This Hits a Little Too Close to Home

What would a football season be without a few Excel spreadsheets?

[Too small to read? Click image above to see larger version]
http://www.bloodrunsblue.com/2011/08/26/define-work-2/

Thanks to Tara for thinking of me when sharing this!  3 days until kickoff...

Comparing BYU's National TV Exposure with the Best

Although all of this year’s TV broadcasting decisions haven’t been finalized, we know that BYU will be on ESPN at least 10, possibly 11 times (pending the Oregon State outcome). Great exposure from any Cougar fan’s point of view, but how does it stack up against other teams from around the country with conference ESPN contracts? Better? Worse? Yawn? Here is a look at how last season played out on the tube, and where BYU would have fit both in 2010 and 2011.


2010 Nationally Televised Regular Season Games

Team           Conf     Netwk ESPN TOT       Other All
Notre Dame IND       12         0        12            0     12
Alabama      SEC       6          5        11            0     11
Florida St     ACC      7          4         11           0      11
BYU 2011    IND        0         10        10           1      11
Auburn         SEC      4          6         10           0      10
Michiga        B10       5          5         10           0      10
Florida         SEC       4          5          9            0       9
Penn St        B10       2          7          9             0      9
Miami           ACC      1          8         9             0       9
USC             P10       5         3          8             4       12
Texas           B12       5         3          8             3       11
Oklahoma     B12       5         3          8             3       11
Nebraska      B12       7         1         8              0        8
Ohio St         B10       5         3          8             0        8
West Va        BE        2         6          8             0        8
Oregon         P10       4         3          7             2        9
Boise St       WAC      1         6          7             1        8
Va Tech       ACC      2          5         7             0         7
Stanford        P10      4          2          6             3        9
Pittsburgh     BE         2        4           6             1        7
Minnesota     B10       1        5           6             0         6
Georgia        SEC       2        3           5             1         6
Syracuse       BE         0        5           5             0         5
Indiana         B10        0       4           4              0         4
Navy            IND         2       1           3              6         9
TCU             MWC      0       2           2              8        10
BYU 2010    MWC      0       2           2              4         6
Army            IND         2       0           2              4         6
Duke            ACC       1       1           2              1         3
Hawaii          WAC       0       2           2              1         3
Vanderbilt     SEC        0       2           2              0         2
San Jose St   WAC       0       2           2              0         2
Baylor           B12         0       1           1              7          8
Utah             MWC       1       0           1              4          5
Wash St        P10         0       0           0              4          4
Wyoming      MWC        0       0           0              3          3


Conclusion
This year’s TV line up would have put BYU tied for fourth most appearances on one of the networks or ESPN last season. Not bad, especially considering the company they were in with their 2010 lineup (Army, Duke, Hawaii) versus 2011 (Auburn, Michigan) and the teams they would have been above last season (Florida, USC, Texas, Ohio St). So yes Cougar fans, this exposure is special, and is something to be excited about.




A few notes on the assumptions and calculations:

• Network appearances include ABC, NBC, CBS; ESPN includes ESPN, ESPN2, ESPNU; Other National Networks include FSN, Versus, CBSC. The Mtn, BTN, ESPN Gameplan, and regional Fox channels were not considered national broadcasts, even though technically they are available across the country.
• Not all teams are included in the analysis (I included 4-5 teams from each conference—the 3-4 best teams and 1-2 bottom dwellers to put things into perspective); however, I believe that all of the teams with the most exposure have been included, so probably the top 15 teams or so, are pretty accurate.
• Regular season only; no bowls or championship games were included.
• I recognize that not all viewing times are created equal (e.g. Boise on a Wed night isn’t the same as Alabama on Sat at 7pm) but haven’t accounted for those variances here.
• TV appearances are often schedule dependent, and whether a team gets on national TV is determined by the home team contract and the quality of the opponent; given this, and the variability in schedules, it is expected that appearances would vary somewhat from year to year.
• Whenever a game was broadcast on ABC and an ESPN channel, I counted it as an ABC game.

A Few Nuggets from the Preseason Rankings

Preseason rankings have been trickling in for months now, and although the only preseason polls that actually mean anything (justification for that is another debate)— AP and Coaches–still won’t be out for a couple of weeks, by the time they are, we will have plenty of other things to discuss (like fall camp that starts next week). And, it’s unlikely that either of those polls will really add anything to the equation that will meaningfully change what we already know anyway.

So let’s do it anyway… A preseason, pre-AP and pre-coaches poll, panorama of predictions:














* FCS team
**The top 25 countdown had only reached #20 at the time of this writing
Note: Not shown are Lindy’s, About.com, Blue Ribbon Yearbook, and Bleacher Report, since TCU was the only team ranked in each


While none of this really means all that much other than it’s more fun to look at than we want to admit, here are some of the not-much-more meaningful takeaways:

• While landing in only one top 25, BYU is right on the cusp of just about all of them, and will probably show up in the ‘others receiving votes’ section when the season starts.

• The one list that they do crack the top 25, is also the most recently released, adding another data point to what seems to me a slow rise in perception for the Cougs by the national media as the season closes in.

• While only one team on the schedule is consensus Top 25 (TCU), there are two more that should be included in that conversation (Texas, Utah), and three more that are widely considered to be in the top half of teams this season (UCF, OSU, Hawaii). Another, on the road in the opener (Ole Miss) is thought by the experts to be good enough to be dangerous.

• BYU plays four teams from the cellar of college football. In many cases, this will be used to discount the difficulty of the schedule, and numerically it will—although it shouldn’t. After about number 75 or 80, it doesn’t really matter how good or bad the opponent is, either way, we should be good enough to beat them and likely would whether it’s an 85th ranked Colorado State or a 105th ranked Utah State.

• Speaking of which… the USU game is going to be a welcome relief after a brutal first four games.

• Given that our highest ranked opponent (TCU) is on the road on a Friday, it’s nice to have ISU the week before.

• The Rogers Poll is the only one that is computer based (supposedly removing some of the group think and the human bias), so it’s interesting to see it give Texas (45) and Ole Miss (80) their lowest ratings (reputation alone would keep someone from ranking them that low), while giving Utah (18), UCF (42), Hawaii (50), Idaho (82), USU (94), and SJSU (106) their highest rankings. It would also suggest that the ranks of BYU, TCU, and OSU are just about right (not as influenced by perception, either way), and that NMSU (119) is just plain bad.


I’m sure that there are other insights that I missed. Please chime in with any other thoughts.

How BYU Squeezed 10 Games into ESPN’s Full Slate

In light of last winter’s TV time slot fixed pie analysis, the fact that BYU has been able to gobble up 10 ESPN appearances this season, has been not only unexpected, but almost unbelievable—there weren’t 10 slots available! The actual contract with ESPN is for a minimum of 4 games—at least 3 games on either ESPN/ESPN2/ABC, at least one on ESPNU, and one exclusively on BYUtv. Thus, leaving one game (or possibly two in a 7 home game season like 2011) where ESPN has first option.

As mentioned, only two of this year’s games will not be on ESPN—a road game at Oregon St. (which OSU has TV prerogative over, and will likely end up on FSN), and Idaho St. (which fills the one game exclusive BYUtv contractual obligation.)

So where did the 10 game slots come from? A good question that deserves a closer look… Here is where this season’s games will be televised:

Lineup:
4 ESPN
3 ESPN2
3 ESPNU (1 guaranteed, the other 2 probable—on ESPN networks, but could be picked up by ESPN/2)

Here are the time slots (and contracts) being filled:
Ole Miss—Saturday afternoon (SEC)
Texas—Saturday evening (B12)
Utah—Saturday late (BYU ESPN2)
UCF—Friday (BYU ESPN)
USU—Friday (BYU ESPN)
SJSU—Saturday TBD (BYU ESPNU)
TCU—Friday (BYU ESPN—neutral, but BYU is designated home team)
Idaho—Saturday TBD (BYU ESPNU)
NMS—Saturday TBD (BYU ESPNU)
Hawaii—Saturday, week 14 bonus, late game (WAC)

So what is incredible, is that BYU was able to get 10 games on one of the ESPN channels without taking any of the prime slots (Saturday noon, 3:30p, and 7p EST) on ESPN or ESPN2 all of which are already contractually spoken for.

Breakdown
-2 Saturday prime time games fill other conference obligations (SEC, B12)
-1 Saturday late game is during the bonus week 14 and fills another conference obligation (WAC)
-7 games are BYU “hosted”, of those…
     -1 Saturday late slot ESPN2 (many of these available)
     -3 Friday slots ESPN (many available)
     -3 Saturday ESPNU slots, time still TBD (which may have been negotiated to fill part of the 6 required WAC ESPNU broadcasts, or may start in the late time slot)

So there you have it. Despite no time slots really “available”, the Cougars were able to get 10 games on the Sports Leader, and 7 of those on either ESPN or ESPN2. Nice work, Tom, Dave, and Co.