Wednesday, December 28, 2011

Assessing BYU’s Bowl Game TV Ratings

With the Armed Forces Bowl coming up on Friday morning, and with an early kickoff set for 9am here, I anticipate that it won’t fare very well in the TV ratings game.   That got me wondering how the other Armed Forces Bowls have done in that time slot and how BYU has done in general with their bowl game TV ratings.  Let’s take a look…

First, the caveat that it is nearly impossible to compare TV ratings unless they were in the same time slot airing on the same day.  Otherwise there are just too many variables that matter:
  • What day of the week was the game played?  (Wed vs Saturday)
  • What day of the year? (on a holiday, during vacation days, before or after Christmas, etc)
  • What time of the day did it air? (late night or early morning vs. primetime)
  • How close was the game? (blowouts tend to lose viewers, overtime brings them in)
  • What buzz did the game have—were the teams ranked?
  • What channel was the game played on?
  • What else was airing at the same time on other stations? (e.g. Game 7 of the World Series being played during the most recent BYU-TCU game)
But yet, the temptation is too great, so I am going to do it anyway, though it is difficult to make any concrete conclusions.  Here are the ratings from the last 7 bowl games BYU has participated in:

New Mexico Bowl



Year
Date
Day
Time
Teams
Rec
Rec
Score
Rating
Att
2011
17-Dec
7
2:00 PM
Temple-Wyoming
8-4
8-4
37-15
1.8
25,762
2010
18-Dec
7
2:00 PM
BYU-UTEP
6-6
6-6
52-24
2.11
32,424
2009
19-Dec
7
4:30 PM
Fresno St-Wyoming
8-4
6-6
28-35 OT
2.78
24,898
2008
20-Dec
7
2:30 PM
Colorado St-Fresno St
6-6
7-5
40-35
2.6
24,735
2007
22-Dec
7
4:30 PM
New Mexico-Nevada
8-4
6-6
23-0
1.96
30,233
2006
23-Dec
7
4:30 PM
New Mexico-SJSU
6-6
8-4
12-20
1.81
34,111







AVE
2.18
28,694













Last year’s Cougar game, despite the worst incoming records in the game’s short history, and the blowout nature of the score (at one point it was 31-3), garnered just under the historical average TV rating.  The only other notables are that the highest rated game was an overtime game, with a last possession game getting second highest.  BYU also had the second highest attendance, only after the inaugural game with the home team.

Las Vegas Bowl








Year
Date
Day
Time
Teams
Rec
Rec
Score
Rating
Att

2011
22-Dec
5
8:00 PM
(8) Boise St-Arizona St
11-1
6-6
56-24
2.4
35,720

2010
22-Dec
4
8:00 PM
(10) Boise St-(20) Utah
11-1
10-2
26-3
3.78
41,923

2009
22-Dec
3
8:00 PM
(16)Oregon St-(15)BYU
8-4
10-2
20-44
2.58
40,018

2008
20-Dec
7
8:00 PM
Arizona-(17) BYU
7-5
10-2
31-21
2.5
40,047

2007
7
8:00 PM
(19) BYU-UCLA
10-2
6-6
17-16
2.48
40,712

2006
21-Dec
5
8:00 PM
(19) BYU-Oregon
10-2
7-5
38-8
1.97
44,615

2005
22-Dec
5
8:00 PM
California-BYU
7-4
6-5
35-28
2.4
40,053

2004
23-Dec
5
9:30 PM
Wyoming-UCLA
6-5
6-5
24-21
1.9
29,062

2003
24-Dec
4
7:30 PM
Oregon St-New Mexico
7-5
8-4
55-14
1.76
25,437

2002
25-Dec
4
4:30 PM
UCLA-New Mexico
7-5
7-6
27-13
2.9
30,324








AVE
2.47
36,791




















The Vegas Bowl also has BYU right at the ratings average for 4 of the 5 games played (though given that BYU is in 5 of the 10 games listed here, you could argue that BYU sets the average), the exception being the 2006 blowout (when it was 38-0 at one point).  BYU’s highest rated game, in 2008, was also not close, but perhaps maintained its rating due to the fact that both teams were ranked.  The highest rated games were last year’s game (21-3 combined record, both ranked), and a Christmas Day game in 2002.  BYU also has 5 of the top 6 attended games.

Armed Forces Bowl (Ft. Worth Bowl)




Year
Date
Day
Time
Teams
Rec
Rec
Score
Rating
Att

2011
30-Dec
6
12:00 PM
BYU-Tulsa
9-3
8-4




2010
30-Dec
5
12:00 PM
Army-SMU
6-6
7-6
16-14
1.55
36,742

2009
31-Dec
5
12:00 PM
Houston-Air Force
10-3
7-5
20-47
1.83
41,414

2008
31-Dec
4
12:00 PM
Houston-Air Force
7-5
8-4
34-28
1.7
41,127

2007
31-Dec
2
12:30 PM
California-Air Force
6-6
9-3
42-36
1.99
40,975

2006
23-Dec
7
8:30 PM
Tulsa-Utah
8-4
7-5
13-25
2.03
32,412

2005
23-Dec
6
8:00 PM
Kansas-Houston
6-5
6-5
42-13
2.28
33,505

2004
23-Dec
5
6:30 PM
Marshall-Cincinnati
6-5
6-5
14-32
1.6
27,902

2003
23-Dec
3
7:30 PM
(18)Boise-(19)TCU
12-1
11-1
34-31
2.81
38,028








AVE
1.97
36,513
















BYU will be playing in the 9th Armed Forces Bowl (originally the Fort Worth Bowl), and anything less than a 1.85 rating would be considered disappointing for ESPN (the average for the last 8 games).  The highest rated game was the inaugural game, where they amazingly staged a matchup of ranked teams with a combined record of 23-2 (records like that generally only exist in BCS title games) which then played a nail-biter.  This game used to be played prior to Christmas in a prime time slot, and actually had better ratings then (perhaps not competing with bigger bowls and higher ranked teams, and the later start time surely didn’t hurt), and hasn’t broken a 2.0 since.  Should this year’s BYU game top 2.0, it would be considered a ratings success.

To put all of this in perspective, here is some context:

1.60 – BYU’s highest TV rating this season (Texas, UCF, USU)
2.34 – BYU’s average bowl game rating since 2005
2.92 – Ave for all non-BCS bowls last year
7.05 – Highest non-BCS bowl last year (Outback Bowl, Florida-Penn St)
7.20 – Ave for all of March Madness (2011)
8.09 – Ave BCS game 2010-11 season (excluding title game)
11.7 – NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship (2011)
15.3 – BCS title game 2010-11 season (Oregon-Auburn)
22.3 – NFL playoffs average (2011)
46.0 – Super Bowl (2011)

Now that we have covered all of that, what can we conclude?  Really, only that BYU can be counted on to fill the seats and consistently bring ratings that meet expectations.  You may not break any viewership records, but you won’t disappoint your advertisers (they know what they are getting), and will be solid in the time slot allotted.

1 comment:

  1. Final Armed Forces Bowl results:

    1.43 TV rating
    30,258 attendance

    The lowest rating for this bowl ever (though sources claim it is up 8% over last year--http://www.al.com/sports/index.ssf/2012/01/college_football_average_bowl.html), and second lowest attendance. Overall bowl viewership was down 8% this year, but still disappointing for BYU. The 9am Pacific start time and 3rd game of the season in Dallas, probably didn't help either.

    ReplyDelete