Thursday, December 29, 2011

How Bowl Dominoes Must Fall for BYU to Get Ranked

As I watched part of the Holiday Bowl tonight, I found myself cheering for Texas, given that it seemed to have the most impact on BYU, at least as far as perception goes.  You hate to see a team that the Cougars lost to, lose.  On the other hand, the Texas win might garner them some votes (finished 24 in the BCS, but no real votes in the polls).

That got me thinking, what will it take for BYU to get ranked... They need to win, and the bigger the better.  But, which teams ahead of them need to lose?  In other words, who should true Cougar fans be cheering for over the next several days?

First, watch the Cougs win big.  Then, cheer hard for Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Houston, and Clemson.  At least one of them has to win, and two would be safer.  If you still have any cheering power left,  hope that Georgia Tech and Auburn pull it out, and that Northern Illinois and Arkansas St play to a close game.  There you go.

Here's why...

In the final regular season poll, BYU finished #29 in the AP poll, and #26 in the USA Today/Coaches poll.  Its possible that at least one or two teams beneath them will leapfrog them in the final standings, so realistically, at least 2 teams above them need to lose for the coaches poll, and maybe 4-5 for the AP poll.  Here are the games for all teams ranked 20-25 and getting votes (rankings in parenthesis: AP/Coaches):


A few relevant games have already been played:

Hawaii Bowl
(22/21) Southern Miss already beat Nevada 24-17
 
Independence Bowl
(32/28) Missouri already beat North Carolina 41-24


Key Games--In order for BYU to get ranked, at least one of these teams, and probably two will have to win:

Liberty Bowl, Dec 31
(27/24) Cincinnati vs. Vanderbilt 
Vanderbilt.  Vandy is only 6-6, so it might be a stretch to hope they win this one, but it would be big for the Cougs.

Capital One Bowl, Jan 2
(21/20) Nebraska vs (10/9) South Carolina
South Carolina.  A loss to the #9 team may not make much of a dent in voters mind, so hope that Nebraska loses big.

Ticket City Bowl, Jan 2
(24/23) Penn State vs. (20/17) Houston
Houston.  If Houston loses for only the second time this season, they won't fall far enough to make a difference.  This one is perhaps the most likely so far.

Orange Bowl, Jan 4
West Virginia (23/22) vs. (15/14) Clemson
Clemson. West Virginia needs to lose and look bad doing it (see Capital One Bowl), as losing to a top 15 team is nothing to sneeze at.


Influential Games.  These games will be relevant to the outcome.  Although none are currenlty ranked ahead of BYU, a win could put them there, especially when coaches are anxious to get another school from their conference in the final rankings.

Champs Sports Bowl, Dec 29
(25/25) Florida State vs. (26/32) Notre Dame
Draw.  Whichever team wins will be ranked ahead of BYU.  Argument for FSU--perhaps losing a close one to the Irish would still let voters put the 'Noles ahead of the Cougs.  Argument for ND--BYU plays them next year, so a strong finish this year bodes well for next year's ranking.

GoDaddy.com Bowl, Jan 8
(31/27) Northern Illinois vs. (28/30) Arkansas St
Hope for a close game.  Both of these teams have 10 wins, so the winner will have 11.  It will be hard to not rank them.  However a BYU win over Tulsa would likely be a stronger win.  Unlikely that either would leapfrog the Cougs, but a dominating win by one might be enough to launch them ahead.

Sun Bowl, Dec 31
(30/29) Georgia Tech vs. Utah
Georgia Tech.  This one is a given.  Hopefully, since a win over Utah this year won't be seen as a strong win, a 9-4 Yellow Jacket team would be unlikely to get enough of a bump to pass the Cougs.

Chik-fil-A Bowl, Dec 31
(33/32) Virginia vs. Auburn
Auburn.  Despite a BCS rank of 25, Auburn doesn't have a single vote in the polls.  A win would undoubtedly give them some votes, but not enough to get them ranked.  Virginia on the other hand, could get a leap.

Wednesday, December 28, 2011

Assessing BYU’s Bowl Game TV Ratings

With the Armed Forces Bowl coming up on Friday morning, and with an early kickoff set for 9am here, I anticipate that it won’t fare very well in the TV ratings game.   That got me wondering how the other Armed Forces Bowls have done in that time slot and how BYU has done in general with their bowl game TV ratings.  Let’s take a look…

First, the caveat that it is nearly impossible to compare TV ratings unless they were in the same time slot airing on the same day.  Otherwise there are just too many variables that matter:
  • What day of the week was the game played?  (Wed vs Saturday)
  • What day of the year? (on a holiday, during vacation days, before or after Christmas, etc)
  • What time of the day did it air? (late night or early morning vs. primetime)
  • How close was the game? (blowouts tend to lose viewers, overtime brings them in)
  • What buzz did the game have—were the teams ranked?
  • What channel was the game played on?
  • What else was airing at the same time on other stations? (e.g. Game 7 of the World Series being played during the most recent BYU-TCU game)
But yet, the temptation is too great, so I am going to do it anyway, though it is difficult to make any concrete conclusions.  Here are the ratings from the last 7 bowl games BYU has participated in:

New Mexico Bowl



Year
Date
Day
Time
Teams
Rec
Rec
Score
Rating
Att
2011
17-Dec
7
2:00 PM
Temple-Wyoming
8-4
8-4
37-15
1.8
25,762
2010
18-Dec
7
2:00 PM
BYU-UTEP
6-6
6-6
52-24
2.11
32,424
2009
19-Dec
7
4:30 PM
Fresno St-Wyoming
8-4
6-6
28-35 OT
2.78
24,898
2008
20-Dec
7
2:30 PM
Colorado St-Fresno St
6-6
7-5
40-35
2.6
24,735
2007
22-Dec
7
4:30 PM
New Mexico-Nevada
8-4
6-6
23-0
1.96
30,233
2006
23-Dec
7
4:30 PM
New Mexico-SJSU
6-6
8-4
12-20
1.81
34,111







AVE
2.18
28,694













Last year’s Cougar game, despite the worst incoming records in the game’s short history, and the blowout nature of the score (at one point it was 31-3), garnered just under the historical average TV rating.  The only other notables are that the highest rated game was an overtime game, with a last possession game getting second highest.  BYU also had the second highest attendance, only after the inaugural game with the home team.

Las Vegas Bowl








Year
Date
Day
Time
Teams
Rec
Rec
Score
Rating
Att

2011
22-Dec
5
8:00 PM
(8) Boise St-Arizona St
11-1
6-6
56-24
2.4
35,720

2010
22-Dec
4
8:00 PM
(10) Boise St-(20) Utah
11-1
10-2
26-3
3.78
41,923

2009
22-Dec
3
8:00 PM
(16)Oregon St-(15)BYU
8-4
10-2
20-44
2.58
40,018

2008
20-Dec
7
8:00 PM
Arizona-(17) BYU
7-5
10-2
31-21
2.5
40,047

2007
7
8:00 PM
(19) BYU-UCLA
10-2
6-6
17-16
2.48
40,712

2006
21-Dec
5
8:00 PM
(19) BYU-Oregon
10-2
7-5
38-8
1.97
44,615

2005
22-Dec
5
8:00 PM
California-BYU
7-4
6-5
35-28
2.4
40,053

2004
23-Dec
5
9:30 PM
Wyoming-UCLA
6-5
6-5
24-21
1.9
29,062

2003
24-Dec
4
7:30 PM
Oregon St-New Mexico
7-5
8-4
55-14
1.76
25,437

2002
25-Dec
4
4:30 PM
UCLA-New Mexico
7-5
7-6
27-13
2.9
30,324








AVE
2.47
36,791




















The Vegas Bowl also has BYU right at the ratings average for 4 of the 5 games played (though given that BYU is in 5 of the 10 games listed here, you could argue that BYU sets the average), the exception being the 2006 blowout (when it was 38-0 at one point).  BYU’s highest rated game, in 2008, was also not close, but perhaps maintained its rating due to the fact that both teams were ranked.  The highest rated games were last year’s game (21-3 combined record, both ranked), and a Christmas Day game in 2002.  BYU also has 5 of the top 6 attended games.

Armed Forces Bowl (Ft. Worth Bowl)




Year
Date
Day
Time
Teams
Rec
Rec
Score
Rating
Att

2011
30-Dec
6
12:00 PM
BYU-Tulsa
9-3
8-4




2010
30-Dec
5
12:00 PM
Army-SMU
6-6
7-6
16-14
1.55
36,742

2009
31-Dec
5
12:00 PM
Houston-Air Force
10-3
7-5
20-47
1.83
41,414

2008
31-Dec
4
12:00 PM
Houston-Air Force
7-5
8-4
34-28
1.7
41,127

2007
31-Dec
2
12:30 PM
California-Air Force
6-6
9-3
42-36
1.99
40,975

2006
23-Dec
7
8:30 PM
Tulsa-Utah
8-4
7-5
13-25
2.03
32,412

2005
23-Dec
6
8:00 PM
Kansas-Houston
6-5
6-5
42-13
2.28
33,505

2004
23-Dec
5
6:30 PM
Marshall-Cincinnati
6-5
6-5
14-32
1.6
27,902

2003
23-Dec
3
7:30 PM
(18)Boise-(19)TCU
12-1
11-1
34-31
2.81
38,028








AVE
1.97
36,513
















BYU will be playing in the 9th Armed Forces Bowl (originally the Fort Worth Bowl), and anything less than a 1.85 rating would be considered disappointing for ESPN (the average for the last 8 games).  The highest rated game was the inaugural game, where they amazingly staged a matchup of ranked teams with a combined record of 23-2 (records like that generally only exist in BCS title games) which then played a nail-biter.  This game used to be played prior to Christmas in a prime time slot, and actually had better ratings then (perhaps not competing with bigger bowls and higher ranked teams, and the later start time surely didn’t hurt), and hasn’t broken a 2.0 since.  Should this year’s BYU game top 2.0, it would be considered a ratings success.

To put all of this in perspective, here is some context:

1.60 – BYU’s highest TV rating this season (Texas, UCF, USU)
2.34 – BYU’s average bowl game rating since 2005
2.92 – Ave for all non-BCS bowls last year
7.05 – Highest non-BCS bowl last year (Outback Bowl, Florida-Penn St)
7.20 – Ave for all of March Madness (2011)
8.09 – Ave BCS game 2010-11 season (excluding title game)
11.7 – NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship (2011)
15.3 – BCS title game 2010-11 season (Oregon-Auburn)
22.3 – NFL playoffs average (2011)
46.0 – Super Bowl (2011)

Now that we have covered all of that, what can we conclude?  Really, only that BYU can be counted on to fill the seats and consistently bring ratings that meet expectations.  You may not break any viewership records, but you won’t disappoint your advertisers (they know what they are getting), and will be solid in the time slot allotted.