High in the Blue

Independence and Exposure: Access vs. Eyeballs

2012-01-28T14:47:00.000-08:00

I will go on record here as one that hopes independence works out. (Right about now, some of you are blowing up...) To clarify, I am not for independence at all costs--I am for it working out, as long as it is better than any conference affiliation: more freedom, more money, better recruiting, more relevance, easier TV access, higher rankings, better opponents, more games in new parts of the country, good rivalries, etc.

I hope it is. It may not be. In fact, it is probably impossible to get all of those in either scenario. So, it’s important to both define and prioritize those aspirations. And, it probably doesn't matter how I would prioritize them... the administration has already claimed that exposure is the name of the game. Fair enough. And, actually, probably not a bad pick, as it encompasses nearly all of the items above (except perhaps money).

Hear (read) me out...

Exposure is a function of:

1. Being TV accessible to households (Access)

AND

2. Offering something that viewers will tune in to watch (Eyeballs)

Access

This means being on TV and being on stations that as many people as possible have access to. BYU has effectively solved this problem. In fact, they have knocked it out of the park. Between ESPN and BYUtv, the Cougars likely have more Access than any other team in the country... and it might not even be close, considering the ubiquity of BYUtv in the US as well as its international reach. Only 3-4 other teams had as many as 10 games on an ESPN network. And, no other team gets every last one of their 3rd tier games broadcast in 70M homes and across the world.

So… access, check-plus….

Advantage: Independence.

Eyeballs

Getting viewers is another story… just because it’s on, doesn’t mean people will watch it. There are several factors that make people want to watch your game (1-4 apply to both the team’s fanbase and the casual opportunistic viewer, while 5 pertains just to the teams fanbase):

1. Opponents: Who you are playing
   o   Quality of opponents (ranked, brand names)
   o   Region of country they are from
   o   Opponents’ fan interest

2. Performance: How good your team is (record/ranking)
   o   Quality athletes (recruiting)

o Competent coaching

o Competitive facilities

o Money to pay for coaches, facilities, and recruiting

3. Relevance: What you are playing for and implications of outcome
o BCS, conference championship, bowl game invitations
4. Time Slot: What day and time do you play in
5. Competitive: How close is the game
6. Watch-ability: Exciting style of play

So how is BYU doing on these metrics…

1. Opponents. This one is improving and looking up. There are still some remnants of the WAC agreement on the 2012 schedule, but beyond that, the team is getting around the country, playing quality teams. Conference affiliation with a major conference could also solve this, though with less freedom and regional variety.

Advantage: Independence.

Task: Continue to prioritize scheduling of quality opponents, and if that proves too difficult, consider conference affiliation.

2. Performance. As far as team quality goes… coaches, facilities, and money are essentially neutral, as BYU would not do much differently even with more; the bigger question then is recruiting, and whether one situation or another provides improved recruiting outcomes.
Advantage: To be determined.

Task: Closely follow the impacts of independence on recruiting.

3. Relevance. As for implications of the outcome, unless BYU is in the BCS discussion (undefeated?), conference affiliation would be better.

Advantage: Conference.

Task: Win. Consider creating things to play for (e.g. an independent championship?). Sign contracts for outcome-dependent post-season play. Or, consider conference membership.

4. Time slot. This depends on when you play as well as who else is playing at the same time. Despite BYU’s late night kickoffs and Thur/Friday games, this last season, this was probably not a hindrance to viewership (though could be for game attendance). More people are likely to watch the only game on a Friday night than a mediocre game on prime time (see Utah game). And, even in a conference, they will be in the same boat.

Advantage: Neutral.

Task: Continue as is.

5. Competitivity. This isn’t related to conference affiliation, as there will be close games and blowouts in both instances.

Advantage: Neutral.

Task: None.

6. Watch-ability. The high-flying offensive reputation that BYU earned in the 1980’s, and still carries to some degree, is no longer accurate. The number of low scoring games and 3-and-outs this season was more than I ever remember. I am a passionate fan, and found myself bored at times by the drudgery of our offense. I was usually more excited to watch our defense than our offense. Exposure will truly “expose” the Cougars here.

Advantage: Neutral.

Task: Utilize a more exciting style of play.

Final Tally

Access: Independence

Eyeballs: Independece 1, Conference 1, Neutral 2, TBD 1, Unrelated 2

Opponents: Independence

Performance: TBD

Relevance: Conference

Time Slot: Neutral

Competitivity: Neutral

Watchability: Unrelated

Independence is clearly better for access (though a conference affiliation might come close, depending on the way contracts are negotiated). That is generally undisputed. But, it is also only half the battle.

As for eyeballs, it is currently a draw, though any negative impacts on recruiting from independence (or missed positive impacts from a conference), and thus impacts on team performance, should be closely monitored. Additionally, employing a more exciting style of offensive play would add eyeballs regardless of the conference status, which in an independent world, might be essential.

So there you have it. “Exposure” really is much more than being on TV, and as long as the administration is thinking of it in these terms—access AND eyeballs—I trust that they will be on top of things and make the best decision.

Key Offseason Dates to Remember--2012

2012-01-16T14:12:00.000-08:00

Although college basketball is in full swing, nothing can really replace the passion for the pigskin. Here are some upcoming dates to give you an off-season football fix, and help you plan your spring break (Provo in March), family reunions (Indiana in October?), and fall ward camp-outs (pick the Weber State game if you have to).

Jan 21--East West Shrine Game, 4pm Eastern, NFL Network
Matt Reynolds will be playing in this senior showcase event.

Feb 1--Signing Day
The Cougars anticipate signing 16-18 athletes in a small but loaded 2012 Class.

Feb 22-28 NFL Scouting Combine
Matt Reynolds is likely to be the only Cougar at this invite-only affair.

Mar 5-30--Spring Camp
This is one of the earlier starts for spring ball, and should allow the players to wrap up early and focus on finals.

Early or Mid March--NFL Pro Day
NFL scouts descend on the indoor practice facility en masse, to test and time many of BYU's 19 seniors hoping for a shot a the League. Keep an eye out for Matt Reynolds, Jordan Pendleton (if he is ready to go), and a pair of defensive linemen: Hebron Fangupo and Matt Putnam..

Apr 26-28 NFL Draft
Again, Reynolds is likely to be the only Cougar selected, but watch for a few to sign free agent contracts and tickets to fall camp.

Early August (TBA)--Fall Camp Begins
Camp should open with plenty of new and returning talent, and the annual optimism and accompanying expectations.

Sep 1--Opening Kickoff at Home vs. Washington State
Opening day is always much anticipated... But, you should also keep in mind the following games for planning purposes:
Sep 8--Weber State
Sep 15--Utah
Sep 22--Boise State
Oct 20--Notre Dame

Cougars Finish on Both Sides of the Rankings Cutoff

2012-01-10T01:06:00.000-08:00

BYU finished the season ranked 25th in the USA Today/Coaches poll, and just out of the rankings at 26th in the AP poll. As predicted they needed one more of the teams just ahead of them to lose in the AP to sneak in and it didn't happen.

In fact, BYU could blame, or thank, USC for the final reckoning. The Trojans finished ranked 6th in the AP poll, nudging BYU down one spot and out of the rankings, but were ineligible for the coaches poll, therefore letting the Cougars sneak in.

All in all, it was a fitting way to end the season, as it was symbolic of the season itself. Good but not always good enough. And, despite its 10-3 record, hadn't really proved itself worthy of a ranking, having beaten the teams that it should have, and lost when given an opportunity to play themselves in. Once could argue both sides, and fittingly the rankings also rewarded them with a finish on both sides of the cutoff.

How Bowl Dominoes Must Fall for BYU to Get Ranked

2011-12-29T00:04:00.000-08:00

As I watched part of the Holiday Bowl tonight, I found myself cheering for Texas, given that it seemed to have the most impact on BYU, at least as far as perception goes. You hate to see a team that the Cougars lost to, lose. On the other hand, the Texas win might garner them some votes (finished 24 in the BCS, but no real votes in the polls).

That got me thinking, what will it take for BYU to get ranked... They need to win, and the bigger the better. But, which teams ahead of them need to lose? In other words, who should true Cougar fans be cheering for over the next several days?

First, watch the Cougs win big. Then, cheer hard for Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Houston, and Clemson. At least one of them has to win, and two would be safer. If you still have any cheering power left, hope that Georgia Tech and Auburn pull it out, and that Northern Illinois and Arkansas St play to a close game. There you go.

Here's why...

In the final regular season poll, BYU finished #29 in the AP poll, and #26 in the USA Today/Coaches poll. Its possible that at least one or two teams beneath them will leapfrog them in the final standings, so realistically, at least 2 teams above them need to lose for the coaches poll, and maybe 4-5 for the AP poll. Here are the games for all teams ranked 20-25 and getting votes (rankings in parenthesis: AP/Coaches):

A few relevant games have already been played:

Hawaii Bowl
(22/21) Southern Miss already beat Nevada 24-17

Independence Bowl
(32/28) Missouri already beat North Carolina 41-24

Key Games--In order for BYU to get ranked, at least one of these teams, and probably two will have to win:

Liberty Bowl, Dec 31
(27/24) Cincinnati vs. Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt. Vandy is only 6-6, so it might be a stretch to hope they win this one, but it would be big for the Cougs.

Capital One Bowl, Jan 2
(21/20) Nebraska vs (10/9) South Carolina
South Carolina. A loss to the #9 team may not make much of a dent in voters mind, so hope that Nebraska loses big.

Ticket City Bowl, Jan 2
(24/23) Penn State vs. (20/17) Houston
Houston. If Houston loses for only the second time this season, they won't fall far enough to make a difference. This one is perhaps the most likely so far.

Orange Bowl, Jan 4
West Virginia (23/22) vs. (15/14) Clemson
Clemson. West Virginia needs to lose and look bad doing it (see Capital One Bowl), as losing to a top 15 team is nothing to sneeze at.

Influential Games. These games will be relevant to the outcome. Although none are currenlty ranked ahead of BYU, a win could put them there, especially when coaches are anxious to get another school from their conference in the final rankings.

Champs Sports Bowl, Dec 29
(25/25) Florida State vs. (26/32) Notre Dame
Draw. Whichever team wins will be ranked ahead of BYU. Argument for FSU--perhaps losing a close one to the Irish would still let voters put the 'Noles ahead of the Cougs. Argument for ND--BYU plays them next year, so a strong finish this year bodes well for next year's ranking.

GoDaddy.com Bowl, Jan 8
(31/27) Northern Illinois vs. (28/30) Arkansas St
Hope for a close game. Both of these teams have 10 wins, so the winner will have 11. It will be hard to not rank them. However a BYU win over Tulsa would likely be a stronger win. Unlikely that either would leapfrog the Cougs, but a dominating win by one might be enough to launch them ahead.

Sun Bowl, Dec 31
(30/29) Georgia Tech vs. Utah
Georgia Tech. This one is a given. Hopefully, since a win over Utah this year won't be seen as a strong win, a 9-4 Yellow Jacket team would be unlikely to get enough of a bump to pass the Cougs.

Chik-fil-A Bowl, Dec 31
(33/32) Virginia vs. Auburn
Auburn. Despite a BCS rank of 25, Auburn doesn't have a single vote in the polls. A win would undoubtedly give them some votes, but not enough to get them ranked. Virginia on the other hand, could get a leap.

Assessing BYU’s Bowl Game TV Ratings

2011-12-28T08:19:00.000-08:00

With the Armed Forces Bowl coming up on Friday morning, and with an early kickoff set for 9am here, I anticipate that it won’t fare very well in the TV ratings game. That got me wondering how the other Armed Forces Bowls have done in that time slot and how BYU has done in general with their bowl game TV ratings. Let’s take a look…

First, the caveat that it is nearly impossible to compare TV ratings unless they were in the same time slot airing on the same day. Otherwise there are just too many variables that matter:

What day of the week was the game played? (Wed vs Saturday)
What day of the year? (on a holiday, during vacation days, before or after Christmas, etc)
What time of the day did it air? (late night or early morning vs. primetime)
How close was the game? (blowouts tend to lose viewers, overtime brings them in)
What buzz did the game have—were the teams ranked?
What channel was the game played on?
What else was airing at the same time on other stations? (e.g. Game 7 of the World Series being played during the most recent BYU-TCU game)

But yet, the temptation is too great, so I am going to do it anyway, though it is difficult to make any concrete conclusions. Here are the ratings from the last 7 bowl games BYU has participated in:

New Mexico Bowl
Year	Date	Day	Time	Teams	Rec	Rec	Score	Rating	Att
2011	17-Dec	7	2:00 PM	Temple-Wyoming	8-4	8-4	37-15	1.8	25,762
2010	18-Dec	7	2:00 PM	BYU-UTEP	6-6	6-6	52-24	2.11	32,424
2009	19-Dec	7	4:30 PM	Fresno St-Wyoming	8-4	6-6	28-35 OT	2.78	24,898
2008	20-Dec	7	2:30 PM	Colorado St-Fresno St	6-6	7-5	40-35	2.6	24,735
2007	22-Dec	7	4:30 PM	New Mexico-Nevada	8-4	6-6	23-0	1.96	30,233
2006	23-Dec	7	4:30 PM	New Mexico-SJSU	6-6	8-4	12-20	1.81	34,111
							AVE	2.18	28,694

Last year’s Cougar game, despite the worst incoming records in the game’s short history, and the blowout nature of the score (at one point it was 31-3), garnered just under the historical average TV rating. The only other notables are that the highest rated game was an overtime game, with a last possession game getting second highest. BYU also had the second highest attendance, only after the inaugural game with the home team.

Las Vegas Bowl
Year	Date	Day	Time	Teams	Rec	Rec	Score	Rating	Att
2011	22-Dec	5	8:00 PM	(8) Boise St-Arizona St	11-1	6-6	56-24	2.4	35,720
2010	22-Dec	4	8:00 PM	(10) Boise St-(20) Utah	11-1	10-2	26-3	3.78	41,923
2009	22-Dec	3	8:00 PM	(16)Oregon St-(15)BYU	8-4	10-2	20-44	2.58	40,018
2008	20-Dec	7	8:00 PM	Arizona-(17) BYU	7-5	10-2	31-21	2.5	40,047
2007	22-Dec	7	8:00 PM	(19) BYU-UCLA	10-2	6-6	17-16	2.48	40,712
2006	21-Dec	5	8:00 PM	(19) BYU-Oregon	10-2	7-5	38-8	1.97	44,615
2005	22-Dec	5	8:00 PM	California-BYU	7-4	6-5	35-28	2.4	40,053
2004	23-Dec	5	9:30 PM	Wyoming-UCLA	6-5	6-5	24-21	1.9	29,062
2003	24-Dec	4	7:30 PM	Oregon St-New Mexico	7-5	8-4	55-14	1.76	25,437
2002	25-Dec	4	4:30 PM	UCLA-New Mexico	7-5	7-6	27-13	2.9	30,324
							AVE	2.47	36,791

The Vegas Bowl also has BYU right at the ratings average for 4 of the 5 games played (though given that BYU is in 5 of the 10 games listed here, you could argue that BYU sets the average), the exception being the 2006 blowout (when it was 38-0 at one point). BYU’s highest rated game, in 2008, was also not close, but perhaps maintained its rating due to the fact that both teams were ranked. The highest rated games were last year’s game (21-3 combined record, both ranked), and a Christmas Day game in 2002. BYU also has 5 of the top 6 attended games.

Armed Forces Bowl (Ft. Worth Bowl)
Year	Date	Day	Time	Teams	Rec	Rec	Score	Rating	Att
2011	30-Dec	6	12:00 PM	BYU-Tulsa	9-3	8-4
2010	30-Dec	5	12:00 PM	Army-SMU	6-6	7-6	16-14	1.55	36,742
2009	31-Dec	5	12:00 PM	Houston-Air Force	10-3	7-5	20-47	1.83	41,414
2008	31-Dec	4	12:00 PM	Houston-Air Force	7-5	8-4	34-28	1.7	41,127
2007	31-Dec	2	12:30 PM	California-Air Force	6-6	9-3	42-36	1.99	40,975
2006	23-Dec	7	8:30 PM	Tulsa-Utah	8-4	7-5	13-25	2.03	32,412
2005	23-Dec	6	8:00 PM	Kansas-Houston	6-5	6-5	42-13	2.28	33,505
2004	23-Dec	5	6:30 PM	Marshall-Cincinnati	6-5	6-5	14-32	1.6	27,902
2003	23-Dec	3	7:30 PM	(18)Boise-(19)TCU	12-1	11-1	34-31	2.81	38,028
							AVE	1.97	36,513

BYU will be playing in the 9^th Armed Forces Bowl (originally the Fort Worth Bowl), and anything less than a 1.85 rating would be considered disappointing for ESPN (the average for the last 8 games). The highest rated game was the inaugural game, where they amazingly staged a matchup of ranked teams with a combined record of 23-2 (records like that generally only exist in BCS title games) which then played a nail-biter. This game used to be played prior to Christmas in a prime time slot, and actually had better ratings then (perhaps not competing with bigger bowls and higher ranked teams, and the later start time surely didn’t hurt), and hasn’t broken a 2.0 since. Should this year’s BYU game top 2.0, it would be considered a ratings success.

To put all of this in perspective, here is some context:

1.60 – BYU’s highest TV rating this season (Texas, UCF, USU)

2.34 – BYU’s average bowl game rating since 2005

2.92 – Ave for all non-BCS bowls last year

7.05 – Highest non-BCS bowl last year (Outback Bowl, Florida-Penn St)

7.20 – Ave for all of March Madness (2011)

8.09 – Ave BCS game 2010-11 season (excluding title game)

11.7 – NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship (2011)

15.3 – BCS title game 2010-11 season (Oregon-Auburn)

22.3 – NFL playoffs average (2011)

46.0 – Super Bowl (2011)

Now that we have covered all of that, what can we conclude? Really, only that BYU can be counted on to fill the seats and consistently bring ratings that meet expectations. You may not break any viewership records, but you won’t disappoint your advertisers (they know what they are getting), and will be solid in the time slot allotted.

College Football Playoffs Are a Goldmine

2011-12-27T07:58:00.000-08:00

With another college football bowl season having been sufficiently tampered with by the BCS to lose much of its luster, fans clamoring louder than ever for a playoff, and all-the-while the NCAA effectively looking the other way while the purse-strings of its post-season are given away to conference big-wigs and bowl committee fat cats, it is perhaps time to shout something in a language that the parties in power will listen to… "$$$!".

The current BCS system is quite lucrative for those involved (both personally and organizationally), and thus there has been very little momentum to change it. But greed (or self-interest as you may prefer to call it) could perhaps move them when nothing else will. So, that begs the question… just how much money would a college football playoff be worth? How much money is being left on the table? Knowing any additional revenue would have to feed more mouths, would it be enough make a difference?

To answer this, let’s take a look at the impact that March Madness, the NCAA Men’s basketball tournament has had on its respective basketball post-season, both in terms of ratings and revenue (2007-11 averages).

Average NCAA Men's Basketball TV Ratings (household ratings)

1.1 Regular season games (ave of 131 games on ESPN in 2011)

6.4 March Madness tournament (all games)

12.0 Championship game

The tournament represents a nearly a 6x bump over the regular season, with the championship about 2x that. Here is how the NFL stacks up, with a similar ratio for the championship and playoffs, only with the regular season appearing much more significant (who says that a playoff would eliminate the value of the regular season?).

Average NFL TV Ratings (household ratings)

10.0 Regular season games

20.2 Playoffs

43.7 Super Bowl

So what does College Football look like?

Average NCAA College Football TV Ratings (household ratings)

1.7 Regular season games

4.0 All bowl games

15.7 BCS Championship Game

In comparison to college basketball and the NFL, the obvious outlier here is the post-season, where the bowls are only about 25% of the championship ratings, even though you would expect it to be closer to half. And, considering that college football is more popular than college basketball (12% of American list it as their favorite sport and 53% consider themselves fans, compared to 4%/47% for college basketball, and 31%/63% for the NFL, per Gallup and Harris Interactive), you would expect that to potentially be even higher.

If you assume the same bump that college basketball gets, here are the projected college football playoff TV ratings:

Sport Reg Season Playoffs Championship

NCAA FB 1.7 4.0 (2.3x) 15.7 (9.0x)

Men’s BB 1.1 6.4 (6.1x) 12.0 (11.5x)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

NCAA FB (Proj) 1.7 10.5 (6.1x) 19.9 (11.5x)

How would those increased ratings translate into dollars? With its current TV ratings, the going ad rate is $1.14M for a 30 second commercial (2010). With a project 27% increase in ratings, we would assume a corresponding average 27% increase in ad rates to $1.45M.

The current contract with ESPN pays out $125M/year for four games (BCS title game, Fiest, Orange, and Sugar Bowl), getting the ratings and ad revenue above. A playoff would not only include a 27% increase in ad prices, but would also include several additional games. Assuming the title game generates the most revenue and in proportion with its ratings, the value of a playoff is below:

Format Title Game + Games $/Game Gross Gain

BCS (current) $51.3M 3 $24.6M $125M --

8 Team Playoff $61.3M 6 $32.5M $256M $131M

16 Team Playoff $61.3M 10 $32.5M $386M $261M

Moving to even an 8 team playoff would gross more than double the current take!! And a 16 team playoff? Triple!!!

After netting out the current revenue from the games that would be sucked into a playoff (average of $6.25M per game), the money being left on the table is still mind-boggling:

Format + Games Gross Less ($ x gm) Net Gain

BCS (current) 3 $125M -- --

8 Team Playoff 6 $256M $18.8M $112M

16 Team Playoff 10 $386M $43.8M $217M

Of course there are lots of other arguments for and against a playoff, but with dollars like these, it is only a matter of when—as we have seen, dollars are the only thing that matters (San Diego State in the Big East, anyone?). A playoff will happen.

So why hasn’t it happened yet? One can only believe that those in charge are able to see the $$$ writing on the wall, and are trying to figure out how to move toward a playoff AND keep the piggy bank. A quick or radical change would likely involve splitting up the new revenue much more equally than will be required if they can do it slowly.

Media Reaction to BYU and the Big East

2011-11-25T10:52:00.000-08:00

Now that BYU's discussions with the Big East have been reported to be over, several media reports are trying to make sense of it and to place "blame". First of all, blame would assume that there was a desired outcome to begin with, but then should it not materialize, it would point the finger of fault at the offending unmet stipulation.

And in this case, I have read several times that BYU's offense was in seeking to maintain TV rights to its home games. "No other college team in a conference has been able to get this," they mock. Well, perhaps we should point out that it has probably never previously, in any conference realignment discussions been a point of negotiation. BYU is one of only two schools that have ever had its own TV deal. Ever. The other being Notre Dame. And you can be sure that if Notre Dame were to join a conference, they would look to keep their existing TV deal at as a guaranteed minimum and to top it off with the additional TV revenue from conference road games.

In that context, it doesn't seem unreasonable that a team would want to at least maintain its current standard of living (revenue and exposure) as it joins a conference. In that context, it also seems rather naive to use the argument that no other team in college football has kept their home TV rights within a conference... no other team has ever been in a position to even try.

Senior Night on BYUtv

2011-11-23T13:19:00.000-08:00

If you were not able to watch the senior night blanket ceremony after the New Mexico State game on Saturday, you need to. It can be seen here and starts at the 3:30 mark.

I have attend many senior nights in the past (final home game), and enjoyed the experience; however this year watching it on BYUtv, as it was televised for the first time, was perhaps my favorite.

The cameras were able to capture the feeling and emotion of the moment on the faces of the players (the score on the TV didn't hurt either). I found my own memories and emotions welling up as I remembered the feeling of walking off the field for the last time. It was a quasi Rudy moment...

Besides the emotion and facial expressions, it was great to see their relationship with Bronco reflected in that interaction. I also enjoyed seeing their families with them--wife, kids, parents--and even a few legends (LaVell, Austin Collie, Danny Frazier, etc).

The only shame of the whole thing is that the stadium was empty. No doubt this was a function of the mid-20 degree temps and the fact that it was taking place at around midnight--unfortunate collateral circumstances of the late ESPN start time.

Going forward, a great BYU tradition would be for all BYU fans to remain on Senior Night--for there to be a stadium full of appreciative fans saluting those who have worked so hard and sacrificed so much to wear the blue and white.. whether they ever saw the field or not. And whether you can attend in person or not, you should make it a point to catch it on TV, year in and year out.

Numbers on Helmets Flying Off

2011-10-27T11:14:00.000-07:00

So last week I mentioned the incredible number of instances that BYU players were losing helmets. The coaches made it a point of emphasis in team meetings last week and asked all of the players to tighten their chin straps. The results were dramatic. I only remember seeing 1-2 helmets come off in the Idaho State game, as opposed to the 15-25 per game previously (often multiple on the same play).

Well, it turns out that the NCAA has asked the referees to count instances of helmets coming off this season, and the number per this USA Today Article is 407 in the FBS through week 6. That seems incredibly low--120 teams, 6 weeks--that means each team would only average losing one helmet every other game or so. BYU alone was losing by my estimate 15-25 per game. At an average of 20 per game, 120 instances would be just from BYU... more than a quarter of them all. So, either the number is severely underreported, or BYU really has a unique and significant problem on its hands. Perhaps the answer is both... given the improvement in the last game after making changes, it would appear that much of it was on BYU; though the number 407 cannot possibly be an accurate count for all 120 teams through 6 weeks... more likely 3-4x that.

Reflections on Visit to Corvallis and Oregon State

2011-10-20T03:18:00.000-07:00

I had a wonderful visit in Corvallis last weekend... it was a great day for a football game--nice stadium, crisp fall weather, and a beautiful drive through northern California (Around the Trinity Alps, under the shadow of Mt Shasta, over the many rivers of Southern Oregon, and through its hamlet-like mill-dotted valleys).

I won't really comment much on the game itself as it has been well-covered elsewhere, but in no particular order, here are a few other observations and miscellaneous thoughts:

The OSU fans were friendly, but rather indifferent. I don't have many data points, and others may have had other experiences, but I didn't sense the hospitality and gracious welcome that I felt in Oxford from Mississippi fans, or in Dallas from Oklahoma fans, for example. Those around me (before, during, and after the game) didn't actually say much of anything.
The stadium was nice, but rather small. On TV they made it look like a massive, NFL-like structure... And it was--on one side. One side of the stadium had been renovated with an upper deck and dozens of new luxury suites--the fruits of BCS money and major conference TV revenue, not on field success or fan base. The other sideline most closely resembled a Texas high school stadium and the end zones were along the lines of Utah high school stadiums.
I was able to sit next to two of Cody Hoffman's neighbors (a couple, perhaps in their late 50's). They said that he used to come over and jump on the trampoline in their backyard growning up. They had driven up from Crescent City spontaneously to see him and then to take in the Oregon game later that evening. I am sure that this was the first BYU game they had ever attended, but yet they still both had put on whatever blue they could scrounge up on their closets, and we enjoyed high-fiving over Cody's many acrobatic catches and impressive plays.
I estimate that were about 4K BYU fans there. We filled half of the larger endzone shoulder to shoulder (much of the OSU sections were only sporadically filled), and an edge of the smaller sideline about 10-15 seats wide all the way to the top. Then there were a number of other Cougar fans sporadically spaced in the sea of orange and black. It was probably 25-35% fewer than were at the Ole Miss game.
It seemed that we were losing players left and right--and knees primarily. There were not many replays available, and I know that the injury reports are all out now (and if you are reading this, then I imagine you have read them too, just like I have), but I had to wonder if there was something about the field that was causing so many guys to go down that way.
Helmets... If I had a nickel... I think we lost a helmet on just about every play. That has been going on for a couple of years now ever since 2009 when we "upgraded" to the "improved" helmets now in use (Remember how Dennis Pitta used to lose his helmet on nearly every play?). However, this year it has seemed worse than usual. And, watching a game live showed even more than is caught on camera. I have been saying this all season, that someone is going to get hurt this way... and sure enough it finally happened. It wasn't serious, but the next one might be. Other teams' helmets don't come off at even a fraction of the rate that ours do, so either A) the helmets are not well designed to stay on and we should switch to a different helmet style, or B) our equipment managers are not sizing/fitting them properly and need to reassess their practices... This should be done now. Given the history and awareness of the problem, there are most likely legal/liability reasons to do so, if the safety of the players is not enough.

Pulling Off the BYU Equivalent of Notre Dame's Scheduling

2011-09-10T03:54:00.000-07:00

BYU to the Big12?
I have tried to avoid chiming in too much on the Big XII expansion circus thus far, for several reasons: 1) the information available is primarily rumor, 2) the situation is changing constantly, 3) the drivers of change are closer to hurt feelings and daytime drama than to dollars and analysis, and 4) there is little doubt that BYU would be the obvious choice for Big XII expansion if it goes that way, so the question is really whether BYU should accept or not if an offer comes--and again I believe that this decision is going to be based more on the hearts (of the board of trustees) than the mind (and associated byucougs.com analysis).

My preference actually would be for BYU to remain independent and be wildly successful as such (so much could go wrong… but so much could go right—the age-old risk/reward tradeoff). I love that nearly all of their games are on ESPN. I love BYUtv as a Cougar sports channel. I love that they can play in stadiums all over the country and the nation-wide fan access that this provides. (I realize that this isn't a high priority for the average Utah County Cougarboarder, but living in Northern CA, it would be great to see the Cougs play out here, and when traveling to a game, it is about the same cost to go to Austin as it is to go to Provo).

Clearly there are dozens of other factors that will play into this--TV rights, Sunday play, how to handle the WCC relationships, increased revenue, BCS access, conference championships, etc. But for me, its hard to get any more excited about playing Iowa State, Kansas, Missouri, and Kansas State (that is likely the division we'd be in) than it was to play New Mexico and Colorado State and Wyoming every year. In fact, give me San Diego State, UNLV, TCU, and Air Force over that alternative.

With all that in mind, however, there is one thing that could break independence for me: inability to schedule beyond Idaho State, Idaho, Weber State, New Mexico State and San Jose State during the latter part of the season. I think those are great games for this year and next, while we get this going, but if it were to go beyond that, the old MWC schedule would have been better, and a Big XII schedule would definitely be an upgrade.

So to consider this question, I took a look at Notre Dame's scheduling philosophy to see how they have managed to do it so successfully, and in particular, schedule games during the latter half of the season, to see if there is anything that BYU could learn from and/or imitate. We’ll break down Notre Dame’s approach, and try to map it to an equivalent one for BYU, and see if it appears reasonable.

Here are a few observations from reviewing Notre Dame's recent schedules (from the most recent 6 seasons and next year, 2006-2012):

Annual Games
• They play 8 teams consistently, nearly every year, on a home and away basis, leaving just four games to “schedule”. These include:
     o 1 religious rival (Boston College)
     o 4 regional rivals (Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue, and Pittsburg*)
     o 2 strategic West Coast schools (Stanford and USC), thus guaranteeing a game on the coast in recruiting rich, donor-dense, NorCal and SoCal in alternating years
     o 1 historical rival and independent (Navy) that is often played at a neutral site (NJ, NY, TX, Ireland)

“Scheduled” Games
• They generally play 2 games that are part of home and away series (one at home and one on road on average) with respected schools from either the ACC or PAC12, also strategically located on the highly populated West Coast or Middle Atlantic
• They play one of the other service academies almost every year (either Army or Air Force)—FWIW… 5 games over the 7 years analyzed
• They generally play 1 (or 2 if not playing Army or Navy) home game in a “one and done” against a team from the MWC, WAC, MAC, CUSA (no Sun Belt), and the Big East (excepting Pitt, who they play every year), with the Big East being the one turned to most often

Timing
• First game of the season is usually one of the “scheduled” games
• Michigan, Michigan State, and Purdue are always played in September in consecutive weeks, though rarely beginning with the first game of the season
• Home game vs. either USC or Stanford is nearly always played around the midpoint in October
• Boston College is always the second half of the season (Oct or Nov)
• USC or Stanford (whichever is on the road that season) is always the last game in November on Thanksgiving weekend
• …Leaving Pittsburgh, Navy, and 3 “scheduled games” to fill 5 slots in Oct/Nov
     o Navy and Pitt are annual partners, thus anticipating games during Oct and Nov
     o Of the “scheduled” games, one is often a service academy which can schedule flexibly during those months
     o Another is generally a “one and done” money game, from a league that would allow late-season scheduling exceptions (MWC, WAC, MAC, CUSA, BE)
     o Only one home/away “scheduled” game against the PAC12 or ACC would need to be scheduled during Oct/Nov (since the other could be done in Sept)

Other Interesting Observations
• No games against the SEC
• No games against Texas schools, although it would seem to be a strategic recruiting location. Only TX game was a neutral game.
• They are playing an international game against Navy in Ireland, which will be the first game of next season (for travel reasons, it is likely that any international game would have to be the first game)

So the summary for Notre Dame is that they have 8 annual games, leaving only 4 to “schedule” and of those, only one that would generally need to be scheduled during the hard-to-schedule months of October or November. That is doable. Quite a system—I sense a bit of envy coming from Tom Holmoe’s office these days.

Applied to BYU
Now for some analysis-influenced speculation…Could BYU successfully replicate that approach? If so, what would/should it look like?

Annual Games
• They would ideally play 6 annual games on a home/away basis
     o 1 arch-rival (Utah)
     o 2 regional schools (Utah State, Boise State)
     o 1 historical and strategic rival (Hawaii)
     o 1 religious peer and independent (Notre Dame)
     o 1 strategic regional annual game (UNLV), allowing for a game at BYU’s home away from home, every other year, perhaps late in the season

“Scheduled” Games
• 1 Service academy (Army, Navy, or Air Force), in home/away or neutral. This should be reasonable given history with Air Force, and the other two also being independent
• 2 games in the strategic states of California (or OR/WA) and Texas (or OK, AR, LA)—should be sure to play at least every other year. So many fans and potential recruits in both of these areas, that the team should try to travel to each of these places at least once per season. Options include CA (SDSU, USC, UCLA, Stanford, Cal, SJSU, Fresno, Oregon, Oregon St, Washington, Washington St, or neutral games in LA or SF) and TX (TCU, Texas, SMU, Texas A&M, Baylor, Rice, Houston, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, OSU, Arkansas, Louisiana Tech, Tulane, LSU, or neutral games in Dallas—BYU likely wouldn’t play in small stadiums like North Texas)
• 1-2 games as the back side of trips to CA and TX, since unless these were neutral or one-off, there would have to be home games alternating years.
• 1 “one and done” home game against an FCS school or lower FBS school such as Idaho
• 1-2 games with other national programs of significance, in locations of interest to BYU fans, football tradition, or the school’s mission.

Timing
• The real key to timing is which schools could BYU get to play them in October and November. Would they be able to get 8? Six would be easy--you could count on Utah State, Hawaii, Notre Dame, a service academy, the “one and done”, and UNLV. So, the Cougars would need to be able to schedule 2 of the others during either Oct or Nov—doesn’t seem to difficult—perhaps Boise and one of the Texas or CA schools.

Conclusion
After looking that over, surprisingly, it doesn’t seem like too much of a stretch—Utah, USU, and Hawaii are already on board. Extend contracts with Boise and Notre Dame. Set something up with UNLV. Get the service academies on board. The one and done will be easy. That leaves 4 games to schedule, several of which are already on the books, and only two of which need to be in Oct or November.

Although I haven’t yet dialed any numbers from the AD’s office, it’s enough for me to retain my hope in Independence.

This Hits a Little Too Close to Home

2011-08-31T07:49:00.000-07:00

What would a football season be without a few Excel spreadsheets?

[Too small to read? Click image above to see larger version]
http://www.bloodrunsblue.com/2011/08/26/define-work-2/

Thanks to Tara for thinking of me when sharing this! 3 days until kickoff...

Comparing BYU's National TV Exposure with the Best

2011-08-03T07:15:00.000-07:00

Although all of this year’s TV broadcasting decisions haven’t been finalized, we know that BYU will be on ESPN at least 10, possibly 11 times (pending the Oregon State outcome). Great exposure from any Cougar fan’s point of view, but how does it stack up against other teams from around the country with conference ESPN contracts? Better? Worse? Yawn? Here is a look at how last season played out on the tube, and where BYU would have fit both in 2010 and 2011.

2010 Nationally Televised Regular Season Games

Team         Conf     Netwk ESPN TOT       Other All
Notre Dame IND    12         0        12            0     12
Alabama      SEC      6         5        11            0     11
Florida St     ACC     7          4         11          0     11
BYU 2011   IND        0         10        10           1      11
Auburn        SEC     4         6         10          0      10
Michiga       B10       5         5         10          0     10
Florida        SEC       4          5         9            0      9
Penn St       B10       2         7          9            0      9
Miami           ACC     1         8         9             0      9
USC             P10       5        3         8            4       12
Texas           B12      5        3        8            3       11
Oklahoma     B12       5        3         8            3      11
Nebraska    B12      7        1        8             0       8
Ohio St       B10       5        3        8             0       8
West Va       BE       2        6         8             0       8
Oregon         P10       4        3         7            2        9
Boise St      WAC      1        6         7             1       8
Va Tech       ACC    2         5        7             0        7
Stanford      P10      4          2         6            3       9
Pittsburgh     BE         2       4          6             1       7
Minnesota    B10       1       5          6             0        6
Georgia        SEC       2        3          5            1         6
Syracuse     BE        0        5         5            0        5
Indiana         B10        0       4          4             0        4
Navy            IND       2       1          3             6        9
TCU            MWC    0       2          2             8       10
BYU 2010   MWC      0      2          2            4        6
Army            IND         2       0           2             4         6
Duke            ACC       1      1          2              1        3
Hawaii        WAC       0       2          2             1        3
Vanderbilt     SEC        0       2           2              0        2
San Jose St WAC       0      2          2              0         2
Baylor           B12         0       1           1              7         8
Utah             MWC       1      0           1             4          5
Wash St      P10         0      0          0              4         4
Wyoming      MWC        0      0           0              3          3

Conclusion
This year’s TV line up would have put BYU tied for fourth most appearances on one of the networks or ESPN last season. Not bad, especially considering the company they were in with their 2010 lineup (Army, Duke, Hawaii) versus 2011 (Auburn, Michigan) and the teams they would have been above last season (Florida, USC, Texas, Ohio St). So yes Cougar fans, this exposure is special, and is something to be excited about.

A few notes on the assumptions and calculations:

• Network appearances include ABC, NBC, CBS; ESPN includes ESPN, ESPN2, ESPNU; Other National Networks include FSN, Versus, CBSC. The Mtn, BTN, ESPN Gameplan, and regional Fox channels were not considered national broadcasts, even though technically they are available across the country.
• Not all teams are included in the analysis (I included 4-5 teams from each conference—the 3-4 best teams and 1-2 bottom dwellers to put things into perspective); however, I believe that all of the teams with the most exposure have been included, so probably the top 15 teams or so, are pretty accurate.
• Regular season only; no bowls or championship games were included.
• I recognize that not all viewing times are created equal (e.g. Boise on a Wed night isn’t the same as Alabama on Sat at 7pm) but haven’t accounted for those variances here.
• TV appearances are often schedule dependent, and whether a team gets on national TV is determined by the home team contract and the quality of the opponent; given this, and the variability in schedules, it is expected that appearances would vary somewhat from year to year.
• Whenever a game was broadcast on ABC and an ESPN channel, I counted it as an ABC game.

A Few Nuggets from the Preseason Rankings

2011-07-30T23:45:00.000-07:00

Preseason rankings have been trickling in for months now, and although the only preseason polls that actually mean anything (justification for that is another debate)— AP and Coaches–still won’t be out for a couple of weeks, by the time they are, we will have plenty of other things to discuss (like fall camp that starts next week). And, it’s unlikely that either of those polls will really add anything to the equation that will meaningfully change what we already know anyway.

So let’s do it anyway… A preseason, pre-AP and pre-coaches poll, panorama of predictions:

* FCS team
**The top 25 countdown had only reached #20 at the time of this writing
Note: Not shown are Lindy’s, About.com, Blue Ribbon Yearbook, and Bleacher Report, since TCU was the only team ranked in each

While none of this really means all that much other than it’s more fun to look at than we want to admit, here are some of the not-much-more meaningful takeaways:

• While landing in only one top 25, BYU is right on the cusp of just about all of them, and will probably show up in the ‘others receiving votes’ section when the season starts.

• The one list that they do crack the top 25, is also the most recently released, adding another data point to what seems to me a slow rise in perception for the Cougs by the national media as the season closes in.

• While only one team on the schedule is consensus Top 25 (TCU), there are two more that should be included in that conversation (Texas, Utah), and three more that are widely considered to be in the top half of teams this season (UCF, OSU, Hawaii). Another, on the road in the opener (Ole Miss) is thought by the experts to be good enough to be dangerous.

• BYU plays four teams from the cellar of college football. In many cases, this will be used to discount the difficulty of the schedule, and numerically it will—although it shouldn’t. After about number 75 or 80, it doesn’t really matter how good or bad the opponent is, either way, we should be good enough to beat them and likely would whether it’s an 85th ranked Colorado State or a 105th ranked Utah State.

• Speaking of which… the USU game is going to be a welcome relief after a brutal first four games.

• Given that our highest ranked opponent (TCU) is on the road on a Friday, it’s nice to have ISU the week before.

• The Rogers Poll is the only one that is computer based (supposedly removing some of the group think and the human bias), so it’s interesting to see it give Texas (45) and Ole Miss (80) their lowest ratings (reputation alone would keep someone from ranking them that low), while giving Utah (18), UCF (42), Hawaii (50), Idaho (82), USU (94), and SJSU (106) their highest rankings. It would also suggest that the ranks of BYU, TCU, and OSU are just about right (not as influenced by perception, either way), and that NMSU (119) is just plain bad.

I’m sure that there are other insights that I missed. Please chime in with any other thoughts.

How BYU Squeezed 10 Games into ESPN’s Full Slate

2011-07-27T00:06:00.000-07:00

In light of last winter’s TV time slot fixed pie analysis, the fact that BYU has been able to gobble up 10 ESPN appearances this season, has been not only unexpected, but almost unbelievable—there weren’t 10 slots available! The actual contract with ESPN is for a minimum of 4 games—at least 3 games on either ESPN/ESPN2/ABC, at least one on ESPNU, and one exclusively on BYUtv. Thus, leaving one game (or possibly two in a 7 home game season like 2011) where ESPN has first option.

As mentioned, only two of this year’s games will not be on ESPN—a road game at Oregon St. (which OSU has TV prerogative over, and will likely end up on FSN), and Idaho St. (which fills the one game exclusive BYUtv contractual obligation.)

So where did the 10 game slots come from? A good question that deserves a closer look… Here is where this season’s games will be televised:

Lineup:
4 ESPN
3 ESPN2
3 ESPNU (1 guaranteed, the other 2 probable—on ESPN networks, but could be picked up by ESPN/2)

Here are the time slots (and contracts) being filled:
Ole Miss—Saturday afternoon (SEC)
Texas—Saturday evening (B12)
Utah—Saturday late (BYU ESPN2)
UCF—Friday (BYU ESPN)
USU—Friday (BYU ESPN)
SJSU—Saturday TBD (BYU ESPNU)
TCU—Friday (BYU ESPN—neutral, but BYU is designated home team)
Idaho—Saturday TBD (BYU ESPNU)
NMS—Saturday TBD (BYU ESPNU)
Hawaii—Saturday, week 14 bonus, late game (WAC)

So what is incredible, is that BYU was able to get 10 games on one of the ESPN channels without taking any of the prime slots (Saturday noon, 3:30p, and 7p EST) on ESPN or ESPN2 all of which are already contractually spoken for.

Breakdown
-2 Saturday prime time games fill other conference obligations (SEC, B12)
-1 Saturday late game is during the bonus week 14 and fills another conference obligation (WAC)
-7 games are BYU “hosted”, of those…
     -1 Saturday late slot ESPN2 (many of these available)
     -3 Friday slots ESPN (many available)
     -3 Saturday ESPNU slots, time still TBD (which may have been negotiated to fill part of the 6 required WAC ESPNU broadcasts, or may start in the late time slot)

So there you have it. Despite no time slots really “available”, the Cougars were able to get 10 games on the Sports Leader, and 7 of those on either ESPN or ESPN2. Nice work, Tom, Dave, and Co.

The 2011 BYU Tight End Dilemma

2011-07-18T18:16:00.000-07:00

By Nate Crain

It’s not easy to replace the NCAA all-time leader in career yards for a tight end. After the 2009 football season when Dennis Pitta graduated and got drafted by the Baltimore Ravens the BYU football coaches learned that lesson first hand. When a team loses a great player, the next step is to identify amongst its personnel who has the talent and capacity to take over the tradition of excellence and in ideal circumstances you already have a player identified who has been groomed for the position in advance.

In BYU’s case, Pitta’s primary backup in both 2008 and 2009, Andrew George, also graduated after the 2009 season. The 3rd string tight end in 2008, Kaneakua Friel, left for his mission following that season. The 3rd string tight end in 2009, Braden Brown, was switched to offensive tackle a position better suited to his talents. This turnover in personnel left the proverbial “cupboard” bare of experienced playmakers at the tight end position.

BYU had recruited five freshmen on its roster to vie for Pitta’s coveted role of star tight end for the 2010 season. It’s unclear whether it was anticipated that all five would be competing simultaneously as freshmen. The missionary program at BYU makes planning several years in advance a logistical nightmare. Four of the tight ends in 2010 who got playing time were returned missionaries, whereas one player graduated from high school and then redshirted. It’s highly probable that all of them preferred starting their eligibility after Pitta and George graduated. Regardless, it’s not generally prudent to have five players in the same eligibility year in the same position group.

The Previous 5-Year Tight End Production

BYU fans are accustomed to over achieving tight ends. The previous 5 seasons (2005-2009) of lightly recruited tight ends produced Jonny Harline and Pitta. Pitta averaged 908 yards and 6.33 touchdowns per season from 2007-09. His predecessor, Harline, averaged 894 yards and 8.5 touchdowns from 2005-06. Even the backup tight ends Daniel Coats and Andrew George were receiving threats and more productive than most teams starting tight ends during those years.

As a side note, if BYU had played its games on a bigger network (i.e. not on “the Mountain”- the Mountain West Conference channel) Harline would likely have been the runaway winner of the 2006 Mackey Award. His 12 TDs and 935 yards were 3 times as many touchdowns and 371 more yards than that year’s award winner. Despite having eye popping stats for a TE, he wasn’t even a finalist for the award. The reason for his omission, in my opinion, was that only Mountain West Conference fans ever saw him play. Those were the dark ages of BYU football where only certain states and cable packages could tune into games.

The Challenges in 2010

The 2010 season result of having nobody groomed to take over for Pitta was that BYU was forced to play a merry-go-round combination of five freshmen tight ends, which proved to be disastrous to the overall production of the tight end position. The tight ends were inconsistent throughout the season and made mistakes in blocking assignments, dropped passes, fumbled, and were generally unproductive as a whole. This level of performance was foreseeable based on the lack of experience of all the tight ends.

Compounding the issue of transitioning from Pitta to tight end “by committee” was BYU’s commitment to play quarterback “by committee” at the start of the 2010 season, which dictated both the quality and quantity of throws that the tight ends received. In games 2, 3, and 4 of the 2010 season, the tight ends had only two catches as a group. This lack of production was a combination of the tight ends being ineffective and the offense not having found an identity at that stage of the season.

Here’s a breakdown of the 2010 season stats for the freshmen tight end committee:

RECEIVING        GP   No. Yds Avg   TD Long   Avg/G
Devin Mahina        12    11   118   10.7   0      22         9.8
Marcus Mathews    8     8    136 17     0       32         17
Mike Muehlmann    13 6     96   16      0     26       7.4
Richard Wilson       12   5      61   12.2    0   25        5.1
Austin Holt            12    4     40   10       0     17        3.3

For comparisons sake, all 5 tight ends combined had 451 yards in 2010 and 0 TDs, whereas Pitta and George had 1,237 yards and 13 TDs combined in 2009 and 1,302 yards and 12 TDs in 2008. What is disconcerting about the 2010 group is the lack of production as red (blue) zone targets.

2011 Outlook

Rather than rehash the ineptitude and mistakes of the 2010 TE group, let’s look ahead to 2011. There is usually a leap in improvement between players’ freshman and sophomore seasons particularly with the lure of playing time that is awarded to the hardest worker.

The outlook for the 2011 season has 5 sophomores competing for playing time. Of the 5 sophomores, only 4 were on last year’s team: Devin Mahina, Marcus Mathews, Richard Wilson, and Austin Holt. Mike Muehlmann, the other freshman tight end, moved to defensive line and was replaced by Kaneakua Friel who returned from an LDS mission prior to spring ball.

Mahina has a 6’6” 236 frame with room to add some weight and is the favorite to become the starter at least this year. Last year, he played in 12 games, starting 5, and had 11 receptions for 118 yards. Mahina has the biggest body of the TEs to both block and throw the ball to. He’ll need to work on his route running and hands to consistently see the field. He runs well for his size, but not as well as Wilson, Mathews, or Friel. However, he appears to have all the tools to be a decent playmaker in BYU’s offense.

Mathews at 6’5” 200 played in 8 games last year with 8 catches for 136 yards. He appears to have some trouble gaining weight, as he didn’t fill out at all on his mission and during the 8 months prior to last season. If he can hold enough weight on his frame, he has the size and receiving ability to be an elite receiving TE. To be a complete TE, however, he will need to work on his blocking and holding onto the football. He had some issues with ball security last year based on the way he held the ball after the catch. If he fails to bulk up, he’ll likely play both TE and be flexed out as a receiver on a limited basis. The official BYU roster has him listed as a WR/TE, which probably means the coaches are concerned about his weight as a TE.

Wilson at 6’2” 233 is the smallest of the TEs, but is probably the most gifted receiver of all the TEs (with Friel being the closest competitor). He was heavily recruited with offers from Miami, LSU, Tennessee, and others out of high school. Despite his immense receiving talent, he hasn’t shown a strong commitment to blocking and must get more physical. Injuries have also slowed his progress down in getting additional playing time. Since he is the smallest target of the tight ends, he will need to create consistent separation to get open to beat out the others. Wilson was in the coach’s “doghouse” for unknown reasons a big portion of last year, but that coach has now moved on. That may equate to more receiving opportunities. He may be used this season as primarily a third down receiving target as he can be quite a mismatch as a receiver.

Holt is 6’4” 245 pounds and the best fundamental blocker of the group and works hard in the weight room. For his blocking ability alone he’ll get playing time. He was highly recruited out of HS with offers from Florida, Oregon and other schools. He played in 12 games a year ago, starting 2, and had 4 catches for 40 yards. The concern with him is speed. Will he be able to get separation on his routes? His talent is very high to become a complete tight end, so he has a good chance to push his way into the two deep for the next three seasons.

Friel is a dark horse candidate at TE, since he wasn’t on the team last year and just got back from his mission in 2011. At 6’5” 235, Friel redshirted 2007 and played in 8 games in 2008 (one start) where he was mentored by George and Pitta before serving a mission. His experience was blocking as he didn’t make a catch in 2008, although he is an excellent athlete with a 35”+ vertical who runs extremely well for his size (4.54 40). He is cross trained at fullback, so he may get some time there too. He is just coming off a mission and an injury in spring ball, so he is little behind the learning curve. At the same time, he may be the best athlete of all the tight ends and already has two years in the program, so he has a chance to be the best combination of blocker-receiver of all the tight ends. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him as the starter by the end of the season.

Redshirt Considerations

Logistically, there are 5 tight ends all sophomores that are competing for playing time. If the group stays intact, the program will have déjà vu after the 2013 season. Thus, at least one tight end will need to redshirt to be the main man in 2014. Wilson and Friel have already burned their redshirt years, so the redshirt will need to be one of the other three. Mathews appears to need the most time in the weight room, whereas both Mahina and Holt have the excellent frames to be very good all-around tight ends. It would be prudent to redshirt two of three and save two experienced tight ends for 2014.

Final Thoughts

Although last year’s tight end group played inconsistently and was overall much less productive than in year’s past, there is reason for optimism. BYU invested heavily into last year’s group with the hope that it would pay dividends starting this year through 2013. Freshmen don’t generally get accelerated learning courses of real playing time, so this group should be able to build off last year’s performance and make strides to make tight end the focal point of BYU’s offense once again. The cream should rise to the top. Going into 2012, I expect that BYU fans will once again be talking about the next great BYU tight end with two more years of eligibility.

QB Race for Freshman All-American

2010-11-18T20:32:00.000-08:00

Now 11 weeks into the season, with Jake Heaps comfortably progressing as the starter for the Cougars, it is worth a look at how he and the team are doing compared to other teams with freshmen quarterbacks. BYU has had a freshman all-american each of the last 7 years (see BYUs Freshmen AA), so it makes sense to see how Heaps stacks up in the race for the honor.

Only 19 freshmen quarterbacks have more than 800 yards passing, all having played meaningful portions of at least five games. Of those, only six have winning records in the games they have played (highlighted). And of those six, only one has passed for more yardage than Heaps.

The numbers below only inlcude passing yardage and win/loss records, and I haven't seen most of these guys play, so this there are clearly other factors to consider as well. However, at a minimum, you would expect a freshman all-american QB to have had a winning record in his games. Here is the list:

Player, School                   G   Yds    Record
Aaron, Murray, Georgia       11   2580   (5-6)
Pete Thomas, CSU           11  2565   (3-8)
Corey Robinson, Troy          9     2553   (5-4)
Kolton, Browning, ULM    10    2141   (4-6)
Matt Shilz, Bowling Green   9     1941   (2-7)
David Pilandy, Houston      6    1733   (2-4)   started last 6
Jake Heaps, BYU                 9     1593   (5-4)
Ryan Williams, Memphis      10    1575   (1-9)
Danny O'Brien, Maryland 7     1571   (5-2)   started last 7
Nathan Scheelhaase, Illinois 10   1482   (5-5)
Robert Boldin, Penn St          7     1350   (4-3)   injured
Keith Wenning, Ball St         10    1349   (3-7)
Taylor Martinez, Nebraska   9    1328   (8-1) 957 yds, 12 TDs rushing
Tanner Price, Wake Forest   8    1125   (1-7)
Jordan Webb, Kansas          6     1114   (2-4) no longer starting
Chas Dodd, Rutgers             6     986    (2-4) started last 6
Tyler Bray, Tennessee          5     951    (2-3) started last 5
Chase Rettig, BC                  5     855    (3-2) started last 5
Terrance Owens, Toledo    5     808    (2-3)   started last 5

With two regular season games remaining for most teams and the bowl season, there is still a lot of ball to be played, but at this point it looks as if the honor will likely go to Taylor Marinez of Nebraska or Danny O'Brien of Maryland. However, a couple of solid performances, and a six game win streak to cap the season, could still put Heaps in the mix for freshman all-american.

A couple of other thoughts in looking at the stats:

Either good teams don't start freshmen QB's or freshmen QB's haven't been able to carry their teams to vicory, but only about 30% of these teams have been able to get a winning record with the rookie QB.
BYU fans can feel slightly better about their early season struggles in light of how others with inexperienced QBs have struggled as well.
I have not pulled out the redshirt freshmen from this group... it would be interesting to see how Heaps compares with just the true freshmen.

Laying Out the Holiday Options

2010-11-17T12:38:00.000-08:00

During the offseason, Craig Thompson and the MWC brass had an opportunity to enhance the conference's bowl possibilities, as nearly all bowl contracts across the country expired last year, and negotiations were the order of the summer across the land. With a number of higher payout bowls in the footprint available, we did a bowl primer and comprehensive review of the options and the best case scenario at the time http://www.byucougs.com/2009/08/and-bowl-frenzy-begins.html. Given the possibilities, the outcome was somewhat disappointing, if not unexpected.

The MWC went from this (2009):
Las Vegas                       MWC #1 vs Pac 10 #4/5 $1.1M Dec 22
Poinsettia (San Diego)      MWC #2 vs Pac 10 #6    $750K Dec 23
Armed Forces (Ft Worth) MWC vs CUSA               $600K Dec 31
Humanitarian (Boise)        MWC vs WAC               $750K Dec 30
New Mexico (Albuq.)        MWC vs WAC                $750K Dec 19

To this (2010):
Las Vegas                         MWC #1 vs Pac 10 #5    $1.1M Dec 22
Poinsettia (San Diego)       MWC #2 vs Navy            $750K Dec 23
Independence (Shreveport) MWC #3 vs ACC #7     $1.1M   Dec 27
Armed Forces (Ft Worth) MWC vs CUSA              $600K Dec 30
New Mexico (Albuq.)      MWC vs WAC                $750K   Dec 18

The replacement of the Humanitarian Bowl with the Independence bowl is definitely an upgrade, but given what was on the table (Holiday, Sun, Insight), overall it feels like a loss. The Vegas bowl dropped from the PAC 10 #4/5 to #5 going forward. The Poinestta Bowl dropped the PAC 10 and has a contract with Navy/WAC going forward. The Independence Bowl is a nice pick up date-wise, payout wise, and opponent-wise, but is in a terrible location for fans to get there (except TCU). Overall, the conference was not able to improve its slate in any meaningful way.

So, Projections...
BCS--TCU (only one game left... vs New Mexico)
Vegas--winner of BYU-Utah if Utah loses to SDSU (Vegas would love a ranked Utah, but wouldn't mind one last dance with BYU)
Poinsettia--San Diego State (dream matchup for city)
Independence--Air Force (base nearby)
Armed Forces--Loser of BYU-Utah if Utah loses to SDSU (already had Air Force last two years)
New Mexico--MWC will not fill slot

Interestingly, this weekend's Utah-SDSU game will not have any meaningful influence on SDSU's bowl destination, as the Aztecs seem essentially locked in at this point to the hometown bowl, and even if Utah loses this weekend, but beats BYU, they would likely be headed to Vegas. And, should Utah win this weekend, but lose to BYU, it is possible the bowl would take one last crack at a 7-5 BYU on a 5 game winning streak and sell out the stadium, over a 9-3 Utah having lost 3 out of its last 4, including to its rival, and risk an empty stadium. If it were down to a 7-5 BYU or an 8-4 Utah, Vegas takes the Cougs.

Quantifying the Missionary Advantage--A 2010 Update

2010-11-05T16:58:00.000-07:00

Last season, we tried to dig into the commonly cited, but never quantified, claim that BYU's players are "significantly" older than their opponents and concluded that on average, Cougar players were 1.11 years older than their counterparts (see analysis here). A difference to be sure, but a far cry from the "your 26 year-olds vs. our 19 year-olds" that is nearly always claimed.

I wanted to do an update on that for this season. Granted we are already 2/3 of the way through this season, but given how it has turned out so far, it might be of particular interest. All assumptions are handled in the same manner as the original analysis (linked above). Thanks to Jordan Christiansen in the BYU Football Medial Relations office for the cooperation on the data collection.

The only mission-related age difference for BYU vs other schools this year is 1.01 years per player on average. Per the previous write-up, this is due to not all players serving missions and the class mix (e.g. more underclassmen than other schools). A few interesting notes:

1.01 is nearly 10% younger overall than last year's team (averaged 1.11)
59 return missionaries on the team (same as last year)--56%
Only 14 seniors on the roster, and only 9 of which start (kicker, 3 DBs, 2 OLs, WR, LB, DE)
41 freshmen on the roster, 9 of which are RMs

Here is the actual analysis for anyone interested:

                                             Fr         So       Jr          Sr       Total
Average Age (US)               18.5      19.5      20.5      21.5
Class Mix (US)                      37.6%  22.1%   21.7% 18.5%
Weighted Ave Age (US)                                                            19.71

BYU Players by Class           41          27          24         14         106
Class Mix (BYU)                 38.7%    25.5%     22.6%   13.2%
BYU Ave Age w/o Mission   18.5      19.5        20.5       21.5   19.60

BYU Former Missionaries      9           24          16          10         59
Percent of BYU Class          22.0%     88.9%   66.7%   71.4% 55.7%
BYU Ave Age w/ Mission     18.9       21.3      21.8       22.9     20.72
Actual Age Difference (yrs)   0.44      1.78       1.33      1.43      1.01

Season Leader's Prediction for UNLV Game

2010-10-28T14:54:00.000-07:00

Many of you probably participate in an online BYU prediction game of one sort or another (cougarboard, cougarfan, etc), and if so, you know how hard it is to win one of those even for one week, let alone lead in the standings. And, especially so in a season such as this one with so many unknowns and so much inconsistency. Yet, impressively, one person has been at the top of the standings on Cougarfan's Football Challenge for seven weeks now--ever since the Air Force Game. I have invited him to provide some guest commentary and a prediction on the game. And, given his current seven week reign, you are not likely to get it from a more credible source. (In full disclosure, he also happens to be my brother, and catches all the games from Terre Haute, Indiana :)

BYU is slowly starting to gain confidence offensively. At this point in the season, it’s no longer a question of whether BYU will get in the end zone, but how often. I think BYU will build on its relative offensive success in the Wyoming game, and will score 30 points or more for the first time this year. Defensively, I think BYU will continue to play well against the run.

UNLV has enough athleticism to score against the Cougars, but they have (like BYU) struggled to be consistent. BYU started very strongly against SDSU (up 14-0) and Wyoming (up 16-0). If UNLV can take a 7-0 lead, or more, BYU will be in a dogfight. But BYU has two weeks to prepare for this one, and I think BYU will be the team that starts strong again. This one won’t be as close as Wyoming was. My prediction: BYU doubles up the Rebels, 34-17.

--Jared Haynie, Seven-week Football Challenge Leader

In an ironic twist, Jared's wife Julie is the only one from the family to have had the top score from any single game prediction...

Phil's Mid-Season All-MWC Nominees

2010-10-25T19:14:00.000-07:00

Phil Steele has his mid-season all-conference list out. Not surprisingly, there are no BYU players on the first team (perhaps that can change by the end of the season) as the rolls are dominated by TCU, Utah, Air Force, and San Diego St. There are, however, five players on the second team and a few more on the third team. Overall, with 8 players listed, BYU represented 9% of the total players (0% of 1st team, 18% of 2nd team, 9% of 3rd team).

Mid-Season MWC 2nd Team
RB, JJ DiLuigi
FB, Brian Kariya
OT, Matt Reynolds
CB, Andrew Rich
LB, Jordan Pendleton

Mid-Season MWC 3rd Team
OG, Jason Speredon
OG, Braden Hansen
PK, Mitch Payne

The rest of the conference is as follows:
TCU   19 (39% of 1st team)
Utah    17 (29% of 1st team)
AFA    12 (11% of 1st team)
SDSU 11 (14% of 1st team)
CSU   8
WYO   5
UNLV 4
UNM    4

The New Look

2010-10-25T18:35:00.000-07:00

I hope everyone likes the new look. With menu bars on both sides, you shouldn't have to scroll down as far to find links and news articles. My personal favorite change? The new background. Can you name the stadium? Were you there?

A Mid-Season Diagnosis

2010-10-22T07:22:00.000-07:00

Washington 1986. Hawaii 1989. Oregon, Hawaii, Texas A&M 1990. Florida State 1991. 2000 pre-Doman. Hawaii 2001.  2002. 2003. 2004. Utah, TCU 2008. TCU 2009.

What is the common thread in all of these? That you were there until the end. You didn't leave the stadium early. You didn't turn off the TV.   You stood by the Cougars until the end. That is what true fans do. They support their team in good and bad. That is a defining characteristic of BYU fans. We believe. We stay until the end. No matter the score. No matter the time. The team doesn't stop competing (I can only think of two exceptions--CSU and Boise in 2003) and we don't stop supporting.

But, that doesn't mean that we don't have opinions, or dissect every move of the players and coaches, or think we might have some insight into what is really going on. I am no different.

Here is my somewhat-stream-of-consciousness take on a few pieces of our current situation:

Jamie Hill--Hill was not a scapegoat. Bronco is not one to be reactionary. The fact that Hill was released means to me that there were significant underlying reasons, and that if anything, Bronco probably waited longer than he should have.

Coaching Matters--What Bronco did to the defense in a few days between Utah State and SDSU, was stunning. Most BYU fans were bemoaning the fact that we had no talent on D. Then the first quarter of the SDSU game happened and it hasn't stopped. The same players, minus a few of the better ones to injury, have performed admirably. One can only imagine that the same transformation could be performed on offense. The talent level is not the problem.

Hot Seat--Robert Anae has to be on the hot seat. I like him. He frustrates me at times--frequently this season--but I hope he succeeds.   I want him to find the solutions and get the ship righted. But, if he cannot do it, Bronco will need to find someone who can.

Leadership Vacancy--Bronco has stated a couple of times that this team is short on leaders... and he is looking for someone to step up. I would suggest that this is a problem that is actually inherent in the approach to this season. Bronco has only named two captains, leaving two other traditional spots unfilled. There were two opportunities to provide a mantle of leadership to a couple of his seniors. Perhaps they were not ready--a mantle allows a player to step up and grow into the role and responsibility. It allows the players around him to respect and follow that leader without thinking that the player is trying to be presumptuous. How was Jake supposed to be a leader early in the season? He wasn't the starter. Bronco had not expressed confidence in him, so how were the other players supposed to feel? BYU of all places is a place where players know how to lead and how to follow. They understand mantles. How many times have these players followed a district leader, zone leader, bishop, EQP, etc that was given a mantle? A "calling" to team captain, might have been, and still could be a good recipe for leadership success. Vic So'oto? Bryan Kariya? Brian Logan? These guys should be captains. Give them the mantle and let them run with it.

Starters--Failing to name a starter at QB and TE, has left these positions in somewhat of a tailspin. QB has been on the mend after an injury mercifully ended the spiral. TE is still out of control. A coach needs to pick a starter and then let him play. Should he lose the job, there are others waiting to step up. If they are all the same, go with the gut. Failing to name a starter cuts reps, leadership ability, confidence, and chemistry.

Reps Impact--Linked closely to the failure to name a starter is the impact that has on repetitions for those players. I promised some numbers in this first analysis since I've been back. Here it is (if not exact, it is at least illustrative). If a typical opposing player gets 100 reps, here is how this shakes out for the BYU QBs, TEs, WRs.

100: Typical player reps (for example)
80: BYU practices are roughly 20% shorter than most opponents practices
72: Assume 10 percent of those reps (early season) were lost to time spent installing two distinct offenses
36: Reps are split between the two QBs, leaving them with 36 each--WR's only get 36 reps with each QB
    7: With 5 TE's splitting time, each only gets 20% of those 36 reps with each QB

What is the result? Our QB, a true freshman, is (was) only getting 36% of the reps of the opponent's QB. Our WR's were only getting 36% of the reps with their QB as opposing WRs were getting with their QB. Compounding that, our TE's--all rookies--are (were) only getting 7.2% as many reps each as players from opposing teams! At that rate the season will be over before any of our TE's get the same number of reps as opposing players get in Fall Camp!!! And these are players that needed to get more reps than opposing players due to inexperience! The WR's and QB's three games into the season were barely where others were at the end of fall camp. This has been course-corrected for Heaps and his WR's, but the TEs are still a mess, and unless someone gets named a starter soon, is unlikely to improve.

Drops--Are you following the chain here? 64% fewer reps for our QBs and WRs than the competition might shed light on some of our drops here. The drops this season have been unprecedented. Doubtless some portion of them must be a systematic failure such as above. Likely there are others too. I would hope to see more accountability for receivers dropping passes--critical first downs, touchdowns, third down conversions, easy dumps, fades, across the middles and everything in between. It was reduced in the TCU game but still remained an issue--hard not to improve considering how glaring this was. I wish I had tracked the actual number of drops in those first few games. I think we would have seen a significant number of drives ended and points missed due directly to dropped passes--enough so that it could have been the difference in the season so far.

The Long Ball--Between the dropped passes (seemingly one or more per series in the first 5 games) and the decision to have Heaps throw it deep on nearly 1 in 3 plays in those first few games, can explain nearly all of the offensive ineptitude. Anyone who ever succeeded at intramural football knows that the long ball is hardly ever completed and yet is so tempting that many do it anyway, to the detriment of their t-shirt dreams. BYU was essentially throwing 2 plays away (a drop and a long ball), leaving us with one real crack at a first down, and ensuring 3 and out repeatedly. It is good to see we have moved away from this, but perhaps we have mistaken failures of the long ball for failures of the passing game and need to reinstate the mid range game.

Running Personnel--Our running game has improved significantly since the UW game. However, there are still far too many instances of Kariya trying to take it around the end on third and short or DiLuigi trying to go up the middle in the same situation. Enough to make you want to pull your hair out. Use the personnel to their strengths.

Coaches Giving Up--In many of the early games, the coaches elected to punt from inside the 40 yard line. They opted to kick field goals when touchdowns were needed if there was any hope of winning.  As an anxious fan, it was exasperating. It felt as if the coaches were giving up--going for the moral victory. When coaches are doing that, what are the players supposed to do? The fake field goal was a turning point. It showed that the coaches had not given up. BYU is going to need much more of that mentality from its coaches if it wants that message to rub off on the players.

So there you have it.

While I Was Away...

2010-10-21T23:20:00.000-07:00

A lot has happened while I was gone... Unga leaves, gets drafted, then injured. All-encompassing independence hype/paranoia/fear/exuberance takes hold. Standoff with the WAC. Press Conference with Jamie, Tom, and Cecil. ESPN. Notre Dame. Texas. Oregon State. WAC leftovers... WCC. And that was just in the summer.

Fall camp. QB Battle. Split time. UW. JJ Fumble at AFA--season turns. The Drops. Can't stop the run. Hot afternoon in Tallahassee. The Drops. Colin K. Fuga Out. The Drops. USU disaster. Hill out. Bronco in. SDSU first quarter. Meaningful win. Max and Austin. 28 min of great D at Amon Carter. 60 min without an O. Georgia Tech. Chambers Out. So here we are...

I imagine that I don't have many of you still with me after the last three plus months... But for those that are--I'm sorry to abandon you. Thanks for sticking it out. I'd love to hear from you. Nearly all of my waking hours (and a plethora that should have been sleeping) have been claimed by the Man since the end of June. But I'm done. For now at least. And once again get to do what I really love to do--discuss BYU football and shed light on the happenings with quality insights and analysis. The kind of stuff you can use to end a debate. Kind of like pointing to the score board. So here we go. Back Online.

Winners and Losers

2010-06-22T14:39:00.000-07:00

With the dust now settling from the first volleys of conference realignment, its time to assess the winners and losers.

Winners (in order)
1. University of Utah--the move to the PAC-10 improves the image of the school athletically and academically by association. The athletic budget stands to gain $9-10M per year more than they currently get in the MWC. Recruiting (especially in CA, OR, and WA) should improve as recruits want to go to a school that A) has a chance for a auto bid and national title, and B) play annually in front of home town friends and family.
2. Nebraska--moving to the Big Ten gives them conference stability, a meaningful financial increase (though not as much as Utah), and more prestige.
3. Boise State--although the financial windfall will not be as great as Utah or Nebraska, Boise will reap an additional $2-3M per year in the MWC over the WAC. It also associates with universities of a higher caliber, which is incredible for a school that was a junior college just a generation or so ago. Admissions and academics also stand to improve as much from this move as the level of competition.
4. Big East--Although there may still be moves to come from the Big Ten, at least for now the Big East is breathing a sigh of relief and shelving the survival plans as it has managed to avoid the doomsday scenarios that had it being cherry picked into oblivion.
5. Big Ten--Thanks to the PAC 10's public coup on the Big Ten's best, Nebraska turned to the open arms of the Big Ten for comfort and security. The Big Ten in return gets an upgrade over the rumored alternative in Missouri, and now sits at a comfortable 12.
6. PAC 10--Although some insist that Larry Scott and the PAC 10 have some egg on the very public failure to lure Texas, et al., I believe that the conference knew it wanted at least Utah and Colorado and decided to make a run at something better, with the former as a comfortable backstop in case the plan didn't work. No harm done and I say kudos to a bold and proactive approach. The conference will now be able to stage a championship game and adjust scheduling somewhat to eliminate a few intra-conference losses that seem to sink any hopes of a second BCS bid year after year. The conference also moves east and finally breaks beyond the scheduling limitations of the Pacific time zone.
7. Colorado--Colorado gets a nod here for finding the home that it wanted. Otherwise, all in, I would say it is about a wash. The PAC 10, financially, will not be much different than the Big 12 and the television visibility will be worse (although Colorado isn't on TV that much anyway); however, the university (both athletically and academically) will improve in prestige and will have more equal representation in a non-Texas dominated conference.
8. The state of Utah--with the state's flagship university now affiliated with the PAC 10, it is a validation of sorts for the community that it is accepted and respected on a national level. The state will also see some budgetary savings due to the significant increases in television funding from the new conference affiliation.

Losers (in order)
1. BYU--Despite what anyone says, Cougar fans and administrators have been holding out hope for a PAC 10 invite for decades. To see it go to your chief rival, and relative new kid on the block, while being left behind is a demoralizing blow. And although yet to be fully understood, there may be detrimental effects on the program as Utah improves its recruiting base, funding, facilities, etc. BYU knew that it would likely not end up in the PAC 10 but was hoping for a seat at the table somewhere when everything settled down. That didn't happen.
2. WAC--The WAC loses Boise State, its only legitimate national player of the last several years. The loss jeopardizes its TV contract with ESPN, its standing as the number 8 conference (just above CUSA), and at least one of its bowl games.
3. Big 12--While the teams that remain managed to right the ship, and there are rumors of more lucrative television deals in the works, the conference took a major hit to is national perception, prestige, and stability. The losses of Colorado and Nebraska will hurt television prospects, and at least with Nebraska, national relevance in football. Dan Beebe (the conference commissioner) also comes out of this looking a bit inept, weak, and reactionary rather than proactive.
4. Fans of the BYU-Utah Rivalry--After more than 100 years of competing for the same conference championship each time these teams took the field, that will come to an end. They will likely continue to play each other annually, probably in every sport, but it will be preseason, non-conference, and less on the line. Thanksgiving weekend won't be quite the same without it.
5. MWC--With a BCS auto bid in sight and the addition of Boise, the MWC was poised to become a major player. The great intermountain void (only states with D1 programs and no BCS bid) on the BCS map (Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, Nevada, New Mexico) seemed destined to be filled by the MWC. With Utah (the most populous of those five states) now removed from that equation, the chances have to be diminished somewhat, even if still alive.
6. Utah State--With BYU and Utah now likely to be scheduling annual out of conference games, it is possible that Utah State may be the odd man out and see it without its annual tilts with its in-state rivals. This would be unfortunate for everyone, and may relieve USU of its only guaranteed sellout of the season.