What to Watch for Against Oregon State in the Las Vegas Bowl

With three weeks since the last game, the storylines of this game have been covered multiple times each by the local Oregon, Utah, and Vegas media. The national media have picked up on the highlights. The commentating crew (an A team from ESPN) will likely mention each of these again as well during the course of the game. But here is a brief summary of the storylines:

Game Storyline Recap

• Bronco vs. his alma mater. When BYU last played Oregon State, in 1986, Bronco was a linebacker for OSU as they defeated BYU in Provo 10-7.
• Cousin connection. Havey Unga has two Unga cousins (twins Kevin and Devin) that play for the Beavers—both are linebackers and primarily see the field on special teams.
• LDS connection.  There are 8 LDS players on the Beavers squad according to DL Sioeli Nau.  Four of them are RMs (the two Unga brothers, Nau, and linebacker Walker Vave).
• Shawn Doman, BYU linebacker, is from Oregon and was first recruited by Oregon State and coach Mike Riley.
• The story of two good senior quarterbacks—Max Hall and Sean Canfield
• Mental Preparation. OSU’s will need to be able to get up for the game after missing out on a Rose Bowl bid and PAC-10 championship by 4 points against their rival Oregon in the last game of the season.
• Ranked teams. First time the Vegas Bowl has paired two ranked teams, #14 BYU (14th BCS, 15th AP, 14th USA Today) and #18 Oregon State (18th BCS, 16th AP, 20th USA Today). BYU is the highest ranked team ever to appear in the game.
• The point spread. OSU is a 2.5 point favorite, despite being lower ranked.
• Mountain West vs. the PAC 10. BYU is 2-2 in the Vegas Bowl vs. the Pac 10. They are 5-3 in the last three seasons. The Cougs went 2-1 last season (beating UCLA and Washington, losing to Arizona). They were 2-1 in 2007 (beating UCLA and Arizona, and losing at UCLA). They were 1-1 in 2006 losing to Arizona and beating Oregon). With TCU and Boise paired together in a cowardly move by the BCS, this game will be the highest profile matchup of AQ BCS vs. non-AQ BCS. The eyes of America will be watching.
• Hall’s last game as a Cougar, going out as winningest quarterback in BYU history.  Also looking to put his Utah post game comments behind him.
• Dennis Pitta, a consensus All-American, was snubbed by the Mackey Award—how will he respond?  He needs just two catches to pass Louisville's Ibn Green (1996-99) for most career receptions by a tight end in NCAA history.
• The Rodgers brothers, James (Jr) and Jacquizz (So), at 5 foot 7 and 5 foot 6, this talented brother duo lead in receiving and rushing, respectively, for OSU. One of the storylines has been the influence of their father, who is currently in a prison near Houston Texas.  They have been able to overcome tremendous odds to succeed as they have and should be acknowledged for their triumph both on and off the field. 

What to Watch For on the Field:

• Max at his best. When Max is having fun and relaxed he is at his best and nearly unstoppable. When he feels pressure and weight of expectations, he tends to play tight, force things, and generally play at a lower level. Watch for him to come out playing loose as he got the monkey off his back by beating Utah and solidified his place as a successful Cougar QB. The rest now is bonus.
• Watch for the BYU seniors to have big games. There are several seniors (Hall, Unga, Pitta, Manase Tonga, Andrew George and Jan Jorgensen) on the team with aspirations to make an NFL squad next year. This will be the first time they have appeared on ESPN (a true national audience) since the Tulane game and it is their chance to impress. [Unga is actually a junior, but is likely to declare himself eligible for the draft after the season and forego his senior year.]
• Stop the run and limit the pass. The BYU defense has been decent at stopping the run this season. They will have their hands full with Jacquizz Rodgers—a speedy, shifty, short but powerful back. There is a chance that they are able contain him. But, can they contain the run and limit the pass at the same time? This season, when focusing on the run, they Cougs have tended to give up on the pass completely. BYU will need big games from its ends and blitzing linebackers to keep Canfield on the run (an accurate passer, but slow of foot).
• Will OSU get pressure on Hall? OSU’s defense is not known for its front line, and has been inconsistent with the pass rush. BYU’s offensive line should be able to keep them at bay. If they don’t, it will mean trouble for the Cougs.
• McKay Jacobsen has declared himself 100% for the first time perhaps all season. Watch for him to have a breakout game. The receiving corps has not had a significant impact this season, and the focus of the defense will likely be on the tight ends, leaving McKay open to make a difference.
• BYU’s secondary. James Rodgers, is the leading receiver for OSU and will be several steps faster than any of BYU’s DB’s. If the front seven are unable to force Canfield to throw off balance or hurried, no doubt the Beavers will be gunning for the long ball, just as Utah did. The only difference is that Sean Canfield is much more accurate and seasoned than Jordan Wynn and where Wynn consistently overthrew his open receivers downfield, Canfield will hit them. Bradley, Logan, Rich, and Johnson will need to be up to the challenge.
• Limit turnovers. OSU is known for holding on to the ball. BYU has been spotty, but improved over the course of the season. It will be important for BYU to limit the turnovers. A minus one might be overcomeable, but should they have a minus 2 or more it will be difficult to win.

I am at the airport now on my way to Las Vegas. I’m looking forward to a good game. I think the BYU offense will be successful with both the run and the pass. I believe that Max will play as relaxed as he has in several games executing the passing game flawlessly. This will open the door for Unga to have a good game as well. The BYU defense, however, will have its hands full with both OSU's running and passing game. It might very well come down to number of possessions and turnovers. I predict a high scoring affair with BYU winning in the end. BYU 38 OSU 31.

Leave your thoughts and predictions below…

What to Watch for Against TCU

If Gary Patterson thought last year’s game was a media circus, he is likely to expand his horizons a bit this weekend, as the ESPN Game Day event has become the talk of the town in fan circles and Provo has become the town of the talk on the national scene. The nation will be watching. All day. The Cougars may actually be able to undo some of the damage done in the Florida State game by showing up on Saturday and showing what they have shown in the last couple of games. Yes, underneath all of the hype and hoopla, there is an actual game being played, and yes, it should be a good one. It seems almost a distraction right now to focus on elements of the game when there are clever signs to be made, television images to be aware of, and talking heads to analyze. But let’s do it anyway.

• Can Max Hall get rid of the ball in time? Having enough time to throw is relative. If you have a lot of time, you can throw it deep, where it takes some time for plays and patterns to develop. If you don’t have time, you need to throw dump it quickly. Max (and Anae) have been much better at dumping it off this season, introducing a screen pass and throwing more underneath routes.

• Will the BYU defensive front seven be able to contain the TCU run game and still get some pressure on Andy Dalton? Aside from the Florida State game, BYU has been able to contain the run in nearly every game this season. However, last week, despite holding SDSU to only 20 yards rushing, there was almost no pressure on the quarterback and Lindley looked like an all-american. Dalton is a better runner and passer, and if given time, will be able to do more damage.

• Has the BYU defense learned to adapt to the Wildcat and can it contain Jeremy Kerley? Last season Jeremy Kerley ran seemingly untouched every time he lined up behind center. This season he has been dangerous as well on special teams.

• What impact will the return of the injured have? Last week several players were out with injuries, as well as another half dozen or so playing under the influence of influenza. Manase Tonga (knee) should immediately upgrade the run game. Improvement from Scott Johnson (ankle) and Brandon Bradley (flu) should improve the secondary. McKay Jacobsen (hamstring) will be a game time decision. Several special teams players are also back.

• Will BYU win the turnover battle? Whichever team wins the turnover battle on Saturday is likely to win the game. Both teams are so evenly matched that an extra possession or improved field position could be the difference. It was the 5 turnovers against Florida State that was the Cougar’s undoing as much as anything.

• Will BYU’s running game find success? The passing game will be there. Will there be a complimentary running game. If so, the Cougars will be in good shape. If not, this one could easily become a battle to the wire or worse.

• Will BYU have the emotional intensity to match TCU without letting it interfere with their execution? That is something that all of us will be watching. It was obvious last year in Ft. Worth, that the BYU team had no idea what had just hit them. After the first possession, it will be clear again, which team showed up for the emotional battle. But key to that will be maintaining focus and execution at the same time—Bronco said that he has never seen his players as fired up as they were prior to the FSU game, but that lead to missed assignments and lack of focus, as football fans across the country are well aware.

I am putting on my Cosmo head right now and picking the Cougars to win this one. The coaches will have a great game plan for this one and do what is necessary to get the team up for the game. BYU stays focused and avoids big mistakes. The defense contains TCU’s run game and BYU is able to get 100+ yards on the ground opening up the passing game even more. Max gets rid of the ball when under pressure, limits turnovers, and guides the team to its second victory over a top 10 opponent this season. BYU 34 TCU 27.

Feel free to add your thoughts on what to watch for and your predictions below.