Recruiting Lag: A Look at Contributions by Class

With Jake Heaps and Ross Apo signing grant-in-aid agreements with BYU earlier this week, the recruiting talk is getting under way once again and will soon be in full swing filling its role as fan board fodder between bowl season and spring ball. It also makes for an interesting time to take a look at the lag that BYU often experiences from when a player signs until he begins to contribute on the field. Every school faces a similar lag, but at BYU, with so many players leaving on missions either before or after their freshman seasons, it is much more pronounced.

For example, the elusive Andrew George, splitter of Utes and defender of (Beehive) Boots, was actually part of the class of 2002. Brett Denney and RJ Willing were both in the class of 2003. And 2004 and 2005? More of the same.

Players Contributing in 2009 by Recruiting Class (class in 2009)
2002
Andrew George (Sr)

2003
Mitch Payne (Jr)
RJ Willing (Sr)
Dan Van Sweden (Sr)
Brett Denney (Sr)

2004
Terrence Brown (So)
Nick Alletto (Jr)
Matt Putnam (So)

2005
Manase Tonga (Sr)
Harvey Unga (Jr)
Spencer Hafoka (So)
Luke Ashworth (Jr)
Jan Jorgensen (Sr)
Terrance Hooks (Sr)
Matt Reynolds (So)
Shawn Doman (Sr)
Vic So’oto (Jr)
Russell Tialavea (Sr)
Stephen Covey (So)

2006
Brandon Bradley (Jr)
Brandon Ogletree (Fr)
Braden Hansen (Fr)
Romney Fuga ( So)
Ian Dulan (Jr, mission)
Mike Muellman (Fr)
Max Hall (Sr)
Ryan Freeman (So)
Riley Stephenson (Fr)
Robbie Buckner (Fr)
James Lark (Fr, mission)
Rhen Brown (Fr)
McKay Jacobsen (So)
Mike Hague (So)

OK, so everyone already knows that some of BYU’s players take two years out. And we covered that already here: http://www.byucougs.com/2009/09/numbers-inside-missionary-advantage.html. But here is the interesting part. In 2003, 2004, and 2005 BYU was recruiting on the heels of consecutive losing seasons. Due to misconduct, the 2004 class was decimated, and the effects are still being felt. In 2005, while technically Bronco’s first class, there was no one steering the ship during critical recruiting periods while the coaching hire saga was playing out, and the program essentially took what they could and/or players willing to be loyal through the transition, which fortunately turned out to be some great players, but was not a proactive targeted, recruiting approach by any means.

So 2006 is effectively Bronco’s first recruiting class. It is just beginning to contribute and the majority of players from that class were freshmen or sophomores this season, and even so, many of them were significant contributors.

What all of this means is that during a period of unprecedented success in BYU football (four consecutive years with 10+ wins—never before done), the team has been playing with a patchwork of recruits, JC transfers, walk-ons, and young contributors. But that era is coming to an end. While fans may not see many in the class of 2009 until 2011 or beyond (for those who choose to serve a mission), the class of 2006 is back and has a year under their belts. The class of 2007 is back and ready to go this spring. Some in the class of 2008 will be back before the fall. So while other schools are bidding farewell to the class of 2006 this winter, the Cougars are finally getting a look at theirs.

And with the signing of Ross and Jake and the many others that will follow them in February, BYU will have its best class ever. And for the first time since 2000, that class will be playing on a team that is almost completely composed of recruits from the current coaching staff.

Why Pitta Was Passed Over

By now you know that Aaron Hernandez of Florida was awarded the Mackey Award for the country's best tight end.  Dennis Pitta has publically said the right things, that he doesn't really care and that it was an honor just to be considered.  But, he likely feels somewhat disappointed, as fans surely do.

Here is a bit from the press release:

"The Nassau County Sports Commission has announced Aaron Hernandez of Florida as the 2009 John Mackey Award recipient. The Southeastern conference junior recorded 59 receptions for 739 yards and four touchdowns while leading Florida to the 2009 Allstate Sugar Bowl. Hernandez becomes the second junior to ever receive the John Mackey Award.

Hernandez was named first team All SEC in 2009. He also tied the single game Florida record for receptions by a tight end with eight in the 2009 SEC Championship game. Hernandez, who is well known for his blocking ability and receiving prowess has totaled 102 receptions, 1,271 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns in his three year career with Florida."

In contrast to that, Pitta had 57 rec, 784 yards, 7 TDs  (in one less game than Hernandez) and 216 catches, 2,856 yards, and 20 TDs in his career (more than double Hernandez).

I like most, expected Pitta to be named the winner.  His nearly unanimous selection as an All-American first teamer confirms this.  However, it is interesting to note a few circumstances that likley contributed to him being overlooked...

NFL Bias--In scouring the John Mackey award website throughout the season in preparation for other articles, I couldn't help but notice that there was a heavy emphasis on NFL performance and success of previous winners.  This makes some sense, as they hope to gain prestige and donations from former winners.  My initial reaction was that this would be a disadvantage to Pitta, and although I thought he would be able to overcome it, in the end I think it hurt him.  Not that I don't think that Pitta can or will succeed in the NFL, he just doesn't look like an NFL first round draft pick to the rest of the country, and more importantly to the voters (see below). 

Florida Love--With Tim Tebow appearing an unlikey repeat Heisman winner, this was an opportunity for voters to recognize the Gator program in another way.

SEC Love--No SEC tight end has received the award previously, so this was a chance for the award to link itself to the bright stage lights of the SEC. 

Voter Slant--The Heisman Trophy is careful to have a representative national vote.  This award has 12 voters--seven of which are slanted toward the SEC or Florida.  The other five are based either in the midwest or northeast.  Not a single tie west of the Mississippi.  Even if they tried to be unbiased, they likely saw few if any BYU football games after Oklahoma.

Bruce Feldman — ESPN (SEC contract)
Marc C. Connolly — ESPN (SEC contract)
Lee Corso — ESPN College GameDay (SEC contract)
Tom Dienhart — Yahoo! Sports/Rivals.com (midwest)
Keith Jackson — Former NFL tight end (3 years with Miami Dolphins)
Jerry Mackey — Committee Chairman (based in NY)
Sean McDonough — ABC Sports (northeast, BCS broadcaster, indirect contract with SEC)
Phil Steele — Phil Steele’s College Football Preview (based in midwest, put Pitta on 3rd team AA)
Tim Stratton — Inaugural John Mackey Award Recipient (played at Purdue)
Spencer Tillman — CBS Sports (SEC contract)
Dick Weiss — NY Daily News (primarily covers men's baksetball, based in NY)
Kellen Winslow — NFL Hall of Fame tight end (University of Miami, Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

I don't know how these awards are regulated or certified, but it seems that if college football wants to recognize them as legit, or at least as what they claim to be (for the best players at respective positions in the country), then the selection committe or voting members should reflect a more national perspective.

Max Hall's Opinion of Utah

It has been a busy two weeks for BYU sports since the Utah game and there is a lot to comment on.  By now you know the news, but I'll be adding a few thoughts on each in the next few posts...

Max Hall
This was all the talk for far too long, and I avoided it on purpose.  Now that it has primarily blown over I thought I would share a few additional thoughts on the matter from good friends and solid Cougar fans:

"Great game. Win or lose these are our guys. Max loves to talk and has taken a ton of grief over the past season or two as he has piled up win after win. The people on the fan boards saying how embarrassed they are for BYU, the Church and themselves are completely ridiculous and have never competed in any sport. One guy was even comparing Max to the worst thug in the SEC. He apparently has never seen an SEC game or Miami game for that matter either.

I hate Utah and am totally fine with that and am glad Max does too. I look forward to the game and wished they walked away crying afterward every time. I have friends that are Utes and they make a point of telling me they love going to the Marriott Center or LES and being loud, obnoxious and using profanity and religious slurs that they normally wouldn't. It is part of the rivalry."       -- B

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"Great game - fun one to be at.   I heard the comments "live" tonight on the radio driving home from the game. Here are my thoughts...

My reactions are mixed. I hate the Utes. There, I said it too. If anyone could see the difference between how the Utes were treated in LES tonight vs. how I and hundreds of other BYU fans were treated in RES last year (I too had beer thrown in my direction in the restroom and was punched several times in the arm, and had anti-Mormon slurs thrown my way all night) he/she would understand. My main regret is that Max won't be here another year to back up his comments on the field one more time in RES. I also wished he would have not made such broad generalizations against the whole university and program. Obviously we all know a number of very classy Ute fans that do not fit the stereotype.

That said, it was a passionate quarterback unloading after an emotional win against a rival who had given him A LOT of crap since last year's loss (e.g., the beer thrown on his family, the blow-up doll labeled as his mom, etc.). I just hate that it will detract from a great victory overall."      --G
 
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"Loved Max's comments. I was laughing when I listened to the postgame. All those pathetic whiny Utes always complain and taunt that the Coug's never speak their mind, but as soon as Max does they can't handle it. Typical. Props to Max. He had a bad game but pulled it out in the end, is the winningest BYU QB and was 2-1 vs utah. Win the bowl game and he's unquestionably up there with the other cougar greats, and probably is already since the oldtimers lost lots of bowl games.

And consider this: a friend of mine got a little beer spilled on him by Philly fans after their World Series win last year and was so ticked off that he rooted for the Yankees this year. My goodness if such an experience can compel you to root for the Yankees then think how ticked off Max should justifiably be."   --S
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I would have to agree with the general senitment shared by these guys.  Should Max have said it?  No.  Did he really mean all of it?  No.  Will he regret it for a very long time?  Yes.

The timing of it was awful as it gave Utah fans and the media something to refocus on and took away something from his own team by overshadowing some great performances and the on the field victory.  The scope of his comments went too far, and although there are definitely many fans in RES that qualify as classless (I myself have been on the receiving end of the worst of what Max referred to), the majority are not (but why those that I do respect, do nothing to reduce unruliness of those that I don't, I can't say.)  Also, the University itself also has nothing to do with this and should have been left out of it, even if select coaches or administrators or professors may have been implicated in Max's mind (he didn't specify). 

Should Max hate Utah and its team?  That is his perogative.  It seems that the Utah players and coaches even (TDS?  Y's in the bottom of the urinals?) have or have hated BYU in the past.  That is fine with me.  So while, I may expect more of a team leader like Max to think before he speaks and not necessarily say everything on his mind, I also don't think that its my place (or the media's) to tell him what to think or feel.

What We Learned in the Utah Game

With now almost a week to move past the post-game storm, there is a bit more bandwidth to take a closer look at the game itself and how the team played along the dimensions that we were watching. I have left the pre-game assessment from last week in italics and responded below it…

• Passion. The Cougars had it last week against Air Force for seemingly the first time. The Utes seem to have it in all the big games. The team that has more of it will likely be ahead at halftime.

The Cougars were ahead at half time and then quickly fell behind as they appeared complacent and intent on running out the clock with a 20-6 lead going into the fourth quarter. A “prevent” offense is a sure intensity and passion killer, and on cue, the team lost its passion and its lead at the same time.

• Turnovers. This game has been decided by 7 points or less for of the last 11 games. Essentially decided on the last play of the game in 2005, 2006, and 2007. Every possession matters. The team that has more turnovers, will likely be playing catch up in the final minutes.

One turnover was perhaps the difference in this game. And the team that committed it, was indeed playing catch up at the end. And once again the game was decided on the last play.

• Touchdowns or field goals. It seems that in games with Utah where BYU has been favored, the Cougars have dominated the stat box, but only come away with field goals at the end of several long drives, leaving it open for the Utes to make one fourth quarter drive to take the lead. They will need touchdowns in order to maintain control of this at the end.

The tables were finally turned, as it was Utah that had 4 FGs and only 1 TD in regulation, while the Cougs had 2 of each. Ironically, in overtime, this question, FG or TD, would actually determine the winner of the game, and it was the Cougs that once again were able to pull out a touchdown when it was needed. Big props need to be given to the defense for holding the Utes to field goals on so often on short fields.

 • Relax, Max. When Max is relaxed and having fun, he plays well. Sometimes, when he feels the pressure and forced to come from behind, he forces things and drives tend to end quickly in three and outs or sooner with a turnover.

Max did not look relaxed at all (which is perhaps what we saw come out after the game), and had one of his worst games of the season. However, the silver lining is that while several drives did end in three-and-outs, at least they didn’t end in interception, as he was conscientiously tucking the ball and being careful not to force it. What fans complained of as over-caution, may have actually kept the ball from being turned over.

• Run the ball. The Cougs have a history of successfully running the ball in the Utah game. It is almost as if Utah has given that up in favor of defending the pass, daring our offensive coordinator to go to the run more than is in the game plan. If the Utes do that again, Anae will need to have the courage to take what they are giving. Unga will be relied upon heavily to keep the ball moving. Success in this area will be key.

Harvey Unga was the unheralded MVP of the game (116 yds, 1 TD, 5.0 yds/carry), as he essentially carried the game on his shoulders while Max was a bit off. Interestingly, Kariya and DiLuigi were not given any carries in this game.

• Pressure Jordan Wynn. With the Cougar defense, it has been all or nothing as far as pressuring the quarterback. When they have opted to apply pressure, in general opposing quarterbacks have shown cracks and the defense has had success (although a glaring exception is the FSU game). In any case, it is in the best interest of the defensive psyche (and fans for that matter), to make proactive mistakes of aggression, rather than passively sit back and give up essentially the same yardage and big plays by being too conservative. It will be essential to keep the freshman on edge.

Pressure from the front seven was inconsistent, but when pressure was applied, he was rattled. When he had time (except on the long throws), he was able to find the open receiver. On the flip side, the defense did a good job of stopping the run and holding Utah to under 100 yards as a team (although Eddie Wide broke some big ones in the fourth quarter and ended with 116 yards).

Both teams are 9-2. Both teams have shown flashes of brilliance and incompetence at various times throughout the season. This game will be decided by the small things—turnovers, penalties, big third and fourth down conversions, a missed tackle here, a dropped pass there. With all of that in mind, I will refrain from predicting the pace of the game, but only the outcome. BYU 30 Utah 26.

This game was a microcosm of the season for both seasons. The cougars going hot and cold. The Utes starting out poorly and then coming on strong at the end. In the end it was the small things—unsportsmanlike penalties, a fourth down conversion, the lone turnover—that decided the game.

A few other observations:

• BYU only completed four passes to wide receivers in this game.  That has to be the lowest total of the season, and perhaps in several years.
• The defense made a strong showing when it counted in a big game (after failing against FSU and TCU). 
• From the east stands, it appeared that the early hit on Jordan Wynn, may have been a late hit, but upon watching the game again, it looks like it was a clean hit.  And to his credit, he was able to come back and play through it.
• It is easy to question the play calling and coaching decisions in any game, and I don't want to get into that habit, but two scenarios in particular seemed to stand out to me... 1) the punt from the Utah 35 yard line in the second quarter on 4th and 5.   They could have tried a 52 yard field goal (probably the same odds as not getting a touchback) or gone for it (better odds).  In any case, it was a hard decision to understand in a close rivalry game when all parties know that every possession and every point is going to be needed at the end.  2) The clock management at the end.  Given the fourth quarter play, I felt the team had a much better shot at getting into field goal range and winning in regulation, than pulling it out in overtime.  Had BYU used a timeout with 1:10 left, they would have had plenty of time to try to pick up 40 yards and hit a field goal. Instead they took the ball with 0:29 and not much of chance to do anything.