Friday, September 25, 2009

BYU Rebound History after Top 10 Losses

This isn’t the first time that BYU has lost as a top ten ranked team and (despite the fears of the sky-is-falling fans out there) surely, it won’t be the last. In fact, this is the tenth time that this has occurred and there are some interesting insights and lessons to be gleaned (and a bit of hope) by looking back at the previous ten losses and seven rebound games.

Including the two weeks this season as #9 and #7, BYU’s football team has been ranked in the AP top 10 for a total of 58 weeks (see the previous entry entitled BYU No Stranger to Top 10). There were three seasons that they finished ranked in the top 10, meaning they have played a total of 55 games while perched above eleven, and the team has been 45-10 (.818) in those games.

Losses While Ranked in the Top 10
Year  Opponent (score)    Pre    Post    Final    Record
2009  FSU (54-28)               7       19         ?           ?
2008  TCU (32-7)                 9      18        25        (10-3)
2001  Hawaii (72-45)           9      19         25       (12-2)
1990  Hawaii (59-28)           4      13         22       (10-3)
1990  Oregon (32-16)          4       11        n/a         n/a
1985  Ohio State (10-7)       9      16         16       (11-3)
1985  UTEP (23-16)             7      17         n/a         n/a
1985  UCLA (27-24)             8      16         n/a         n/a
1981  UNLV (45-41)             8      17         13       (11-2)
1979  Indiana (38-37)          9      13         13       (11-1)

The Breakdown
• Including this year, 5 of the losses were to current AQ BCS teams (FSU ‘09, Oregon ’90, UCLA ’85, Ohio St. ’85, Indiana ’79)
• Only three of the losses were to conference teams (TCU ’01, Hawaii ’90, UTEP ’85)
• Two were in bowl games (Ohio State—Citrus Bowl, Indiana—Holiday Bowl)

How the FSU Loss Stacks Up
• The 26 point loss to FSU was the third worst, after losing by 31 to Hawaii in 1990 and 27 to Hawaii in 2001. Last year’s 25 point loss to TCU is number four. The 1990 loss to Oregon was by 16 points is number five.
• All five of the top ten losses prior 1990 were by a touchdown or less—Indiana by 1 in 1979, UNLV by 4 in 1981, UCLA by 3 in 1985, UTEP by 7 in 1985, and Ohio St. by 3 in 1985

Rankings Drop
• The 12 spot drop from #7 to #19 is the biggest one of all ten losses
• After losing to Hawaii in 2001 and UTEP in 1985 BYU dropped 10 places each time
• The smallest drop was 4 places after losing by 1 point to Indiana in the bowl game in 1979
• The average drop has been 8.5 spots

A Bit of Hope
• There were two seasons where the team made it back into the top 10 again (1985, 1990)
• There was one season where the team returned to the top ten twice (1985)
• Every season that they cracked the top 10, the team has finished ranked
• The most losses they ever finished with after falling out of the top 10 was 3 (1985, 1990, 2008)
• The only other time they dropped out of the top 10 this early was in 1985 after losing to UCLA in the second game of the season (and made it back to the top 10 two more times that year)
• The next earliest time was in game five against Oregon in 1990 and also made it back into the top 10 that year (back up to #4).

The Rebound Game
• Of the ten losses, two were in bowl games, and one is still TBD, so there have been 7 rebound games and they have gone 5-2 (.714) in those games.

  o 2008 W 42-35 UNLV
  o 2001 L 10-28 Louisville
  o 1990 L 14-65 Texas A&M
  o 1990 W 52-9 Colorado State
  o 1985 W 31-3 Washington
  o 1985 W 59-0 Wyoming
  o 1981 W 27-7 San Diego State

• Of those seven games, there appears to be the most similarities to 1990 post-Oregon-loss game with Colorado State. A big early season win against a top ranked team. A jump in the polls. A bad loss to a high profile team relatively early in the season. And, conveniently, a follow up game against CSU. BYU fans and players hope the outcome is also similar!

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