—208/1,087 rushing 11 TD, 16/121 receiving 1 TD
NFL: Deciding whether to enter 2010 draft, projection uncertain

Matt Reynolds (2008)
Recruiting: Class of 2005, 4 stars on Scout, #8 ranked OL, offers from UCLA, Cal, Arizona, Arizona State
BYU: first team MWC sophomore season (2009)
NFL: Likely to participate in 2012 draft (or sooner), highly projected

Braden Hansen (2009)
Recruiting: Class of 2006, 2 stars on Scout, not ranked OL, offer from Stanford
BYU: TBD
NFL: TBD

A few interesting observations:

1. Overall a great group of players—we were lucky to have four of them together on the team this season. We actually had five of them last season (2008).

2. BYU owes a debt of large proportions to Mrs. Reynolds, showing tangibly that Bronco’s decision to retain Lance Reynolds on his staff has paid off multiple times over.

3. None of these players were true freshmen. Even those that didn’t go on missions (Coats, Jorgensen, Unga) still waited at least a year or two before starting as a redshirt freshman. Makes you wonder who on this year’s practice squad might be next year’s FAA.

4. All of them went on to have very productive four year (or three for Collie and possibly Unga) careers for the Cougars. They have also proven very durable with none of them ever missing any significant amount of time due to injury.

5. The first three, and only three to already have had a shot at the NFL, have made it with Collie and Coats as solid contributors this season.

6. There is one from every class 2002-2006. Three of them (Jorgensen, Unga, Matt Reynolds) come from the class of 2005. Hansen, this year’s winner is from the class of 2006. This again shows the lag that BYU experiences in recruiting (see article on the topic here: http://www.byucougs.com/2009/12/recruiting-lag-look-at-contributions-by.html), as other schools are already graduating players from the class of 2006.

7. Interesting that three of them are on the offensive line, given that BYU doesn’t usually like to start freshmen there, allowing them time to learn the system. But then again, that also means that for a freshman to start on the line, they must be very good.

In 2009, besides Hansen and Riley Stephenson (punter), I can’t think of any other freshmen that started, and only Brett Thompson, Craig Bills, and a couple of backup O linemen seemed to get any meaningful reps.

Given the historical precedent of the past seven years, the classes of 2007, 2008, and 2009 likely still hold players who will be named FAA. Next year, with a number of key openings and many talented newcomers, could be a year that offers more opportunities for freshman than in several years. Among those most likely to get playing time and make themselves candidates for FAA status are whoever starts as QB (Heaps or Lark) if it isn’t Nelson, an RB if Harvey leaves for the NFL (either Malosi Teo or Josh Quezada), a TE (Devin Mahina, Austin Holt, or Mike Muehlmann), Ross Apo or Marcus Matthews at the WR spot (both will likely be in the rotation), a LB (Kyle Van Noy and Zac Stout will both have shots to play given that there will be three openings), and on the DL with all three slots open (Bronson Kaufusi and Kona Schwenke would be the leading candidates, although I am unaware of their mission plans). There may be more freshmen playing next year than in a long time. BYU will need these players to step up next season, so here is my toast to the freshmen of 2010… may one of you be the next FAA!

What other observations do you have to add about the 7 FAAs, next year's freshmen or this year's freshmen?

Recruiting Lag: A Look at Contributions by Class

With Jake Heaps and Ross Apo signing grant-in-aid agreements with BYU earlier this week, the recruiting talk is getting under way once again and will soon be in full swing filling its role as fan board fodder between bowl season and spring ball. It also makes for an interesting time to take a look at the lag that BYU often experiences from when a player signs until he begins to contribute on the field. Every school faces a similar lag, but at BYU, with so many players leaving on missions either before or after their freshman seasons, it is much more pronounced.

For example, the elusive Andrew George, splitter of Utes and defender of (Beehive) Boots, was actually part of the class of 2002. Brett Denney and RJ Willing were both in the class of 2003. And 2004 and 2005? More of the same.

Players Contributing in 2009 by Recruiting Class (class in 2009)
2002
Andrew George (Sr)

2003
Mitch Payne (Jr)
RJ Willing (Sr)
Dan Van Sweden (Sr)
Brett Denney (Sr)

2004
Terrence Brown (So)
Nick Alletto (Jr)
Matt Putnam (So)

2005
Manase Tonga (Sr)
Harvey Unga (Jr)
Spencer Hafoka (So)
Luke Ashworth (Jr)
Jan Jorgensen (Sr)
Terrance Hooks (Sr)
Matt Reynolds (So)
Shawn Doman (Sr)
Vic So’oto (Jr)
Russell Tialavea (Sr)
Stephen Covey (So)

2006
Brandon Bradley (Jr)
Brandon Ogletree (Fr)
Braden Hansen (Fr)
Romney Fuga ( So)
Ian Dulan (Jr, mission)
Mike Muellman (Fr)
Max Hall (Sr)
Ryan Freeman (So)
Riley Stephenson (Fr)
Robbie Buckner (Fr)
James Lark (Fr, mission)
Rhen Brown (Fr)
McKay Jacobsen (So)
Mike Hague (So)

OK, so everyone already knows that some of BYU’s players take two years out. And we covered that already here: http://www.byucougs.com/2009/09/numbers-inside-missionary-advantage.html. But here is the interesting part. In 2003, 2004, and 2005 BYU was recruiting on the heels of consecutive losing seasons. Due to misconduct, the 2004 class was decimated, and the effects are still being felt. In 2005, while technically Bronco’s first class, there was no one steering the ship during critical recruiting periods while the coaching hire saga was playing out, and the program essentially took what they could and/or players willing to be loyal through the transition, which fortunately turned out to be some great players, but was not a proactive targeted, recruiting approach by any means.

So 2006 is effectively Bronco’s first recruiting class. It is just beginning to contribute and the majority of players from that class were freshmen or sophomores this season, and even so, many of them were significant contributors.

What all of this means is that during a period of unprecedented success in BYU football (four consecutive years with 10+ wins—never before done), the team has been playing with a patchwork of recruits, JC transfers, walk-ons, and young contributors. But that era is coming to an end. While fans may not see many in the class of 2009 until 2011 or beyond (for those who choose to serve a mission), the class of 2006 is back and has a year under their belts. The class of 2007 is back and ready to go this spring. Some in the class of 2008 will be back before the fall. So while other schools are bidding farewell to the class of 2006 this winter, the Cougars are finally getting a look at theirs.

And with the signing of Ross and Jake and the many others that will follow them in February, BYU will have its best class ever. And for the first time since 2000, that class will be playing on a team that is almost completely composed of recruits from the current coaching staff.

A Summer Review

[Originally Posted July 28, 2009 at www.philsteele.com/Blogs/Individual_Team_blogs/BYU_Blog.html]

Welcome Back.

Whether you spend hours a day worshipping at the shrine of your preferred patron fan board or are just getting back up to speed on the team happenings over the summer, as college football fans we are universally anticipating the arrival of opening kickoff… or, in reality, for many of us even the start of fall camp in a few days will begin to satisfy our thirst for action after the long summer drought. That said, I hope that you have had a summer full of adventure and have big plans to take advantage of what still remains, because I already know that your September, October and November Saturdays are booked.

This opening blog is dedicated to helping fans who took the summer off to quickly catch up on the top stories since spring camp (April, May, June, July). The next entry will take a look ahead at key stories going in to fall camp.

BYU Football Top Summer Stories

1. Recruiting—I will be the first to recognize that recruiting hype is just that. It doesn’t directly do a thing for the scoreboard, which at the end is just about all that will matter. But with that caveat, or perhaps because of it, recruiting was the top story of BYU football this summer. Based on the 20 known commitments the program has received thus far, BYU is on track to land its highest rated (which hopefully translates to most talented) class ever. The class is headlined by Jake Heaps, a 6’-2”/195 lb two-time state champion QB from the Seattle, WA area. He was offered a scholarship by just about every major program in the country, is rated the number one player in the country by Scout, and was the winner of the MVP at the Elite 11 QB camp in California last week. That in itself might get fans excited, but what has really fired up the Cougar Faithful, is the ownership Jake has been taking of his own class. Beginning with a press conference in June to announce his commitment, where he introduced fellow commits Ross Apo (WR previously committed to Texas) and Zac Stout (rated top five linebacker in US by Scout), Jake has blossomed into a one-man recruiting pitch to some of the top talent around. No doubt in part due to this influence, BYU is winning head to head recruiting battles with the best of them and fans are energized.

2. Personnel—It is not uncommon for adjustments to be made to the roster in the offseason. Players transfer or move on. Others never recover from injury. Some don’t qualify. This summer is not any different. Although what may be changing is the 24/7 media coverage of such changes, which creates headlines and chat room frenzy out of each one. These are the roster situations that caused a stir this summer:

-Russell Tialavea, senior starting nose tackle unexpectedly decided to apply for missionary service and will likely not participate with the team this fall, leaving an unexpected and potentially vulnerable hole in the middle. Word is that there is a slight chance (very slight) that he may not enter the Missionary Training Center until after the season, and would therefore be able to participate.

-Brandon Howard, starting corner, has left school for personal reasons and is not expected back

-Matt Ah-You, senior backup linebacker, has left school in hopes of an opportunity to start with another program. Although not a starter, he provided valuable depth to the linebacking corps.

-Bernard Afutiti, after some impressive practices and a redshirt year, coaches, teammates and fans were looking forward to having him on the field this fall, but he wasn’t able to get it done in the classroom, and is academically ineligible.

-Manase Tonga, senior fullback, is expected to rejoin the team this fall, pending academic performance in a few classes on campus this summer. Suspended from school for academic reasons, he spent the last year working on his grades and degree progress at Utah Valley University, and could be an extremely valuable piece of the puzzle in the backfield this fall.

-Jamie Hill, defensive coordinator, will have full responsibility for calling the defensive plays this season, a duty that he was heavily involved with last year, but now becomes his.

3. MWC and the BCS—After the on field performance by Mountain West Conference teams last season, the off season was spent by conference big wigs shining a light on the issue. First it was a playoff proposal sponsored by the MWC at the NCAA meetings. Then it was BCS anti-trust hearings in the US Congress sponsored by Utah Senator Orrin Hatch. A big deal was made about signing (or at least waiting until the last minute) to sign the new BCS television deal with ESPN. Of course all of this culminated with speculative talk of adding Boise State to the league—the vibe seems to be tilting to a ‘not if, but when’ scenario. Not many people, if any (including conference and school executives), expected any actual near-term changes to come out of all of the activity, but if the goal was to raise the conference profile, increase national awareness, and put a big fat spotlight on this upcoming season, then it was a success.

4. Riley Nelson Rule—A little known and relatively obscure rule change was passed at the NCAA gathering this summer that has come to be known among Cougar Fans as the Riley Nelson rule. The rule, sponsored by Utah State, makes changes to how missions are treated for transfer purposes and essentially requires that a returning missionary must sit out a year should he decide to transfer, just like any other athlete that remained in the program. It is unclear what impact this will have on the program, but caused a bit of a local ruckus among finger-pointing fans in the Beehive State, when it was learned that Utah State QB Riley Nelson would be transferring to BYU upon completion of his missionary service.

5. MWC Media Days—As per tradition, the media gathered in Las Vegas during the second to last week in July and talked football with the coaches and a few players from each team. The outcome of preseason (and essentially meaningless) polls has the Cougars finishing second to TCU (Utah third), with QB Max Hall as the MVP, and along with RB Harvey Unga, TE Dennis Pitta, and OL Matt Reynolds selected to the first team.

6. Oklahoma—Finally, there has been buzz around the Oklahoma game circled on September 5th on prime time ESPN. The Cougars are expected to be heavy underdogs, but summer chatter has focused on just about every aspect of that game—The chances the team will have in that game. How we stack up. What adjustments should be made to give the team its best chance. The new stadium. Its scoreboard.—Fans quickly gobbled up available tickets and are busy planning trips to Dallas.