Assessing BYU’s Bowl Game TV Ratings

With the Armed Forces Bowl coming up on Friday morning, and with an early kickoff set for 9am here, I anticipate that it won’t fare very well in the TV ratings game.   That got me wondering how the other Armed Forces Bowls have done in that time slot and how BYU has done in general with their bowl game TV ratings.  Let’s take a look…

First, the caveat that it is nearly impossible to compare TV ratings unless they were in the same time slot airing on the same day.  Otherwise there are just too many variables that matter:

• What day of the week was the game played?  (Wed vs Saturday)
• What day of the year? (on a holiday, during vacation days, before or after Christmas, etc)
• What time of the day did it air? (late night or early morning vs. primetime)
• How close was the game? (blowouts tend to lose viewers, overtime brings them in)
• What buzz did the game have—were the teams ranked?
• What channel was the game played on?
• What else was airing at the same time on other stations? (e.g. Game 7 of the World Series being played during the most recent BYU-TCU game)

But yet, the temptation is too great, so I am going to do it anyway, though it is difficult to make any concrete conclusions.  Here are the ratings from the last 7 bowl games BYU has participated in:

New Mexico Bowl
Year	Date	Day	Time	Teams			Rec	Rec	Score	Rating		Att
2011	17-Dec	7	2:00 PM	Temple-Wyoming			8-4	8-4	37-15	1.8		25,762
2010	18-Dec	7	2:00 PM	BYU-UTEP			6-6	6-6	52-24	2.11		32,424
2009	19-Dec	7	4:30 PM	Fresno St-Wyoming			8-4	6-6	28-35 OT	2.78		24,898
2008	20-Dec	7	2:30 PM	Colorado St-Fresno St			6-6	7-5	40-35	2.6		24,735
2007	22-Dec	7	4:30 PM	New Mexico-Nevada			8-4	6-6	23-0	1.96		30,233
2006	23-Dec	7	4:30 PM	New Mexico-SJSU			6-6	8-4	12-20	1.81		34,111
									AVE	2.18		28,694

Last year’s Cougar game, despite the worst incoming records in the game’s short history, and the blowout nature of the score (at one point it was 31-3), garnered just under the historical average TV rating.  The only other notables are that the highest rated game was an overtime game, with a last possession game getting second highest.  BYU also had the second highest attendance, only after the inaugural game with the home team.

Las Vegas Bowl
Year	Date	Day		Time		Teams		Rec	Rec	Score		Rating		Att
2011	22-Dec	5		8:00 PM		(8) Boise St-Arizona St		11-1	6-6	56-24		2.4		35,720
2010	22-Dec	4		8:00 PM		(10) Boise St-(20) Utah		11-1	10-2	26-3		3.78		41,923
2009	22-Dec	3		8:00 PM		(16)Oregon St-(15)BYU		8-4	10-2	20-44		2.58		40,018
2008	20-Dec	7		8:00 PM		Arizona-(17) BYU		7-5	10-2	31-21		2.5		40,047
2007	22-Dec	7		8:00 PM		(19) BYU-UCLA		10-2	6-6	17-16		2.48		40,712
2006	21-Dec	5		8:00 PM		(19) BYU-Oregon		10-2	7-5	38-8		1.97		44,615
2005	22-Dec	5		8:00 PM		California-BYU		7-4	6-5	35-28		2.4		40,053
2004	23-Dec	5		9:30 PM		Wyoming-UCLA		6-5	6-5	24-21		1.9		29,062
2003	24-Dec	4		7:30 PM		Oregon St-New Mexico		7-5	8-4	55-14		1.76		25,437
2002	25-Dec	4		4:30 PM		UCLA-New Mexico		7-5	7-6	27-13		2.9		30,324
										AVE		2.47		36,791

The Vegas Bowl also has BYU right at the ratings average for 4 of the 5 games played (though given that BYU is in 5 of the 10 games listed here, you could argue that BYU sets the average), the exception being the 2006 blowout (when it was 38-0 at one point).  BYU’s highest rated game, in 2008, was also not close, but perhaps maintained its rating due to the fact that both teams were ranked.  The highest rated games were last year’s game (21-3 combined record, both ranked), and a Christmas Day game in 2002.  BYU also has 5 of the top 6 attended games.

Armed Forces Bowl (Ft. Worth Bowl)
Year	Date	Day	Time	Teams	Rec	Rec	Score	Rating		Att
2011	30-Dec	6	12:00 PM	BYU-Tulsa	9-3	8-4
2010	30-Dec	5	12:00 PM	Army-SMU	6-6	7-6	16-14	1.55		36,742
2009	31-Dec	5	12:00 PM	Houston-Air Force	10-3	7-5	20-47	1.83		41,414
2008	31-Dec	4	12:00 PM	Houston-Air Force	7-5	8-4	34-28	1.7		41,127
2007	31-Dec	2	12:30 PM	California-Air Force	6-6	9-3	42-36	1.99		40,975
2006	23-Dec	7	8:30 PM	Tulsa-Utah	8-4	7-5	13-25	2.03		32,412
2005	23-Dec	6	8:00 PM	Kansas-Houston	6-5	6-5	42-13	2.28		33,505
2004	23-Dec	5	6:30 PM	Marshall-Cincinnati	6-5	6-5	14-32	1.6		27,902
2003	23-Dec	3	7:30 PM	(18)Boise-(19)TCU	12-1	11-1	34-31	2.81		38,028
							AVE	1.97		36,513

BYU will be playing in the 9^th Armed Forces Bowl (originally the Fort Worth Bowl), and anything less than a 1.85 rating would be considered disappointing for ESPN (the average for the last 8 games).  The highest rated game was the inaugural game, where they amazingly staged a matchup of ranked teams with a combined record of 23-2 (records like that generally only exist in BCS title games) which then played a nail-biter.  This game used to be played prior to Christmas in a prime time slot, and actually had better ratings then (perhaps not competing with bigger bowls and higher ranked teams, and the later start time surely didn’t hurt), and hasn’t broken a 2.0 since.  Should this year’s BYU game top 2.0, it would be considered a ratings success.

To put all of this in perspective, here is some context:

1.60 – BYU’s highest TV rating this season (Texas, UCF, USU)

2.34 – BYU’s average bowl game rating since 2005

2.92 – Ave for all non-BCS bowls last year

7.05 – Highest non-BCS bowl last year (Outback Bowl, Florida-Penn St)

7.20 – Ave for all of March Madness (2011)

8.09 – Ave BCS game 2010-11 season (excluding title game)

11.7 – NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship (2011)

15.3 – BCS title game 2010-11 season (Oregon-Auburn)

22.3 – NFL playoffs average (2011)

46.0 – Super Bowl (2011)

Now that we have covered all of that, what can we conclude?  Really, only that BYU can be counted on to fill the seats and consistently bring ratings that meet expectations.  You may not break any viewership records, but you won’t disappoint your advertisers (they know what they are getting), and will be solid in the time slot allotted.