Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Mountain West Wins Stack Up Well

The Mountain West is a “tweener” conference. It hasn’t yet been accepted as a BCS conference, but it has already leaped from the ledge of the little guys and is currently mid-air over the gulf separating the haves from the have-nots. This flight of faith was undertaken hoping that the landing spot doesn’t move out from under it. The conference set out on this course a few years ago by spurning ESPN’s offer for meager pay and weeknight football games, and then recommitted recently by going alone (without the WAC, for example) in its quest to achieve AQ BCS status. The magic carpet in all of this being on field performance, and so far this season (to the relief of the suits and ties in MWC circles), the collective performance of teams in the MWC has been much more similar to the BCS conferences than the non-BCS conferences. After four weeks this season, here is how the MWC stacks up in non-conference games (stats compiled on Phil Steele’s Tuesday blog at www.philsteele.com/Blogs/DailyBlog.html ):

Total Overall Winning Percentage:
SEC          43-5       89.6%
Big Ten     34-10     77.3%
Big East    30-10     75.0%
Big 12      34-14     70.8%
ACC        33-15     68.8%
Pac 10     19-11      63.3%
MWC     22-14      61.1%

CUSA     20-28      41.7%
WAC       16-23     41.0%
MAC       15-37     28.8%
Sun Belt    10-26     27.8%

In overall games (including games against FCS teams), the conference is 7th. Not really newsworthy except for the fact that the conference appears to have separated itself from the other four non BCS conferences and is clinging to its 7th place spot with hopes that it brings a permanent place at the table.

Winning Percentage vs. FBS Teams Only
SEC          32-5      86.5%
Big Ten     26-10    72.2%
Big East     20-10    66.7%
Big 12       25-14    64.1%
ACC         20-14    58.8%
Pac 10      15-11    57.7%
MWC      16-14     53.3%

CUSA      11-28     28.2%
WAC         9-23     28.1%
Sun Belt      7-25     21.9%
MAC          7-36     16.3%

After removing games against FCS teams, the conference is still in a solid seventh place, and again is much closer to joining the top six than the bottom four. In fact the winning percentage gap between the MWC and the next closest conference widens from 20% to 25% after removing wins against lower division teams.

Winning Percentage vs. BCS Teams Only
SEC         10-4      71.4%
ACC         9-10     47.4%
Big East     7-8       46.7%
Pac 10       7-8       46.7%
MWC       5-9       35.7%
Big Ten      4-9       30.8%
Big 12        3-8       27.3%
CUSA       6-19      24.0%
WAC         2-13     13.3%
Sun Belt     2-20       9.1%
MAC         2-27      6.9%

In games against teams from the best conferences, the MWC actually jumps up to 5th place passing the Big Ten and Big 12, putting it squarely as a peer to all non-SEC BCS conferences. If the conference can keep up this kind of performance consistently, its peers will have no choice but to reluctantly acknowledge the landing.

Conference Teams with Records Below .500

Big 12         1       8.3%
SEC            1       8.3%
PAC 10       1      10.0%
Big East      1       12.5%
ACC            2       16.7%
Big Ten       2        18.2%
MWC          2       22.2%

CUSA        5        41.7%
MAC         7        53.8%
Sun Belt     5        55.6%
WAC         5        55.6%

Finally, when looking at the number of teams in each conference with losing records, the MWC with only two such teams also fits much more closely with the six conferences above it than the four below it.

Monday, September 28, 2009

What We Learned in the Colorado State Game

For a game that BYU won handily and featured a lot of scoring over a previously unbeaten in-conference contender, it was not a particularly interesting, exciting, or encouraging victory. There are a number of contributing factors and in reviewing the team’s progress over the previous week, many of these come to light.

Last week I wrote:
“I think that the team comes out with a little fire and a chip on their shoulder. They will have corrected the tackling issues, and will show up on third down. With the ball in the hands of the offense more, the defense will be more rested, becoming more stingy, and will put up more points than last week. The long plays go in our favor and BYU gets a nice rebound. BYU wins 41-20.”

Here is my assessment of the questions asked before the game:

1. Will they play with fire in the belly? One quarter was enough. The defense came out with intensity and played that way for the entire first quarter, getting turnovers, making hard hits, and putting the offense in good field position. Although that waned somewhat as the game wore on, the defensive intensity of the first quarter set the tone for the game and really was the determining factor in the game. The offense never really got into a rhythm, scoring quickly on short fields and did not have many early sustained drives or time of possession.

2. Will the front seven be able to contain CSU’s QB? No problem. QB Grant Stucker ended the game with -36 yards rushing on a couple of sacks. His running threat was a non-factor. That said, he had eons of time to throw, especially in the second half.

3. Will the defense get stingy on third down? Mostly. After conceding nearly all third downs to FSU last week, the defense held CSU to 7 of 17 third downs this week, a significant improvement.

4. Will the punt return unit finally get a chance? Two thumbs up for the unit. Of note out of five punts, Matt Marshall had a back breaking punt block in the first quarter and McKay Jacobsen had a confidence building clean fair catch. No real preview to the actual return capabilities, but a good performance by the punt return/defense team.

5. Can the defense limit the big plays? Sufficiently. Although the defense gave up 438 total yards, they limited the big plays and forced CSU to do it in small chunks, which sucked up game time, but kept CSU out of the end zone quite a bit more than FSU last week.

6. Which run defense will show up? Closer to Tulane than FSU. CSU was playing catch up for the entire game and primarily looked to the passing game to get them back in it, but still, was limited to 66 yards rushing on 28 carries (2.8 yd/carry average). Nice job by the run defense.

7. How effective will the blitz be? Almost non-existent. There was very little blitzing (apparently a game strategy decision by coaches), and equally little pressure on the quarterback, especially in the second half, so it should not be a surprise that CSU was able to pass for 372 yards. The sacks that BYU did get were often coverage sacks.

8. How big of a factor will missed tackles be? No longer an issue. After missing tackles on seemingly every play against FSU, the defense resumed its sure-handed grip on opposing ball carriers, and stopping them for minimal gain an many key plays.

9. Will the turnover pendulum swing back? On its way. After a -5 in the turnover department last week, it was progress to be even (two each), especially with CSU who was one of the national leaders so far this season in turnover margin. However, Max Hall has got to be somewhat disappointed in his two-interception outing, putting him even this season with 8 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. To put it in perspective, last season Max had 7 touchdowns in the UCLA game alone and only 8 interceptions through 11 games. Although he is effectively moving the ball, he has now thrown a pick in 7 consecutive games (15 total during those games).

10. How much success will Max to McKay have with deep balls? Minimal. After Hall to Collie deep was the story of the game last year against CSU, Hall to Jacobsen (or Chambers), was not much of a story. Chambers had a 37 yard catch to the 5 yard line, Jacobsen had one that was called back, and there were a few that didn’t connect, but otherwise most balls were thrown at fewer than 20 yards.

11. Have the fans recovered and will they show up? Almost. Although selling the game out for the 14th consecutive game, the crowd seemed to be a bit slow to react and not much of a factor. Perhaps that is because the Mtn. seems to muffle the crowd noise for television somewhat, so if you were at the game and have a different perspective, please speak up.

12. What impact will the new turf have on the game? Primarily embarrassment. There did not seem to be much in the way of player slippage, although the field looked like a joint meeting of the local beginner golfer convention and a gopher reunion. Between plays there was a crew out stomping down divots and relocating displaced chunks of sod. Not a good showing for the field crew of the stadium.

All in it was a good enough game, not a great game. The first quarter, which essentially was the difference in the game, went as fans and players would have hoped, but the remaining three quarters were much less decisive, leaving some question in the minds of fans as to the team’s actual progress over the previous week’s game.

Friday, September 25, 2009

What to Watch for Against Colorado State

With less than 24 hours until kickoff, the team finally has a chance to rinse the residue of last weeks’ disappointment from their collective and individual memories. Each week, I provide a list of things to watch for as you assess the team’s progress over the previous games. As always, improvement is the name of the game, and to assess this, you need to look beyond just the yardage totals and final score. And, as expected after last week’s non-show, the defense will be under the microscope this week.


Will they play with fire in the belly? Watch for the team to come out on fire—swarming, sharp, hitting hard, having fun, playing with intensity. There may not be a more motivational situation in college football than to vindicate a bad loss and prove the doubters wrong. If this doesn’t happen, and the team looks tentative or only luke-warm, then underlying questions of the heart may surface… and my dating life tells me that nothing good happens after that.

Will the front seven be able to contain CSU’s QB? Last week, FSU QB Ponder seemed to be able to pick up whatever yards he needed whenever he needed them. CSU’s QB is not as mobile or as accurate, but has now seen how it’s done and no doubt will hope to emulate. The defense will need to adjust and make corrections, or they could be on the field a long time. QB pressure, like was displayed in the first two games is also going to be key.

Will the defense get stingy on third down? Unless they are able to do this, the time of possession could be just as imbalanced as last week (40 min for FSU compared to 20 min for BYU). After allowing 12/15 third down conversions, BYU is near the bottom in the nation. This week they will need to correct that.

Will the punt return unit finally get a chance? That will depend on how the defense does on third downs… but it is about time. Two games without a punt return.

Can the defense limit the big plays? Colorado State is known for taking big chances and utilizing a number of trick plays. They have had relative success with that approach this season (and last season against BYU). BYU’s defense on the other hand has been relatively stingy on per snap yards, having only given up three plays longer than 25 yards in three games. If they can keep it up, it will make a statement about the secondary and the pre-game preparation.

Which run defense will show up? Last week in giving up 313 yards rushing the defensive line made FSU’s offensive line and backs look All-American. Bronco thinks that it was execution errors and is (and hopefully was) correctable. That remains to be seen.

How effective will the blitz be? Part of the success against the run is going to be getting to the QB and linebackers taking the right gaps. This worked for two weeks. Last week it was shredded by FSU. Was this due to failed tackles and missed assignments (better execution needed), or was it a matter of FSU watching and learning and dissecting our system and tendencies (structural adjustments needed)?

How big of a factor will missed tackles be? For that matter, last week several key plays were made after the FSU player slipped the first tackler. Had the first BYU player to arrive held on the game would have been significantly closer, and perhaps ended differently.

Will the turnover pendulum swing back? Speaking of holding on… the offense needs to hold on as well. Can Max avoid a pick? Will Chambers dig out his death grip? Will the defense pick up a few?

How much success will Max to McKay have with deep balls? McKay has become a deep ball specialist this season averaging an incredible 28 yards per catch. Last year against CSU Hall to Collie was the story of the game. Will McKay have similar success?

Have the fans recovered and will they show up? After last weeks’ hype attack and subsequent crash, will the fans be able to rebound? As of Thursday, the game was not yet sold out and the ticket office was advertising available tickets. They will likely be needed in this game to get the team off to a good start in the first quarter, something that has yet to happen, as BYU has only scored 6 points total in the first quarter so far this year.

What impact will the new turf have on the game? Much has been made of the failures of the new turf. It was not obvious during the game, but was commonly raised after. It has only been a week, and some of the issues cannot be corrected except with time, so it will be up to the players to adjust and make it work.

I think that the team comes out with a little fire and a chip on their shoulder. They will have corrected the tackling issues, and will show up on third down. With the ball in the hands of the offense more, the defense will be more rested, becoming more stingy, and will put up more points than last week. The long plays go in our favor and BYU gets a nice rebound. BYU wins 41-20.

BYU Rebound History after Top 10 Losses

This isn’t the first time that BYU has lost as a top ten ranked team and (despite the fears of the sky-is-falling fans out there) surely, it won’t be the last. In fact, this is the tenth time that this has occurred and there are some interesting insights and lessons to be gleaned (and a bit of hope) by looking back at the previous ten losses and seven rebound games.

Including the two weeks this season as #9 and #7, BYU’s football team has been ranked in the AP top 10 for a total of 58 weeks (see the previous entry entitled BYU No Stranger to Top 10). There were three seasons that they finished ranked in the top 10, meaning they have played a total of 55 games while perched above eleven, and the team has been 45-10 (.818) in those games.

Losses While Ranked in the Top 10
Year  Opponent (score)    Pre    Post    Final    Record
2009  FSU (54-28)               7       19         ?           ?
2008  TCU (32-7)                 9      18        25        (10-3)
2001  Hawaii (72-45)           9      19         25       (12-2)
1990  Hawaii (59-28)           4      13         22       (10-3)
1990  Oregon (32-16)          4       11        n/a         n/a
1985  Ohio State (10-7)       9      16         16       (11-3)
1985  UTEP (23-16)             7      17         n/a         n/a
1985  UCLA (27-24)             8      16         n/a         n/a
1981  UNLV (45-41)             8      17         13       (11-2)
1979  Indiana (38-37)          9      13         13       (11-1)

The Breakdown
• Including this year, 5 of the losses were to current AQ BCS teams (FSU ‘09, Oregon ’90, UCLA ’85, Ohio St. ’85, Indiana ’79)
• Only three of the losses were to conference teams (TCU ’01, Hawaii ’90, UTEP ’85)
• Two were in bowl games (Ohio State—Citrus Bowl, Indiana—Holiday Bowl)

How the FSU Loss Stacks Up
• The 26 point loss to FSU was the third worst, after losing by 31 to Hawaii in 1990 and 27 to Hawaii in 2001. Last year’s 25 point loss to TCU is number four. The 1990 loss to Oregon was by 16 points is number five.
• All five of the top ten losses prior 1990 were by a touchdown or less—Indiana by 1 in 1979, UNLV by 4 in 1981, UCLA by 3 in 1985, UTEP by 7 in 1985, and Ohio St. by 3 in 1985

Rankings Drop
• The 12 spot drop from #7 to #19 is the biggest one of all ten losses
• After losing to Hawaii in 2001 and UTEP in 1985 BYU dropped 10 places each time
• The smallest drop was 4 places after losing by 1 point to Indiana in the bowl game in 1979
• The average drop has been 8.5 spots

A Bit of Hope
• There were two seasons where the team made it back into the top 10 again (1985, 1990)
• There was one season where the team returned to the top ten twice (1985)
• Every season that they cracked the top 10, the team has finished ranked
• The most losses they ever finished with after falling out of the top 10 was 3 (1985, 1990, 2008)
• The only other time they dropped out of the top 10 this early was in 1985 after losing to UCLA in the second game of the season (and made it back to the top 10 two more times that year)
• The next earliest time was in game five against Oregon in 1990 and also made it back into the top 10 that year (back up to #4).

The Rebound Game
• Of the ten losses, two were in bowl games, and one is still TBD, so there have been 7 rebound games and they have gone 5-2 (.714) in those games.

  o 2008 W 42-35 UNLV
  o 2001 L 10-28 Louisville
  o 1990 L 14-65 Texas A&M
  o 1990 W 52-9 Colorado State
  o 1985 W 31-3 Washington
  o 1985 W 59-0 Wyoming
  o 1981 W 27-7 San Diego State

• Of those seven games, there appears to be the most similarities to 1990 post-Oregon-loss game with Colorado State. A big early season win against a top ranked team. A jump in the polls. A bad loss to a high profile team relatively early in the season. And, conveniently, a follow up game against CSU. BYU fans and players hope the outcome is also similar!