A Mid-Season Diagnosis

Washington 1986.  Hawaii 1989. Oregon, Hawaii, Texas A&M 1990.  Florida State 1991.  2000 pre-Doman.  Hawaii 2001.  2002.  2003.  2004.  Utah, TCU 2008.  TCU 2009. 

What is the common thread in all of these?  That you were there until the end.  You didn't leave the stadium early.  You didn't turn off the TV.   You stood by the Cougars until the end.  That is what true fans do.  They support their team in good and bad.  That is a defining characteristic of BYU fans.  We believe.  We stay until the end.  No matter the score.  No matter the time.  The team doesn't stop competing (I can only think of two exceptions--CSU and Boise in 2003) and we don't stop supporting.  

But, that doesn't mean that we don't have opinions, or dissect every move of the players and coaches, or think we might have some insight into what is really going on.  I am no different. 

Here is my somewhat-stream-of-consciousness take on a few pieces of our current situation:

Jamie Hill--Hill was not a scapegoat.  Bronco is not one to be reactionary.  The fact that Hill was released means to me that there were significant underlying reasons, and that if anything, Bronco probably waited longer than he should have.

Coaching Matters--What Bronco did to the defense in a few days between Utah State and SDSU, was stunning.  Most BYU fans were bemoaning the fact that we had no talent on D.  Then the first quarter of the SDSU game happened and it hasn't stopped.  The same players, minus a few of the better ones to injury, have performed admirably.  One can only imagine that the same transformation could be performed on offense.  The talent level is not the problem. 

Hot Seat--Robert Anae has to be on the hot seat.  I like him.  He frustrates me at times--frequently this season--but I hope he succeeds.   I want him to find the solutions and get the ship righted.  But, if he cannot do it, Bronco will need to find someone who can. 

Leadership Vacancy--Bronco has stated a couple of times that this team is short on leaders... and he is looking for someone to step up.  I would suggest that this is a problem that is actually inherent in the approach to this season.  Bronco has only named two captains, leaving two other traditional spots unfilled.  There were two opportunities to provide a mantle of leadership to a couple of his seniors.  Perhaps they were not ready--a mantle allows a player to step up and grow into the role and responsibility.  It allows the players around him to respect and follow that leader without thinking that the player is trying to be presumptuous.  How was Jake supposed to be a leader early in the season?  He wasn't the starter.  Bronco had not expressed confidence in him, so how were the other players supposed to feel?  BYU of all places is a place where players know how to lead and how to follow.  They understand mantles.  How many times have these players followed a district leader, zone leader, bishop, EQP, etc that was given a mantle?  A "calling" to team captain, might have been, and still could be a good recipe for leadership success.  Vic So'oto? Bryan Kariya?  Brian Logan?  These guys should be captains.  Give them the mantle and let them run with it.

Starters--Failing to name a starter at QB and TE, has left these positions in somewhat of a tailspin.  QB has been on the mend after an injury mercifully ended the spiral.  TE is still out of control.  A coach needs to pick a starter and then let him play.  Should he lose the job, there are others waiting to step up.  If they are all the same, go with the gut.  Failing to name a starter cuts reps, leadership ability, confidence, and chemistry.

Reps Impact--Linked closely to the failure to name a starter is the impact that has on repetitions for those players.  I promised some numbers in this first analysis since I've been back.  Here it is (if not exact, it is at least illustrative).  If a typical opposing player gets 100 reps, here is how this shakes out for the BYU QBs, TEs, WRs.

100: Typical player reps (for example)
  80: BYU practices are roughly 20% shorter than most opponents practices
  72: Assume 10 percent of those reps (early season) were lost to time spent installing two distinct offenses
  36: Reps are split between the two QBs, leaving them with 36 each--WR's only get 36 reps with each QB
    7: With 5 TE's splitting time, each only gets 20% of those 36  reps with each QB

What is the result? Our QB, a true freshman, is (was) only getting 36% of the reps of the opponent's QB.  Our WR's were only getting 36% of the reps with their QB as opposing WRs were getting with their QB.  Compounding that, our TE's--all rookies--are (were) only getting 7.2% as many reps each as players from opposing teams!  At that rate the season will be over before any of our TE's get the same number of reps as opposing players get in Fall Camp!!!  And these are players that needed to get more reps than opposing players due to inexperience!  The WR's and QB's three games into the season were barely where others were at the end of fall camp.  This has been course-corrected for Heaps and his WR's, but the TEs are still a mess, and unless someone gets named a starter soon, is unlikely to improve.

Drops--Are you following the chain here?  64% fewer reps for our QBs and WRs than the competition might shed light on some of our drops here.  The drops this season have been unprecedented.  Doubtless some portion of them must be a systematic failure such as above.  Likely there are others too.  I would hope to see more accountability for receivers dropping passes--critical first downs, touchdowns, third down conversions, easy dumps, fades, across the middles and everything in between.  It was reduced in the TCU game but still remained an issue--hard not to improve considering how glaring this was.  I wish I had tracked the actual number of drops in those first few games.  I think we would have seen a significant number of drives ended and points missed due directly to dropped passes--enough so that it could have been the difference in the season so far.

The Long Ball--Between the dropped passes (seemingly one or more per series in the first 5 games) and the decision to have Heaps throw it deep on nearly 1 in 3 plays in those first few games, can explain nearly all of the offensive ineptitude.  Anyone who ever succeeded at intramural football knows that the long ball is hardly ever completed and yet is so tempting that many do it anyway, to the detriment of their t-shirt dreams.  BYU was essentially throwing 2 plays away (a drop and a long ball), leaving us with one real crack at a first down, and ensuring 3 and out repeatedly.  It is good to see we have moved away from this, but perhaps we have mistaken failures of the long ball for failures of the passing game and need to reinstate the mid range game.

Running Personnel--Our running game has improved significantly since the UW game.  However, there are still far too many instances of Kariya trying to take it around the end on third and short or DiLuigi trying to go up the middle in the same situation.  Enough to make you want to pull your hair out.  Use the personnel to their strengths. 

Coaches Giving Up--In many of the early games, the coaches elected to punt from inside the 40 yard line.  They opted to kick field goals when touchdowns were needed if there was any hope of winning.  As an anxious fan, it was exasperating.  It felt as if the coaches were giving up--going for the moral victory.  When coaches are doing that, what are the players supposed to do?  The fake field goal was a turning point.  It showed that the coaches had not given up. BYU is going to need much more of that mentality from its coaches if it wants that message to rub off on the players.

So there you have it.

What to Watch for Against Oregon State in the Las Vegas Bowl

With three weeks since the last game, the storylines of this game have been covered multiple times each by the local Oregon, Utah, and Vegas media. The national media have picked up on the highlights. The commentating crew (an A team from ESPN) will likely mention each of these again as well during the course of the game. But here is a brief summary of the storylines:

Game Storyline Recap

• Bronco vs. his alma mater. When BYU last played Oregon State, in 1986, Bronco was a linebacker for OSU as they defeated BYU in Provo 10-7.
• Cousin connection. Havey Unga has two Unga cousins (twins Kevin and Devin) that play for the Beavers—both are linebackers and primarily see the field on special teams.
• LDS connection.  There are 8 LDS players on the Beavers squad according to DL Sioeli Nau.  Four of them are RMs (the two Unga brothers, Nau, and linebacker Walker Vave).
• Shawn Doman, BYU linebacker, is from Oregon and was first recruited by Oregon State and coach Mike Riley.
• The story of two good senior quarterbacks—Max Hall and Sean Canfield
• Mental Preparation. OSU’s will need to be able to get up for the game after missing out on a Rose Bowl bid and PAC-10 championship by 4 points against their rival Oregon in the last game of the season.
• Ranked teams. First time the Vegas Bowl has paired two ranked teams, #14 BYU (14th BCS, 15th AP, 14th USA Today) and #18 Oregon State (18th BCS, 16th AP, 20th USA Today). BYU is the highest ranked team ever to appear in the game.
• The point spread. OSU is a 2.5 point favorite, despite being lower ranked.
• Mountain West vs. the PAC 10. BYU is 2-2 in the Vegas Bowl vs. the Pac 10. They are 5-3 in the last three seasons. The Cougs went 2-1 last season (beating UCLA and Washington, losing to Arizona). They were 2-1 in 2007 (beating UCLA and Arizona, and losing at UCLA). They were 1-1 in 2006 losing to Arizona and beating Oregon). With TCU and Boise paired together in a cowardly move by the BCS, this game will be the highest profile matchup of AQ BCS vs. non-AQ BCS. The eyes of America will be watching.
• Hall’s last game as a Cougar, going out as winningest quarterback in BYU history.  Also looking to put his Utah post game comments behind him.
• Dennis Pitta, a consensus All-American, was snubbed by the Mackey Award—how will he respond?  He needs just two catches to pass Louisville's Ibn Green (1996-99) for most career receptions by a tight end in NCAA history.
• The Rodgers brothers, James (Jr) and Jacquizz (So), at 5 foot 7 and 5 foot 6, this talented brother duo lead in receiving and rushing, respectively, for OSU. One of the storylines has been the influence of their father, who is currently in a prison near Houston Texas.  They have been able to overcome tremendous odds to succeed as they have and should be acknowledged for their triumph both on and off the field. 

What to Watch For on the Field:

• Max at his best. When Max is having fun and relaxed he is at his best and nearly unstoppable. When he feels pressure and weight of expectations, he tends to play tight, force things, and generally play at a lower level. Watch for him to come out playing loose as he got the monkey off his back by beating Utah and solidified his place as a successful Cougar QB. The rest now is bonus.
• Watch for the BYU seniors to have big games. There are several seniors (Hall, Unga, Pitta, Manase Tonga, Andrew George and Jan Jorgensen) on the team with aspirations to make an NFL squad next year. This will be the first time they have appeared on ESPN (a true national audience) since the Tulane game and it is their chance to impress. [Unga is actually a junior, but is likely to declare himself eligible for the draft after the season and forego his senior year.]
• Stop the run and limit the pass. The BYU defense has been decent at stopping the run this season. They will have their hands full with Jacquizz Rodgers—a speedy, shifty, short but powerful back. There is a chance that they are able contain him. But, can they contain the run and limit the pass at the same time? This season, when focusing on the run, they Cougs have tended to give up on the pass completely. BYU will need big games from its ends and blitzing linebackers to keep Canfield on the run (an accurate passer, but slow of foot).
• Will OSU get pressure on Hall? OSU’s defense is not known for its front line, and has been inconsistent with the pass rush. BYU’s offensive line should be able to keep them at bay. If they don’t, it will mean trouble for the Cougs.
• McKay Jacobsen has declared himself 100% for the first time perhaps all season. Watch for him to have a breakout game. The receiving corps has not had a significant impact this season, and the focus of the defense will likely be on the tight ends, leaving McKay open to make a difference.
• BYU’s secondary. James Rodgers, is the leading receiver for OSU and will be several steps faster than any of BYU’s DB’s. If the front seven are unable to force Canfield to throw off balance or hurried, no doubt the Beavers will be gunning for the long ball, just as Utah did. The only difference is that Sean Canfield is much more accurate and seasoned than Jordan Wynn and where Wynn consistently overthrew his open receivers downfield, Canfield will hit them. Bradley, Logan, Rich, and Johnson will need to be up to the challenge.
• Limit turnovers. OSU is known for holding on to the ball. BYU has been spotty, but improved over the course of the season. It will be important for BYU to limit the turnovers. A minus one might be overcomeable, but should they have a minus 2 or more it will be difficult to win.

I am at the airport now on my way to Las Vegas. I’m looking forward to a good game. I think the BYU offense will be successful with both the run and the pass. I believe that Max will play as relaxed as he has in several games executing the passing game flawlessly. This will open the door for Unga to have a good game as well. The BYU defense, however, will have its hands full with both OSU's running and passing game. It might very well come down to number of possessions and turnovers. I predict a high scoring affair with BYU winning in the end. BYU 38 OSU 31.

Leave your thoughts and predictions below…

What We Learned in the Utah State Game

With a solid defensive performance (despite a late scoring drive that muddied the box score), and a now familiar offensive performance (good, but mistake prone), BYU controlled the game and ticked off another win in its second of four “no-win situation” games as the team awaits a chance to make a statement against TCU on Oct 24. Along the way, the team helped answer the following questions:


1. Will Max Hall avoid throwing an interception? Two in a row… on what looked like very similar plays. Max now has 10 picks—no other QB in the country has more (Bo Mitchell of SMU is now tied)—and pushed his streak to 8 games in a row. You might expect that from a 50% accuracy passer, but since Hall is a 65-70% passer, it is somewhat surprising. So rather than just poorly thrown balls, they tend to be poor decisions, often trying to squeeze a ball into an all-too-narrow lane, or miscommunications on routes with his receivers.

2. Will Jan Jorgensen get a sack? Finally. He answered the call with his first sack of the season. The defense turned in three sacks total, a season high, now totaling 9 through 5 games.

3. Can we manage to keep the ball for 30 minutes or longer? It’s about… time. Despite an early fumble and two quick picks to start the second half, and with the gratitude of the defense, the offense held onto the ball for 31:15. In the past two games Florida State and Colorado State both seemed focused on winning the time of possession battle as a core game strategy, and used it to successfully mitigate the defense.

4. Will there be a special teams or defensive touchdown? Not this time.

5. Can the offense score a touchdown in all four quarters? 3 out of 4. Scoreless in the third quarter as the interceptions ended what would have likely been scoring drives.

6. Will we get to see more balls thrown to Spencer Hafoka? That depends. As if on cue after reading this column, Hafoka had the first catch of the game, as he was starting in place of McKay Jacobsen (who pulled a hamstring in warm-ups). He then promptly fumbled it, causing the coaches to replace him with Luke Ashworth who proceeded to have a breakout game with 5 catches for 91 yards.

7. Will Riley Nelson see the game? Three plays. One that seemed a bit out of sorts and ended with an illegal procedure penalty. Another that went for 13 yards and a first down on a play designed for him to sneak up the middle. A third—taking a knee on the last play of the game. Perhaps what Bronco meant when telling the media that Nelson would be inserted despite game situation, was that there would be specifically designed one-off plays such as this.

8. How many passes will be thrown at Brian Logan? None. Logan missed a team walk through and did not start, as he was replaced by Robbie Buckner.

9. Will Riley Stephenson ever have to punt and if so will he be able to stay #1 in the country in net punting yards? Yes and no. 3 punts and a 37 yard average, was not enough to stay at the top, dropping to #6 with a 41.92 average.

10. Will the USU fans in attendance be able to come up with any witty, clever, or jabbing signs, chants, or t-shirts for the home team? I am sure they did. The Mtn. was unable to capture it for the viewing audiences. If you were there and can share your stories, please do!

11. Finally, can Oklahoma beat Miami and solve our transitive property strength of schedule issues? Almost doesn’t count. Miami now owns both Oklahoma and Florida State, doing what the Cougars were unable to do.

What to Watch for Against Utah State

There have been a few close games with Utah State over the years. I remember as a teenager in 1993, coming home from a production of Saturday’s Warrior with my parents and listening to Paul James call the second half of the 58-56 shootout (as the game was not on local TV). Then in 2002 while living and working in Dallas, driving up to Denton with my brother, where there was a high spot in a Waffle House parking lot where we could pick up KSL on the car radio (as there was no Mtn or Slingbox ) and listened to the biggest comeback in Cougar history and Curtis Brown’s coming out party as BYU won 35-34. Despite those two close games, BYU has dominated this series for the last 30 years and it is unlikely that the outcome tonight will be any different. However, there are always a few things to watch for in how they win, that will reveal how much the team has improved over last week. There are also a few things to watch for just to keep it interesting.

• Will Max Hall avoid throwing an interception? With 8 toss-aways Hall has more picks than any other quarterback in the country right now, and has thrown a pick for 7 straight games.

• Will Jan Jorgensen get a sack? He does a good job and is often double teamed, but hopefully he can avoid the Fresno State syndrome (all hype, no results) and get the sack monkey off his back.

• Can we manage to keep the ball for 30 minutes or longer? A lopsided time of possession has demoralized our defense in both of the last two games, and is primarily a function of allowing the other team to get long sustained, chip-away-at-us drives. Utah State has a potent offense but an equally impotent defense. The Cougs need to keep them off the field. Watch to see if the 3-and-out defense from the OU and Tulane games makes an appearance.

• Will there be a special teams or defensive touchdown? The Utah State game has traditionally been a game where the non-offensive players add to their scoring stats.

• Can the offense score a touchdown in all four quarters? After failing to score a TD in the first quarter in any of the first three games, last week the team made up for that by scoring three… and then promptly dozing off during the second quarter.

• Will we get to see more balls thrown to Spencer Hafoka? After an exciting 24 yard touchdown catch and run near the end of the CSU game that included a bit of fancy footwork, fans would like to see more of him.

• Will Riley Nelson see the game? As a much discussed USU transfer, it would be nice to see him get into the game. And, Bronco reaffirmed this week that he would still like to see Nelson get 10-12 quarters of work this season. Since he only has two with 8 games remaining, he is going to have to start inserting him more than in mop-up duty. And while there is mop-up-duty potential this week, Bronco also stated that he would insert him regardless of the game situation (read: doesn’t need to be a blowout).

• How many passes will be thrown at Brian Logan? He is third in the country in passes defended with 9 and fist overall in the nation in passes broken up with 7. A nice JC addition for BYU.

• Will Riley Stephenson ever have to punt and if so will he be able to stay #1 in the country in net punting yards?

• Will the USU fans in attendance be able to come up with any witty, clever, or jabbing signs, chants, or t-shirts for the home team? USU fans have developed a bit of a personality to make up for their shortcomings in other areas (victories) and have become quite adept at it. Remember last year when they chanted overrated as the clock ticked off on a 20 point loss?

• Finally, can Oklahoma beat Miami and solve our transitive property strength of schedule issues?  Miami beat FSU who beat BYU who beat Oklahoma who beat Miami???

I think the offense will find their rhythm, move the ball well and score a lot of points, against a defense that has no answer for them. The Cougar defense will be solid at times, but in the end will give up a lot of yards and more points than they should to the Aggies. Final score BYU 47 USU 27.

Feel free to add your own predictions and things you are watching for in the comments section below.

What We Learned in the Oklahoma Game

I was lucky enough to attend this one (making sure to gather a few extra game programs on the way out of the stadium), and then after some celebration pizza, returned home late Saturday night and proceeded to watch the entire game again on DVR. It was almost as good the second time.

After each game this season, I will post a weekly game recap along the lines of “what we learned in the fill-in-the-blank game”. There are already dozens of media outlets that will cover the game itself, so I will try to provide something that is unique and interesting (understanding that those reading this have likely already scoured the Internet trying to satiate their post-game thirst). Finally, given that this is the first game, and against such a quality opponent, there was a lot to learn.

1. Classy Fans—The Oklahoma fans were classy. In my conversations with them, I found them to be thoughtful, knowledgeable, and gracious. Before, during, and after the game, not a single four letter word was aimed my way… or my mother’s. As we were leaving the stadium, many OU fans reached out to congratulate us on the victory and a game well won. Having attended several Cougar non-conference road games over the last several years and been treated in just about every manner by opposing fans (at Arizona being the worst), this was refreshing and commendable. I can only hope that opposing fans are treated in a similar manner by the Cougar faithful.

2. De Facto BCS Game—This was a de facto BCS game for BYU. Nicest stadium in the world. Prime time ESPN. 75,000 Fans. Top 3 Opponent. Big Payout (only about $1.5M for BYU—compared to $9M for a non-AQ in a BCS game—but it didn’t have to be split with anyone else in the conference, so it is effectively about the same if not better).

3. Max Hall—Despite a few times looking a bit nervous as the stadium’s high definition cameras and big screen captured his eyes at the line, Max played a gutsy game, shedding the monkey from his back and redeeming himself completely from the last season’s forgettable ending.

4. This Isn’t Last Year’s Defense—the defense was the difference in this game and may end up being the biggest story of the year for this team. Across the board they were quicker, more assignment sound, and better able to disguise their formations. Not once did OU’s supposed superior “athleticism” appear to be a factor against the BYU defense. There were a number of defensive standouts:

• Jamie Hill—In his first game with full defensive play calling responsibilities, he came through with flying colors—calling the right plays, mixing up the alignments, and confusing the OU offense.
• New Positions—There may have been 8 starters back on defense from last year’s underperforming bunch, but several of them were in new positions—corners moved to safeties, safeties to linebackers, linebackers to ends, and ends to tackles. All of this added up to increased speed and the right people in the right spots.
• Secondary—Brian Logan and Brandon Bradley were able to effectively lock down the outside, staying step for step with the OU wideouts, while Scott Johnson and Andrew Rich did the same in the middle.
• Jordan Pendleton—Seemed to be all over the field. After bulking up somewhat and converting to outside linebacker from safety in the offseason, he seemed to be in on the action in several key plays and will be a handful for opposing teams all sesason.

 5. Preparation—The team seemed to be well prepared for just about everything from handling the noise in the arena with silent snap counts (several players said that the piped-in noise in the practice facility was louder) to having a go ahead fourth down play ready to roll without hesitation. Kudos to the coaches.

6. Chambers is Improved--With the caveat that he didn’t get a lot of playing time last season, when O’Neil Chambers did play last season he looked somewhat sluggish and hesitant. That is not the case this season as he appears confident and quick. Look for him to become a key part of the offense as the season progresses.

7. Pitta Is Back—After playing injured in the last few games last season, he appears fully healed and back to his clutch form. Future opponents be warned.

8. The Kariya Surprise—Brian Kariya, former walk-on, filled in admirably at running back for the injured two-time thousand-yarder Harvey Unga, and should be able to provide adequate shoulders to retain some of the load upon Unga’s return.

9. Kicking Game Questions—The punting game with freshman Riley Stephenson appears to be in good hands, however issues around place kicking and kickoffs that originally surfaced during fall camp almost prevented the victory. A missed field goal. Short kickoffs. A crucial kickoff going out of bounds. Hopefully Mitch Payne will be able to step it up and perform at a higher level, or this deficiency may end up costing BYU at least one game this year.

10. Upon Further Review—In a game filled with penalties on both sides, the refs seemed surprisingly balanced. However, there were three key penalties that appeared questionable in the single replay provided in the stadium. After watching them again several times at home, here is my take:

• Late Hit Out of Bounds—After seeing it from another angle, this looked reasonable, if not clear-cut. Good call.
• Pass Interference on BYU in End Zone—The replays on TV only reaffirmed my belief that this was a clean play on the ball. Perhaps even a textbook play. However, it would have been difficult for the referees to have seen the angles that TV provided. Poor but understandable call.
• Pass Interference on OU in End Zone—I questioned this one at the time, thinking we caught a break and that George should have made the catch. While I still think George should have caught the ball, it looks like he was pushed in the back just before the ball’s arrival. Good call.

11. Weekend Spin—Despite ESPN’s continuous coverage of Sam Bradford’s status drowning out the story of BYU’s performance, anyone who watched the game knows that this was a game that BYU earned. They were step for step with OU if not ahead. After a missed field goal, a fumbled punt return at the 30 yard line, and a fumble into the end zone, OU was lucky not to be down 17-0 at the end of the first half, WITH Bradford in the game.

So now with game one in the books, the question remains as to how the pollsters will handle this one… The Wall Street Journal put BYU 5th in their poll over the weekend. The AP and Coaches poll will come out on Tuesday. Keeping in mind that polls don’t mean much at this point in the season, I expect them to land between 8 and 11.

Lastly, the team will now once again find itself in the media spotlight and in opponents’ sights—how it handles that pressure will determine the remainder of the season. Hopefully lessons were learned last year that will help the team avoid a similar fate, remaining focused on one game at a time and enjoying the journey.

What else did we learn? Post a comment and share your thoughts...