BYU No Stranger to Top 10

BYU vaulted 11 spots in the AP poll yesterday, going from #20 to #9, placing them in the top 10 for the first time since October 12, 2008, when the team was ranked #9 the week before losing to TCU. The team tied a record for the largest jump as it also shot up 11 spots in 1990, from #16 to #5, after beating #1 Miami. And while it is true that it’s been a while since BYU has been a consistent presence in the top ten, they have now been ranked in the AP top ten 57 times, beginning with its debut on November 11, 1979—an average of roughly 2 weeks per season for the last 30 years.  This is also the earliest that BYU has appeared in the AP top 10 since, showing up in the preseason poll as #10 in 1985.

The team has been successful as top-tenners, having gone 44-9 (.830) while ranked in the top ten (three of the polls were final polls, so there was no game).

There are a number of interesting streaks and facts related to BYU’s ranking in the top ten:

• Has been ranked 57 times in the AP top 10
• First time was November 11, 1979
• This (week 1) is the earliest the team has appeared in the top 10 since debuting in the preseason poll at #10 in 1985
• Has been ranked in the top 10 during 10 different seasons (1979, 1981, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1990, 1996, 2001, 2008, 2009)
• Average 1.9 weeks per year in ranked in the top 10 over the last 30 years (since 1979)
• Spent three weeks in the top 10 last season (2008)
• Record of 44-9 (.830) as a top 10 team
• Team is 12-4 (.750) when ranked #9
• Has been ranked ninth 17 times, more than any other top ten spot
• Has never been ranked #2
• Has been ranked in the top 5 for 17 weeks total over three seasons (1984, 1990, 1996)
• Has received number one votes during 18 weeks in the top 10 (32% of the time while ranked in top 10), in four different seasons (1979, 1984, 1985, 1990)
• Last season was only the third season (1985, 1990, 2008) in which the team was ranked in every poll, preseason through final
• Team’s longest streak of continuous top 10 rankings is 16 weeks, from 9/11/84 to 9/3/85
• Has been ranked in 23 consecutive AP polls, the seventh longest active streak (Texas 143, USC 118, Ohio St 70, Florida 67, Oklahoma 52, Georgia 36) in FBS
• Was ranked for 35 consecutive weeks from 1984-1986, the school’s longest such streak

I have included here some of the actual data (all rankings are AP):

Seasons
1979—4 weeks (w10 #10, w11 #10, w12 #9, w13 #9)
1981—2 weeks (w4 #10, w5 #8)
1983—6 weeks (w10 #8, w11 #9, w12 #9, w13 #9, w14 #9, wF #7)
1984—14 weeks (w2 #8, w3#6, w4#8, w5#7, w6#5, w7#7, w8#5, w9#4, w10#4, w11#3, w12#1, w13#1, w14#1, wF#1)
1985—7 weeks (wP #10, w1 #8, w7 #9, w8 #7, w13 #9, w14 #9, w15 #9)
1990—9 weeks (w2 #5, w3 #4, w4 #4, w8 #9, w9 #10, w10 #8, w11 #5, w12 #4, w13 #4)
1996—6 weeks (w12 #10, w13 #8, w14 #7, w15 #6, w16 #5, wF #5)
2001—5 weeks (w10 #9, w11 #8, w12 #9, w13 #10, w14 #9)
2008—3 weeks (w5 #9, w6 #8, w7 #9)
2009—1 week (w1 #9)

Weeks by Ranking and Record When Ranked
#1—4 times (3-0, one final)
#2—none
#3—1 time (1-0)
#4—6 times (4-2)
#5—6 times (5-0, one final)
#6—2 times (2-0)
#7—5 times (3-1, one final)
#8—9 times (7-2)
#9—17 times (12-4, one current)
#10—7 times (7-0)

What We Learned in the Oklahoma Game

I was lucky enough to attend this one (making sure to gather a few extra game programs on the way out of the stadium), and then after some celebration pizza, returned home late Saturday night and proceeded to watch the entire game again on DVR. It was almost as good the second time.

After each game this season, I will post a weekly game recap along the lines of “what we learned in the fill-in-the-blank game”. There are already dozens of media outlets that will cover the game itself, so I will try to provide something that is unique and interesting (understanding that those reading this have likely already scoured the Internet trying to satiate their post-game thirst). Finally, given that this is the first game, and against such a quality opponent, there was a lot to learn.

1. Classy Fans—The Oklahoma fans were classy. In my conversations with them, I found them to be thoughtful, knowledgeable, and gracious. Before, during, and after the game, not a single four letter word was aimed my way… or my mother’s. As we were leaving the stadium, many OU fans reached out to congratulate us on the victory and a game well won. Having attended several Cougar non-conference road games over the last several years and been treated in just about every manner by opposing fans (at Arizona being the worst), this was refreshing and commendable. I can only hope that opposing fans are treated in a similar manner by the Cougar faithful.

2. De Facto BCS Game—This was a de facto BCS game for BYU. Nicest stadium in the world. Prime time ESPN. 75,000 Fans. Top 3 Opponent. Big Payout (only about $1.5M for BYU—compared to $9M for a non-AQ in a BCS game—but it didn’t have to be split with anyone else in the conference, so it is effectively about the same if not better).

3. Max Hall—Despite a few times looking a bit nervous as the stadium’s high definition cameras and big screen captured his eyes at the line, Max played a gutsy game, shedding the monkey from his back and redeeming himself completely from the last season’s forgettable ending.

4. This Isn’t Last Year’s Defense—the defense was the difference in this game and may end up being the biggest story of the year for this team. Across the board they were quicker, more assignment sound, and better able to disguise their formations. Not once did OU’s supposed superior “athleticism” appear to be a factor against the BYU defense. There were a number of defensive standouts:

• Jamie Hill—In his first game with full defensive play calling responsibilities, he came through with flying colors—calling the right plays, mixing up the alignments, and confusing the OU offense.
• New Positions—There may have been 8 starters back on defense from last year’s underperforming bunch, but several of them were in new positions—corners moved to safeties, safeties to linebackers, linebackers to ends, and ends to tackles. All of this added up to increased speed and the right people in the right spots.
• Secondary—Brian Logan and Brandon Bradley were able to effectively lock down the outside, staying step for step with the OU wideouts, while Scott Johnson and Andrew Rich did the same in the middle.
• Jordan Pendleton—Seemed to be all over the field. After bulking up somewhat and converting to outside linebacker from safety in the offseason, he seemed to be in on the action in several key plays and will be a handful for opposing teams all sesason.

 5. Preparation—The team seemed to be well prepared for just about everything from handling the noise in the arena with silent snap counts (several players said that the piped-in noise in the practice facility was louder) to having a go ahead fourth down play ready to roll without hesitation. Kudos to the coaches.

6. Chambers is Improved--With the caveat that he didn’t get a lot of playing time last season, when O’Neil Chambers did play last season he looked somewhat sluggish and hesitant. That is not the case this season as he appears confident and quick. Look for him to become a key part of the offense as the season progresses.

7. Pitta Is Back—After playing injured in the last few games last season, he appears fully healed and back to his clutch form. Future opponents be warned.

8. The Kariya Surprise—Brian Kariya, former walk-on, filled in admirably at running back for the injured two-time thousand-yarder Harvey Unga, and should be able to provide adequate shoulders to retain some of the load upon Unga’s return.

9. Kicking Game Questions—The punting game with freshman Riley Stephenson appears to be in good hands, however issues around place kicking and kickoffs that originally surfaced during fall camp almost prevented the victory. A missed field goal. Short kickoffs. A crucial kickoff going out of bounds. Hopefully Mitch Payne will be able to step it up and perform at a higher level, or this deficiency may end up costing BYU at least one game this year.

10. Upon Further Review—In a game filled with penalties on both sides, the refs seemed surprisingly balanced. However, there were three key penalties that appeared questionable in the single replay provided in the stadium. After watching them again several times at home, here is my take:

• Late Hit Out of Bounds—After seeing it from another angle, this looked reasonable, if not clear-cut. Good call.
• Pass Interference on BYU in End Zone—The replays on TV only reaffirmed my belief that this was a clean play on the ball. Perhaps even a textbook play. However, it would have been difficult for the referees to have seen the angles that TV provided. Poor but understandable call.
• Pass Interference on OU in End Zone—I questioned this one at the time, thinking we caught a break and that George should have made the catch. While I still think George should have caught the ball, it looks like he was pushed in the back just before the ball’s arrival. Good call.

11. Weekend Spin—Despite ESPN’s continuous coverage of Sam Bradford’s status drowning out the story of BYU’s performance, anyone who watched the game knows that this was a game that BYU earned. They were step for step with OU if not ahead. After a missed field goal, a fumbled punt return at the 30 yard line, and a fumble into the end zone, OU was lucky not to be down 17-0 at the end of the first half, WITH Bradford in the game.

So now with game one in the books, the question remains as to how the pollsters will handle this one… The Wall Street Journal put BYU 5th in their poll over the weekend. The AP and Coaches poll will come out on Tuesday. Keeping in mind that polls don’t mean much at this point in the season, I expect them to land between 8 and 11.

Lastly, the team will now once again find itself in the media spotlight and in opponents’ sights—how it handles that pressure will determine the remainder of the season. Hopefully lessons were learned last year that will help the team avoid a similar fate, remaining focused on one game at a time and enjoying the journey.

What else did we learn? Post a comment and share your thoughts...

The Numbers Inside the Missionary Advantage

Despite the fact that it seems to come up about every other week in the national media, the notion that BYU has players on its football team that are somewhat older than typical college athletes is not a new story. Many of their players do leave school and football behind (among other things) to spend two years at their own expense in an assigned region of the world providing service and sharing a message of faith and hope.

Both Pros and Cons
Some see this as an advantage—players return older, more physically mature, more mentally mature, and with increased discipline and focus. Others see it as a disadvantage—players return out of shape and rusty having not played football or worked out regularly for two years, players may lose their aggressive edge, and managing personnel and recruiting when losing 40+ players after every season can be a scholarship allocation and depth chart nightmare. It is often also pointed out that if it were such an advantage, then other schools would encourage their LDS athletes to serve missions (the opposite is usually true, as they are generally discouraged from serving). There is merit to the arguments on both sides, and the debate over whether having former missionaries on the team is an advantage or disadvantage will inevitably continue.

Apples and Oranges
What is nearly always missing in the debate, however, is the magnitude of the age difference, or advantage, in question. It is not uncommon for even respected national sports writers to compare an occasional 25 or 26 year old player on BYU’s roster to an 18 year old true freshman on the opposing team. Obviously that is a mismatch. But the underlying question is whether that is an advantage due to the missionary program or not. Given that a mission is a maximum of two years, such comparisons are clearly inaccurate, as other factors (such as late enrollment, redshirt, or injury exceptions) available to any athlete must have led that player to be older. The maximum age advantage then could only be two years—which would be the case if every BYU football player were a returned missionary, and no players on the other team were. But this is not the case—not all BYU players are, and there are some on other teams that have served missions as well. So, with the BYU missionary data courtesy of Carey Hoki, in the BYU Football Media Relations Office, we will take a look at the actual age difference of BYU players versus each of the teams BYU plays this season.

Assumptions
A few assumptions used and how they impact the analysis:

1. Assume that all players having served a mission are two years older than they would otherwise be. Conservative—although two years is the expected duration, we know that some missionaries return home for various reasons prior to two years.
2. No players on other teams have served missions. Conservative—there are a number of return missionaries on other teams, most notably Utah and Utah State.
3. Redshirt years will not be considered, since that is an option available to all players at all schools and unrelated to missionary service. Although it is possible that BYU redshirts more of its players than others, since they are often not in game shape upon returning from two years off, any age difference due to redshirting cannot be attributed to missionary service. Neutral.
4. Average assumed age of all non-missionary players (for BYU and opponents) is 18.5 (Fr), 19.5 (So), 20.5 (Jr), 21.5 (Sr). Any other age differences are due to other factors. Neutral.
5. No other player delays are considered (such as military service, peace corp, delayed entrance, etc.). Conservative—there are other players in other programs that also delay their athletic careers to participate in something else for a time, extending their eligibility.
6. Class mix impacts the average age of a team and varies from program to program. We assume that the average collective class mix of the teams that BYU plays (a roughly 10% sample) is typical of all college football teams. Neutral.
7. Some teams may lose more than the average number of players to the NFL early, reducing the number of seniors on the team. This will not be considered in this analysis. Neutral.
8. Fall camp rosters have been used for each team. There have obviously been changes due to injury and attrition since these were released, but it is assumed that such circumstances affect each team equally. Air Force has been excluded because it does not include freshmen on it preseason roster. Neutral.
9. This looks at the entire roster, not just the starters or two deep. Neutral to slightly aggressive. This assumes that the percentage of starters that have been on missions is the same as the roster as a whole, which is close, but not exact. It looks like 13-14 players will start that have been on missions (59% compared to overall average of 56%).

The Relevant Difference
Based on the typical class mix, and given the assumptions above, the average age of a college football player is 19.71 years. Without considering missions, and given BYU’s current class mix, the average age of BYU’s players would also be 19.71 years. Of the 106 players on BYU’s roster in fall camp, 59 of them spent time as a missionary (55.7%). When considering the additional two years in age for those players, BYU’s average age is 20.82 years. The difference then, and only relevant number to the missionary debate is 1.11 years. Whenever comparisons are made or debates are had, as a team, BYU is only an average of 1.11 years older than a player of similar class on the other team.

                                            Fr          So          Jr         Sr      Total
Average Age (US)                18.5      19.5       20.5      21.5
Class Mix (US)                    37.6%    22.1%    21.7%    18.5%
Weighted Ave Age (US)                                                          19.71

BYU Players by Class            37          30         19           20         106

Class Mix (BYU)                  34.9%    28.3%    17.9%     18.9%
BYU Ave Age w/o Mission  18.5        19.5      20.5        21.5      19.71

BYU Former Missionaries     13          19         11           16          59
Percent of BYU Class          35.1%    63.3%   57.9%     80.0%       55.7%
BYU Ave Age w/ Mission    19.2       20.8       21.7       23.1      20.82
Actual Age Difference (yrs)  0.70     1.27       1.16       1.60        1.11

Against the Schedule

Here is how the age of BYU players stacks up against each of the opponents this season. The only difference here, being the class mix—some teams are heavy on upperclassmen and others have a disproportionate number of freshmen. BYU’s players range from being 0.97 years older than UNLV (52% juniors and seniors) to being 1.27 years older than Colorado State (45% freshmen).

Key Position Battle Results

As fall camp is now over and the team is finalizing game prep for the much-anticipated opener with the Sooners, it’s time for a look at how the key position battles turned out (as identified previously).

Key Position Battle Results
As camp opened on Aug 3, I broke down the position battles into three categories—open or unsettled starting spots, key backup spots, and locked down spots. Within each of those, I gave some thoughts to the various positions. Here is how those battled turned out:

1. Open Starting Spots (OL, WR, CB, DT, ST)
• Offensive Line—This position has lived up to its billing as there has been plenty of drama on the line over the last three weeks. Matt Reynolds, the lone returning starter, broke his hand and missed most of camp, although is expected to start in the opener. Jason Speredon, the tentative starter at left guard, tore a rotator cuff and will miss the season due to surgery. Jesse Taufi has not yet qualified academically (although he may be able to join the team at some point during the season). Houston Reynolds, expected to be a backup, is out for the season with an ACL. The surprise of camp is Marco “Moose” Thorson (6-3, 321 So) who seems to have locked down the left guard spot over Braden Hansen and Ryan Freeman. Likely starters are Matt Reynolds (LT), Moose Thorson (LG), RJ Willing (C), Terrence Brown (RG), Nick Alletto (RT).
• Wide Receiver—McKay Jacobsen and O’Neill Chambers are locks as expected. Luke Ashworth and Spencer Hofoka have been the next two in. Brett Thompson (6-3, 216 Fr) has been performing well in practice and will likely crack the rotation before the season is over.
• Corner Back—Several injuries at this spot have created a revolving door. Brandon Bradley’s tendonitis in the knee flared up during the first week, and still has not fully recovered. He was expected to start at boundary corner, but JC transfer Lee Aguirre has taken advantage of the opportunity to showcase his skills, creating some question as to who will actually start on Saturday. At the other side, freshman Robbie Buckner was an early surprise locking down a spot with the ones, before he was sidelined with injury. Another JC transfer Brian Logan, has performed well enough to win the spot in his absence, but will be playing with a broken finger come game day.
• Defensive Tackle—a bright spot of camp. Russell T was able to join the team, Romney Fuga has been able to quickly regain his pre-mission form, and Tevita Hola has been declared the most improved player on the team by Bronco. Bronco has also been personally coaching this position during camp as a way to get back to what he loves.
• Special Teams—Jacobsen and Chambers have locked down kick return as expected. Riley Stephenson has also been very good as punter. It is kickoffs and field goals that have been surprisingly competitive as Mitch Payne was somewhat inconsistent on field goals and kickoffs during camp. He is still listed as the starter and hopefully will be able to perform come game time, but Stephenson could fill in well if called upon.

2. Key Backup Spots (QB, RB)
• Quarterback—Brendon Gaskins backed up Hall last season and was slotted to do so again this year, at least for the beginning of the season. However, Riley Nelson will be the only returning quarterback on the roster next year, and Bronco stated that he wanted to get him at least 12 quarters of football this season. Gaskins, approached Bronco and suggested that Riley be given the backup spot in an effort to prepare him for next season—it was going to happen at some point during the season, but it was big of Gaskins to expedite it for the good of the team at his own expense.
• Running Back—Two year starter Harvey Unga was held out of much of fall practice as a precautionary measure and still managed to pull a hamstring, but is expected to play Saturday. Manase Tonga was cleared to enroll in school and has picked up where he left off—he will be expected to immediately take some of the burden off of Unga. JJ DiLuigi showed enough to secure the third spot—backup tailback—and Brian Kariya will back up Tonga.

3. Locked Down Spots (LB, S, DE, TE)
• Linebacker—the starters are the same here, but it is notable that Brandon Ogletree (5-11, 222 Fr) and Jordan Atkinson (6-3, 243 Jr) cracked the two-deep. Shiloah Te’o, backup strong safety, also played some at backer as part of a nickel package.
• Safety—Scott Johnson and Andrew Rich consistently performed well in camp and should make this position the strength of the defense. True freshman Craig Bills (6-1, 209 Fr) impressed coaches and teammates this fall and earned the right to backup Johnson at free safety. He will likely see the field sooner than later—possibly in every game.
• Defensive End—With starters Jan Jorgenson and Brett Denney locked in, the only notable development is the solid play of Vic So’oto, an athletic tight end-turned-linebacker-turned-defensive end.
• Tight End—Braden Brown earned the third spot behind Dennis Pitta and Andrew George and will be the heir apparent next season.