There is something about being a BYU fan that allows for rugged optimism and hope in the face of diminishing possibility. There nearly always remains a way to win, a path to victory, or some combination of great playmaking, lucky breaks, and a touch of magic that keeps the dream alive. Yet, despite this, at some point the possibilities and optimal combinations become no longer viable. For fans of some teams, this may have happened early in the first quarter down 14-0, or at half time down 21-7, or even when TCU went up 31-7 ten minutes into the third quarter. But for BYU fans, it likely wasn’t until midway through the fourth quarter when defeat was acknowledged. They stay until the end of the game. They believe in the possibilities.
Here is what we learned this week in response to last week’s questions:
• Can Max Hall get rid of the ball in time? For the most part. There was quite a bit of pressure on the pocket, but Hall seemingly had enough time to get rid of the ball, and despite a couple of sacks, for most part was able to do so. The real issue seemed to be that there were no open receivers to throw to, resulting in coverage sacks or dumps for short to no gain.
• Will the BYU defensive front seven be able to contain the TCU run game and still get some pressure on Andy Dalton? Yes and no. Run game contained? Check. Pressure on Andy Dalton? Non-existent. For the third week in a row, BYU was able to contain the running game (giving up 127 yards on 37 carries to TCU is respectable). But until late in the game, there was almost no pressure on Dalton, allowing him to take his time waiting for something to open up. In the fourth quarter, when pressure was finally applied via blitz, Dalton threw several bad passes and looked flustered. And although too little too late, hopefully the coaches will identify this and incorporate it into future game plans a bit earlier.
• Has the BYU defense learned to adapt to the Wildcat and can it contain Jeremy Kerley? Yes. Kerley was held to 12 yards on 3 carries.
• What impact will the return of the injured have? Slightly positive. The return of Tonga improved the running game. With several players back special teams coverage was improved. The secondary, with a still hurt Johnson playing and flu-recovered Bradley, was not significantly better. McKay Jacobsen, still out with a hamstring, would have made a difference in this game, but did not play.
• Will BYU win the turnover battle? No. BYU 2, TCU 0. I wrote last week, “whichever team wins the turnover battle on Saturday is likely to win the game.” The interception in the opening drive of the third quarter leading to a TCU field goal was ominously reminiscent of a similar outcome in the FSU game. The best way for BYU to come back at that point was to get a few turnovers, but it never happened as the Cougars gave up a fumble to go with it.
• Will BYU’s running game find success? Not when it counts. The total yards were decent (Harvey had 123), but much of it came near the end of the game, when (surprise) TCU was giving up some room to run. The greater question is why BYU was running at that point. When it mattered most—on third downs, short distances, etc.—the run game was essentially shut down. What really hurt is that the passing game, was similarly stymied, and as mentioned already, the receivers appeared unable to get open when they needed to.
• Will BYU have the emotional intensity to match TCU without letting it interfere with their execution? Mostly. TCU did not appear to dominate the emotional battle as they obviously did last year. Nor did it seem to be primarily lack of execution that lost the game as it did in the FSU game (missed tackles, turnovers, etc.). BYU seemed focused and prepared to play, but matched up with an superior team (at least on this night) and with a few bad breaks, got behind early and was unable to overcome the deficit.
A few other things of note:
• Looks like the Poinsettia Bowl for the Cougars this year. The Vegas Bowl has already said that they would like to change it up and fans feel the same way, so with a BCS game out of the question, San Diego seems the likely destination. For your Holiday planning, that game will be played on Wednesday, December 23 at 5pm (PST) on ESPN. This will be the fifth year of that bowl game (first played in 2005), with the MWC playing in it each year, going 3-1. Interestingly, BYU has played in the Vegas Bowl all four years of the Poinsettia Bowl’s existence.
• Good time for a bye week. McKay Jacobsen will likely be back to full speed by the Wyoming game on Nov 7.
• Fans will always question the coaches’ decisions and play calling. But there are some plays and decisions that are easier to question than others. In particular, I thought it curious that they called a running play on third and eleven when we were within scoring range and that they decided to punt on fourth and two near midfield, down big in the second half…
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
Friday, October 23, 2009
What to Watch for Against TCU
If Gary Patterson thought last year’s game was a media circus, he is likely to expand his horizons a bit this weekend, as the ESPN Game Day event has become the talk of the town in fan circles and Provo has become the town of the talk on the national scene. The nation will be watching. All day. The Cougars may actually be able to undo some of the damage done in the Florida State game by showing up on Saturday and showing what they have shown in the last couple of games. Yes, underneath all of the hype and hoopla, there is an actual game being played, and yes, it should be a good one. It seems almost a distraction right now to focus on elements of the game when there are clever signs to be made, television images to be aware of, and talking heads to analyze. But let’s do it anyway.
• Can Max Hall get rid of the ball in time? Having enough time to throw is relative. If you have a lot of time, you can throw it deep, where it takes some time for plays and patterns to develop. If you don’t have time, you need to throw dump it quickly. Max (and Anae) have been much better at dumping it off this season, introducing a screen pass and throwing more underneath routes.
• Will the BYU defensive front seven be able to contain the TCU run game and still get some pressure on Andy Dalton? Aside from the Florida State game, BYU has been able to contain the run in nearly every game this season. However, last week, despite holding SDSU to only 20 yards rushing, there was almost no pressure on the quarterback and Lindley looked like an all-american. Dalton is a better runner and passer, and if given time, will be able to do more damage.
• Has the BYU defense learned to adapt to the Wildcat and can it contain Jeremy Kerley? Last season Jeremy Kerley ran seemingly untouched every time he lined up behind center. This season he has been dangerous as well on special teams.
• What impact will the return of the injured have? Last week several players were out with injuries, as well as another half dozen or so playing under the influence of influenza. Manase Tonga (knee) should immediately upgrade the run game. Improvement from Scott Johnson (ankle) and Brandon Bradley (flu) should improve the secondary. McKay Jacobsen (hamstring) will be a game time decision. Several special teams players are also back.
• Will BYU win the turnover battle? Whichever team wins the turnover battle on Saturday is likely to win the game. Both teams are so evenly matched that an extra possession or improved field position could be the difference. It was the 5 turnovers against Florida State that was the Cougar’s undoing as much as anything.
• Will BYU’s running game find success? The passing game will be there. Will there be a complimentary running game. If so, the Cougars will be in good shape. If not, this one could easily become a battle to the wire or worse.
• Will BYU have the emotional intensity to match TCU without letting it interfere with their execution? That is something that all of us will be watching. It was obvious last year in Ft. Worth, that the BYU team had no idea what had just hit them. After the first possession, it will be clear again, which team showed up for the emotional battle. But key to that will be maintaining focus and execution at the same time—Bronco said that he has never seen his players as fired up as they were prior to the FSU game, but that lead to missed assignments and lack of focus, as football fans across the country are well aware.
I am putting on my Cosmo head right now and picking the Cougars to win this one. The coaches will have a great game plan for this one and do what is necessary to get the team up for the game. BYU stays focused and avoids big mistakes. The defense contains TCU’s run game and BYU is able to get 100+ yards on the ground opening up the passing game even more. Max gets rid of the ball when under pressure, limits turnovers, and guides the team to its second victory over a top 10 opponent this season. BYU 34 TCU 27.
Feel free to add your thoughts on what to watch for and your predictions below.
• Can Max Hall get rid of the ball in time? Having enough time to throw is relative. If you have a lot of time, you can throw it deep, where it takes some time for plays and patterns to develop. If you don’t have time, you need to throw dump it quickly. Max (and Anae) have been much better at dumping it off this season, introducing a screen pass and throwing more underneath routes.
• Will the BYU defensive front seven be able to contain the TCU run game and still get some pressure on Andy Dalton? Aside from the Florida State game, BYU has been able to contain the run in nearly every game this season. However, last week, despite holding SDSU to only 20 yards rushing, there was almost no pressure on the quarterback and Lindley looked like an all-american. Dalton is a better runner and passer, and if given time, will be able to do more damage.
• Has the BYU defense learned to adapt to the Wildcat and can it contain Jeremy Kerley? Last season Jeremy Kerley ran seemingly untouched every time he lined up behind center. This season he has been dangerous as well on special teams.
• What impact will the return of the injured have? Last week several players were out with injuries, as well as another half dozen or so playing under the influence of influenza. Manase Tonga (knee) should immediately upgrade the run game. Improvement from Scott Johnson (ankle) and Brandon Bradley (flu) should improve the secondary. McKay Jacobsen (hamstring) will be a game time decision. Several special teams players are also back.
• Will BYU win the turnover battle? Whichever team wins the turnover battle on Saturday is likely to win the game. Both teams are so evenly matched that an extra possession or improved field position could be the difference. It was the 5 turnovers against Florida State that was the Cougar’s undoing as much as anything.
• Will BYU’s running game find success? The passing game will be there. Will there be a complimentary running game. If so, the Cougars will be in good shape. If not, this one could easily become a battle to the wire or worse.
• Will BYU have the emotional intensity to match TCU without letting it interfere with their execution? That is something that all of us will be watching. It was obvious last year in Ft. Worth, that the BYU team had no idea what had just hit them. After the first possession, it will be clear again, which team showed up for the emotional battle. But key to that will be maintaining focus and execution at the same time—Bronco said that he has never seen his players as fired up as they were prior to the FSU game, but that lead to missed assignments and lack of focus, as football fans across the country are well aware.
I am putting on my Cosmo head right now and picking the Cougars to win this one. The coaches will have a great game plan for this one and do what is necessary to get the team up for the game. BYU stays focused and avoids big mistakes. The defense contains TCU’s run game and BYU is able to get 100+ yards on the ground opening up the passing game even more. Max gets rid of the ball when under pressure, limits turnovers, and guides the team to its second victory over a top 10 opponent this season. BYU 34 TCU 27.
Feel free to add your thoughts on what to watch for and your predictions below.
Thursday, October 22, 2009
An Updated Comparison of Conference TV Contracts
[Note: This article was originally published on this site and philsteele.com on September 18, 2009 and this updated version (with regards to the Big East and Notre Dame) supersedes all that was written previously.]
Once again, the Mountain West is taking collateral damage from its TV partners in the standoff between Direct TV and Comcast over Versus, and has raised the issue of conference television contracts to the forefront. Of particular note is the fact that ESPN Game Day will be in Provo to catch the excitement of the BYU vs. TCU game, while Versus will actually be broadcasting the game, but just not into any homes with Direct TV (most college football fans, and especially out-of-footprint MWC fans).
However, it is not just the MWC that desires more from its TV partners. I wrote a piece comparing the TV contracts with each conference back in September prior to the Florida State game. That article has been one of the most widely cited, searched, and seen publications on this site. It was pointed out that Notre Dame had not been included and that I had not considered the basketball schools from the Big East. I have addressed both of those concerns in this updated view.
With that introduction, let’s take a closer look at the MWC TV contract relative to the other conferences’ contracts, including the pros and cons of each.
[I should note that I am a non-MWC footprint Direct TV subscriber, and a relatively happy one at that. This year and last year have offered great access to all of the BYU games as well as most other conference games—almost enough good times to help me forget the years of purgatory, when in 2006 and 2007 many of the games were not available to me at any price. It was during those lean times that I purchased a Slingbox, which has merely acted as my emergency backup during the recent fat times, but may be called upon to come through in the clutch this weekend due to the Versus contract disputes.]
Conf Teams $/Year $/Yr/Tm TV Partners
SEC 12 $205.0 $17.1 CBS, ESPN
Big 10 11 $174.0 $15.8 BTN, ABC/ESPN, CBS*
ND 1 $11.0 $11.0 NBC, Big East*
Big 12 12 $79.5 $6.6 ABC/ESPN, FSN
ACC 12 $66.9 $5.6 ABC/ESPN, Raycom*
Pac 10 10 $53.2 $5.3 ABC/ESPN, FSN, ABC/ESPN*
Big East 8^ $45.3 $3.7 ABC/ESPN, CBS*
MWC 9 $12.0 $1.3 CBSC/Mtn.
CUSA 12 $11.3 $0.9 CBSC, ESPN
WAC 9 $4.0 $0.4 ESPN
MAC 13 $1.4 $0.1 ESPN
Sunbelt 9 $0.0 $0.0 ESPN, Cox/Charter
*Separate basketball contracts
^Big East has 16 schools, only 8 of which participate in football and receive $1.7M each for football only; All 16 schools receive an additional $2.0M per year for basketball
When it comes to taking a closer look at the contracts, there are essentially four tiers—The Haves, The Wannabe Haves, The Not-Quite Have-Nots, and the Have-Nots. It is interesting to note that every conference, with the exception of the MWC, has some sort of arrangement with ESPN.
Upon closer consideration (and in light of the SEC/ESPN domino), it appears that the trend is toward larger, longer contracts for the conferences with the biggest TV draws, which leaves fewer slots and dollars for the rest of the football world. The MWC and Big Ten have chosen to create their own networks in an effort to combat that trend. The Big 12, ACC, Pac 10 are exploring that option now. Notre Dame has watched helplessly as it relinquished its title as king of college football television, as all SEC teams now make more than it does, yes, even Vanderbilt. The Big East is hanging on to what it has (primarily stemming from legacy efforts and basketball prowess) and looking to improve its lineup for the next go-around. Conference USA is heading back down to the have-nots and the WAC is hoping to move up to the not-quite have-nots. Overall, the MWC package is better than any of the alternatives its non-AQ brethren have by a long shot.
The Haves
The SEC and Big 10 are a head and shoulders above everyone else. The bar has been set and other conferences that want to keep up are scrambling to find a way to match the TV revenue that they are going to bring in over the next 15 years.
1. SEC
The SEC has an $825M, 15 year contract with CBS, for an exclusive time slot and first pick of games (14 regular season and championship game). The league made headlines earlier this summer when it signed a second 15 year deal for $2.25B with ESPN. ESPN gets its pick of the rest of the games, some of which are sublicensed to regional carriers. It is hard to find any issues with these arrangements. This large investment by ESPN will ensure that college football fans continue to hear about the “dominance” of the SEC from the Sports Leader for years to come, and due to limited time slots, will also preclude other leagues from signing similarly valued deals with ESPN.
2. Big 10
The Big Ten Network launched last year and is projected to bring in $2.8B over the next 25 years; this also guarantees coverage for all of the leagues games. In addition, there is a $1.0B, 10 year contract with ABC/ESPN, and a $20M, 10 year basketball deal with CBS. When the SEC is essentially using ESPN as its own conference network, the Big 10 did the next best thing by starting its own, and has a high enough profile to generate more viewers and dollars than the Mtn.
3. Notre Dame
Notre Dame was once the king of the college football television world and it wasn’t even close. However, recently, it must find itself looking up at the Big 10 and SEC with envy and imagining the implications of being left behind. Despite this, it still brings in almost double the next closest school, and so remains one of the “haves” but could be quickly relegated to “wannabe have” status in the next 3-5 years. The school agreed to a 5 year contract extension with its football TV partner NBC this summer, and although terms have not been disclosed, they are believed to be in the same neighborhood as the previous contract, which would put it at about $9.0M per year. For basketball, the Irish are affiliated with the Big East and bring in another $2.0M per year or so. If Notre Dame ever decides to end its independent status, it will be because of its inability to remain relevant and draw viewers (and thus TV dollars) while being left out of the ongoing BCS and conference supremacy debate.
The Wannabe Haves
The Big 12, ACC, and Pac 10 feel an urgency to keep up with the Joneses. Rumors of creation of joint TV networks between Big 12 and ACC or Pac 10 and ACC have been flying. The Pac 10 brought in a new commissioner with the primary task of working out a more favorable TV arrangement (Pac 10 expansion may even be a possibility).
4. Big 12
There is a $480M, 8 year deal with ABC to show first pick of up to 19 games per season (and ESPN has rights to all basketball games). FSN has a 4 year, $78M deal to show the rest. Of those, FSN has sublicensed 7 games to ESPN and 5 to Versus. Overall good exposure, but significantly less compensation for the effort than the SEC or Big 10.
5. ACC
The addition of Miami, Virginia Tech, and Boston College has not quite played out in TV market land as was hoped. The ACC has a 7 year, $258M contract with ABC/ESPN that is expiring soon. In that deal, ABC gets first pick, then ESPN/ESPN2, then Raycom (as part of basketball deal), and lastly ESPNU. Raycom has a subordinate deal with them for 10 years for $300M for basketball. The ESPN contract requires a marquee game on Labor Day each year. It is obvious that the conference is exploring all avenues as it has been linked to nearly all of the mega conference TV network deal rumors.
6. Pac 10
The main contract here is $125M with ABC/ESPN for 20 games per year over 5 years ending in 2011. There is another contract with FSN for 5 years and $97M—5 of those games have been sublicensed to Versus, keeping 13 windows for games on FSN. The remainder of the games end up on a hodgepodge of Fox regional networks such as FSN Northwest, Fox Sports West, Fox Sports Arizona, Oregon Sports Netowrk, CSN Bay Area, etc. The prime gripe here is that most games are not readily available to a national audience. New conference commissioner Larry Scott was able to raise the profile of the Women’s Tennis Tour through savvy TV contracts and was hired to do the same with the Pac 10.
The Not-Quite Have-Nots
The Big East, Mountain West and Conference USA find themselves with real TV contracts that actually compensate them for the product (differentiating them from the WAC, MAC and Sunbelt), but for annual amounts and levels of exposure that don’t qualify them to be in the same grouping with the previous four conferences. It leaves them looking up with envy, but also looking down knowing it could be worse. The Big East is by far the best off of these three, and could be argued that it deserves to be with the group above based on total revenue, but since more than half of its money comes from basketball, leaving football only TV revenue of $1.7M (which is close to what the MWC makes), and the fact that it has been forced to play games at rather fringe start times, the Big East has been placed in this group. It is also unlikely that the Big East will be able to maintain that level of revenue in its next contract unless some significant changes are made.
7. Big East
The Big East has a 6 year, roughly $218M deal with ESPN ($80M for football split 8 ways and $138M for basketball split 16 ways) running through 2013, which appears to be a Mike Tranghese boondoggle. In any case, the league is getting paid and has 17 games guaranteed to be on ABC or ESPN, with at least 3 on ABC. In order to achieve that the conference had to agree to up to 4 games on Thursdays, 2 on Sundays and mutually agreeable Friday games. 5 additional games can appear on ESPNU. Given that this is only an 8 team league, there are not that many games to begin with, especially in conference, and only 37% of these televised games ended up being played on Saturdays, effectively ensuring no marquee Big East games on the sport’s biggest day. The conference also has a 6 year $54M contract with CBS that pays another $9M per year (but must be split 16 ways). So football schools make $3.7M per year ($1.7M from football and $2.0M from basketball), while the basketball only schools get roughly $2.0M each). This is the only conference that makes more from televising its basketball games than it does from its football games, and likely owes its status as an AQ-BCS football conference to its perception as the number one basketball conference. With the recent beating the conference has taken in the media and from fans, there are rumors that the Big East is again looking to expand (Memphis or an ACC reverse raid), in order to improve its profile and reputation and cling to its football TV revenue.
8. Mountain West
After leaving ESPN, for increased revenue and regular game times, the Mountain West television situation is finally settling down. What was originally a 12 year, $120M contract with CSTV, added Comcast the day after it was announced, and was since sold to CBS College Sports. The Mtn. was created and Versus (which is owned by Comcast) was given 8 games per year (as part of the contract 8 games per year must be distributed to a national audience of 70 million homes or more). CBSC has the rights to up to 24 games per year (and has selected 11 this year). Overall, the national footprint/access is improving as is the quality of the product; however, what suffers is the exposure on ESPN—both on TV and online, as the station does not have any vested interest in developing the leauge’s profile. There is also no web streaming available.
9. Conference USA
There is a legacy contract with ESPN/ESPN2 for 10 games per season paying $45.8M and another with CBSC for $22M over 6 years for its pick of the remainder of the games. Both contracts end at the end of the 2010 football season, and were originally set up pre-Big East raid of Cincinnati, Louisville, and South Florida, and pre-MWC raid of TCU. Many games required to be played on weeknights, in order to get on TV. When these contracts end, the conference will likely take a major hit on the revenue and exposure side of things.
The Have-Nots
10. WAC
The conference moves from its $1M per year contract with ESPN to one paying closer to $4M per year starting in 2010-11. The old deal allows ESPN/ESPN2 rights to a minimum of 8 games and the new deal requires a minimum of 10. The new deal also requires at least 6 games on ESPNU. Many of the games on ESPN/ESPN2 will be played on weeknights in order to find TV time. The silver lining in all of this is the online streaming and rights retained by schools for games not televised. This contract leaves a lot to be desired, but it is something and provides the exposure that is desperately needed by a conference trying to raise its profile. Should Boise no longer be a member of this conference during the next round of negotiations, look for the TV situation to take a step backwards.
11. MAC
The MAC will take what it can get. It has an 8 year, roughly $11M deal with ESPN to televise a minimum of 11 games—6 on ESPN/ESPN2 and 5 on ESPNU. Nearly all of these games will be played on weeknights. The bright spot for the MAC is that the creation of the Big Ten Network and the removal of Big Ten games from regional networks is that there is a demand for sports programming on many of the regional networks and many MAC games are being syndicated regionally.
12. Sunbelt
Its not easy being at the bottom of the college football food chain. The Sunbelt has a 3 year contract with ESPN to show at least 2 games per year. These games must be willing to allow for a 12 day advance scheduling window and play on weeknights. It isn’t clear if the league even receives any meaningful compensation for its product, but is looking for exposure however it can get it. Comcast/Charter Sports own the regional rights.
Note: Here are a few links to other sources covering TV contracts…
1. http://mattsarzsports.blogspot.com/2009/08/discussing-conferences-thyeir-tv.html
2. http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/stewart_mandel/07/24/tv-deals/index.html
3. http://www.ncaabbs.com/printthread.php?tid=350645
Once again, the Mountain West is taking collateral damage from its TV partners in the standoff between Direct TV and Comcast over Versus, and has raised the issue of conference television contracts to the forefront. Of particular note is the fact that ESPN Game Day will be in Provo to catch the excitement of the BYU vs. TCU game, while Versus will actually be broadcasting the game, but just not into any homes with Direct TV (most college football fans, and especially out-of-footprint MWC fans).
However, it is not just the MWC that desires more from its TV partners. I wrote a piece comparing the TV contracts with each conference back in September prior to the Florida State game. That article has been one of the most widely cited, searched, and seen publications on this site. It was pointed out that Notre Dame had not been included and that I had not considered the basketball schools from the Big East. I have addressed both of those concerns in this updated view.
With that introduction, let’s take a closer look at the MWC TV contract relative to the other conferences’ contracts, including the pros and cons of each.
[I should note that I am a non-MWC footprint Direct TV subscriber, and a relatively happy one at that. This year and last year have offered great access to all of the BYU games as well as most other conference games—almost enough good times to help me forget the years of purgatory, when in 2006 and 2007 many of the games were not available to me at any price. It was during those lean times that I purchased a Slingbox, which has merely acted as my emergency backup during the recent fat times, but may be called upon to come through in the clutch this weekend due to the Versus contract disputes.]
Conf Teams $/Year $/Yr/Tm TV Partners
SEC 12 $205.0 $17.1 CBS, ESPN
Big 10 11 $174.0 $15.8 BTN, ABC/ESPN, CBS*
ND 1 $11.0 $11.0 NBC, Big East*
Big 12 12 $79.5 $6.6 ABC/ESPN, FSN
ACC 12 $66.9 $5.6 ABC/ESPN, Raycom*
Pac 10 10 $53.2 $5.3 ABC/ESPN, FSN, ABC/ESPN*
Big East 8^ $45.3 $3.7 ABC/ESPN, CBS*
MWC 9 $12.0 $1.3 CBSC/Mtn.
CUSA 12 $11.3 $0.9 CBSC, ESPN
WAC 9 $4.0 $0.4 ESPN
MAC 13 $1.4 $0.1 ESPN
Sunbelt 9 $0.0 $0.0 ESPN, Cox/Charter
*Separate basketball contracts
^Big East has 16 schools, only 8 of which participate in football and receive $1.7M each for football only; All 16 schools receive an additional $2.0M per year for basketball
When it comes to taking a closer look at the contracts, there are essentially four tiers—The Haves, The Wannabe Haves, The Not-Quite Have-Nots, and the Have-Nots. It is interesting to note that every conference, with the exception of the MWC, has some sort of arrangement with ESPN.
Upon closer consideration (and in light of the SEC/ESPN domino), it appears that the trend is toward larger, longer contracts for the conferences with the biggest TV draws, which leaves fewer slots and dollars for the rest of the football world. The MWC and Big Ten have chosen to create their own networks in an effort to combat that trend. The Big 12, ACC, Pac 10 are exploring that option now. Notre Dame has watched helplessly as it relinquished its title as king of college football television, as all SEC teams now make more than it does, yes, even Vanderbilt. The Big East is hanging on to what it has (primarily stemming from legacy efforts and basketball prowess) and looking to improve its lineup for the next go-around. Conference USA is heading back down to the have-nots and the WAC is hoping to move up to the not-quite have-nots. Overall, the MWC package is better than any of the alternatives its non-AQ brethren have by a long shot.
The Haves
The SEC and Big 10 are a head and shoulders above everyone else. The bar has been set and other conferences that want to keep up are scrambling to find a way to match the TV revenue that they are going to bring in over the next 15 years.
1. SEC
The SEC has an $825M, 15 year contract with CBS, for an exclusive time slot and first pick of games (14 regular season and championship game). The league made headlines earlier this summer when it signed a second 15 year deal for $2.25B with ESPN. ESPN gets its pick of the rest of the games, some of which are sublicensed to regional carriers. It is hard to find any issues with these arrangements. This large investment by ESPN will ensure that college football fans continue to hear about the “dominance” of the SEC from the Sports Leader for years to come, and due to limited time slots, will also preclude other leagues from signing similarly valued deals with ESPN.
2. Big 10
The Big Ten Network launched last year and is projected to bring in $2.8B over the next 25 years; this also guarantees coverage for all of the leagues games. In addition, there is a $1.0B, 10 year contract with ABC/ESPN, and a $20M, 10 year basketball deal with CBS. When the SEC is essentially using ESPN as its own conference network, the Big 10 did the next best thing by starting its own, and has a high enough profile to generate more viewers and dollars than the Mtn.
3. Notre Dame
Notre Dame was once the king of the college football television world and it wasn’t even close. However, recently, it must find itself looking up at the Big 10 and SEC with envy and imagining the implications of being left behind. Despite this, it still brings in almost double the next closest school, and so remains one of the “haves” but could be quickly relegated to “wannabe have” status in the next 3-5 years. The school agreed to a 5 year contract extension with its football TV partner NBC this summer, and although terms have not been disclosed, they are believed to be in the same neighborhood as the previous contract, which would put it at about $9.0M per year. For basketball, the Irish are affiliated with the Big East and bring in another $2.0M per year or so. If Notre Dame ever decides to end its independent status, it will be because of its inability to remain relevant and draw viewers (and thus TV dollars) while being left out of the ongoing BCS and conference supremacy debate.
The Wannabe Haves
The Big 12, ACC, and Pac 10 feel an urgency to keep up with the Joneses. Rumors of creation of joint TV networks between Big 12 and ACC or Pac 10 and ACC have been flying. The Pac 10 brought in a new commissioner with the primary task of working out a more favorable TV arrangement (Pac 10 expansion may even be a possibility).
4. Big 12
There is a $480M, 8 year deal with ABC to show first pick of up to 19 games per season (and ESPN has rights to all basketball games). FSN has a 4 year, $78M deal to show the rest. Of those, FSN has sublicensed 7 games to ESPN and 5 to Versus. Overall good exposure, but significantly less compensation for the effort than the SEC or Big 10.
5. ACC
The addition of Miami, Virginia Tech, and Boston College has not quite played out in TV market land as was hoped. The ACC has a 7 year, $258M contract with ABC/ESPN that is expiring soon. In that deal, ABC gets first pick, then ESPN/ESPN2, then Raycom (as part of basketball deal), and lastly ESPNU. Raycom has a subordinate deal with them for 10 years for $300M for basketball. The ESPN contract requires a marquee game on Labor Day each year. It is obvious that the conference is exploring all avenues as it has been linked to nearly all of the mega conference TV network deal rumors.
6. Pac 10
The main contract here is $125M with ABC/ESPN for 20 games per year over 5 years ending in 2011. There is another contract with FSN for 5 years and $97M—5 of those games have been sublicensed to Versus, keeping 13 windows for games on FSN. The remainder of the games end up on a hodgepodge of Fox regional networks such as FSN Northwest, Fox Sports West, Fox Sports Arizona, Oregon Sports Netowrk, CSN Bay Area, etc. The prime gripe here is that most games are not readily available to a national audience. New conference commissioner Larry Scott was able to raise the profile of the Women’s Tennis Tour through savvy TV contracts and was hired to do the same with the Pac 10.
The Not-Quite Have-Nots
The Big East, Mountain West and Conference USA find themselves with real TV contracts that actually compensate them for the product (differentiating them from the WAC, MAC and Sunbelt), but for annual amounts and levels of exposure that don’t qualify them to be in the same grouping with the previous four conferences. It leaves them looking up with envy, but also looking down knowing it could be worse. The Big East is by far the best off of these three, and could be argued that it deserves to be with the group above based on total revenue, but since more than half of its money comes from basketball, leaving football only TV revenue of $1.7M (which is close to what the MWC makes), and the fact that it has been forced to play games at rather fringe start times, the Big East has been placed in this group. It is also unlikely that the Big East will be able to maintain that level of revenue in its next contract unless some significant changes are made.
7. Big East
The Big East has a 6 year, roughly $218M deal with ESPN ($80M for football split 8 ways and $138M for basketball split 16 ways) running through 2013, which appears to be a Mike Tranghese boondoggle. In any case, the league is getting paid and has 17 games guaranteed to be on ABC or ESPN, with at least 3 on ABC. In order to achieve that the conference had to agree to up to 4 games on Thursdays, 2 on Sundays and mutually agreeable Friday games. 5 additional games can appear on ESPNU. Given that this is only an 8 team league, there are not that many games to begin with, especially in conference, and only 37% of these televised games ended up being played on Saturdays, effectively ensuring no marquee Big East games on the sport’s biggest day. The conference also has a 6 year $54M contract with CBS that pays another $9M per year (but must be split 16 ways). So football schools make $3.7M per year ($1.7M from football and $2.0M from basketball), while the basketball only schools get roughly $2.0M each). This is the only conference that makes more from televising its basketball games than it does from its football games, and likely owes its status as an AQ-BCS football conference to its perception as the number one basketball conference. With the recent beating the conference has taken in the media and from fans, there are rumors that the Big East is again looking to expand (Memphis or an ACC reverse raid), in order to improve its profile and reputation and cling to its football TV revenue.
8. Mountain West
After leaving ESPN, for increased revenue and regular game times, the Mountain West television situation is finally settling down. What was originally a 12 year, $120M contract with CSTV, added Comcast the day after it was announced, and was since sold to CBS College Sports. The Mtn. was created and Versus (which is owned by Comcast) was given 8 games per year (as part of the contract 8 games per year must be distributed to a national audience of 70 million homes or more). CBSC has the rights to up to 24 games per year (and has selected 11 this year). Overall, the national footprint/access is improving as is the quality of the product; however, what suffers is the exposure on ESPN—both on TV and online, as the station does not have any vested interest in developing the leauge’s profile. There is also no web streaming available.
9. Conference USA
There is a legacy contract with ESPN/ESPN2 for 10 games per season paying $45.8M and another with CBSC for $22M over 6 years for its pick of the remainder of the games. Both contracts end at the end of the 2010 football season, and were originally set up pre-Big East raid of Cincinnati, Louisville, and South Florida, and pre-MWC raid of TCU. Many games required to be played on weeknights, in order to get on TV. When these contracts end, the conference will likely take a major hit on the revenue and exposure side of things.
The Have-Nots
10. WAC
The conference moves from its $1M per year contract with ESPN to one paying closer to $4M per year starting in 2010-11. The old deal allows ESPN/ESPN2 rights to a minimum of 8 games and the new deal requires a minimum of 10. The new deal also requires at least 6 games on ESPNU. Many of the games on ESPN/ESPN2 will be played on weeknights in order to find TV time. The silver lining in all of this is the online streaming and rights retained by schools for games not televised. This contract leaves a lot to be desired, but it is something and provides the exposure that is desperately needed by a conference trying to raise its profile. Should Boise no longer be a member of this conference during the next round of negotiations, look for the TV situation to take a step backwards.
11. MAC
The MAC will take what it can get. It has an 8 year, roughly $11M deal with ESPN to televise a minimum of 11 games—6 on ESPN/ESPN2 and 5 on ESPNU. Nearly all of these games will be played on weeknights. The bright spot for the MAC is that the creation of the Big Ten Network and the removal of Big Ten games from regional networks is that there is a demand for sports programming on many of the regional networks and many MAC games are being syndicated regionally.
12. Sunbelt
Its not easy being at the bottom of the college football food chain. The Sunbelt has a 3 year contract with ESPN to show at least 2 games per year. These games must be willing to allow for a 12 day advance scheduling window and play on weeknights. It isn’t clear if the league even receives any meaningful compensation for its product, but is looking for exposure however it can get it. Comcast/Charter Sports own the regional rights.
Note: Here are a few links to other sources covering TV contracts…
1. http://mattsarzsports.blogspot.com/2009/08/discussing-conferences-thyeir-tv.html
2. http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/stewart_mandel/07/24/tv-deals/index.html
3. http://www.ncaabbs.com/printthread.php?tid=350645
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
BYU's Effective Rankings--Week 7
BYU moved up several spots in each of the major polls this week, as we are all aware at this point, and combined to debut at number 16 pretty much across the board—AP, Coaches, Harris, BCS. However, the relative “rank” is not what matters in these polls, as was pointed out last week in my introduction to the “effective” rankings (www.byucougs.com/2009/10/inside-polls-byus-effective-ranking.html). All that really matters is the votes received and the percentage of votes of the total possible votes. Keeping in mind that each 4% gain in votes is one increase in “rank”, and that the “effective” rank can also be thought of as the average ballot slot given by voters. Based on this approach, I have updated the rankings to reflect BYU’s actual positioning each week and provided the effective AP poll.
BYU in AP
wk opponent record rank votes %votes gain eff
P ---- 0-0 20 267 17.8% ---- 21.55
1 Oklahoma 1-0 9 984 65.6% 47.8% 9.60
2 Tulane 2-0 7 1122 74.8% 9.2% 7.30
3 Florida St 2-1 19 349 23.3% -51.5% 20.18
4 CSU 3-1 20 349 23.3% 0.0% 20.18
5 Utah St 4-1 18 403 26.9% 3.6% 19.28
6 UNLV 5-1 18 490 32.7% 5.8% 17.83
7 SDSU 6-1 16 601 40.1% 7.4% 15.98
The effective increase was just under two spots, putting BYU above 40% for the first time in 5 weeks. And the second consecutive week of significant gains in votes.
BYU in Coaches
wk opponent record rank votes %votes gain eff
P ---- 0-0 24 178 12.1% ---- 22.98
1 Oklahoma 1-0 12 755 51.2% 39.1% 13.20
2 Tulane 2-0 9 941 63.8% 12.6% 10.05
3 Florida St 2-1 20 279 18.9% -44.9% 21.27
4 CSU 3-1 21 298 20.2% 1.3% 20.95
5 Utah St 4-1 20 353 23.9% 3.7% 20.02
6 UNLV 5-1 19 441 29.9% 6.0% 18.53
7 SDSU 6-1 16 577 39.1% 9.2% 16.22
Of the three major polls, BYU is effectively ranked the lowest in the Coaches Poll at 16.22, but also experienced the largest increase in the Coaches poll gaining 9.2% over last week.
BYU in Harris
wk opponent record rank votes %votes gain eff
4 Colorado St 3-1 19 796 27.9% ---- 19.02
5 Utah St 4-1 17 847 29.7% 1.8% 18.57
6 UNLV 5-1 17 963 33.8% 4.1% 17.55
7 SDSU 6-1 16 1210 42.5% 8.7% 15.39
Although ranked similarly in the Harris Poll as the other two polls at #16, BYU is effectively still ranked highest in this poll at 15.39 with 42.5% of the vote, effectively offsetting the Coaches poll in the BCS rankings. Also, despite only moving up only one official spot, they gained 8.7%, which is effectively more than two places.
Effective AP Rankings
Eff Team Votes AP Last
1.88 Alabama 1447 1 2.17
2.10 Florida 1434 2 1.17
3.25 Texas 1365 3 2.75
5.78 USC 1213 4 6.65
6.62 Cincinnati 1163 5 8.70
6.73 Boise St 1156 6 6.02
7.80 Iowa 1092 7 10.68
8.40 Miami 1056 8 9.83
9.10 LSU 1014 9 10.22
9.32 TCU 1001 10 10.72
11.65 GA Tech 861 11 18.45
11.85 Oregon 849 12 13.07
13.45 Penn State 753 13 16.05
14.50 Okla State 690 14 16.68
14.60 VA Tech 684 15 4.62
15.98 BYU 601 16 17.83
18.03 Houston 478 17 22.80
19.78 Ohio State 373 18 8.53
20.17 Utah 350 19 24.73
20.50 Pittsburgh 330 20 --
21.23 Texas Tech 286 21 --
22.58 West VA 205 22 --
23.35 So Carolina 159 23 20.68
24.00 Kansas 120 24 16.82
24.05 Oklahoma 117 25 18.80
The biggest changes were at the top and bottom of the poll. Alabama didn’t move up as much as Florida moved down. Texas, despite remaining #3, dropped a half a spot. Cincinnati, Iowa, and Georgia Tech had the largest gains. The gap between BYU and the team ahead of it widened from about 1.2 to 1.4.
BYU in AP
wk opponent record rank votes %votes gain eff
P ---- 0-0 20 267 17.8% ---- 21.55
1 Oklahoma 1-0 9 984 65.6% 47.8% 9.60
2 Tulane 2-0 7 1122 74.8% 9.2% 7.30
3 Florida St 2-1 19 349 23.3% -51.5% 20.18
4 CSU 3-1 20 349 23.3% 0.0% 20.18
5 Utah St 4-1 18 403 26.9% 3.6% 19.28
6 UNLV 5-1 18 490 32.7% 5.8% 17.83
7 SDSU 6-1 16 601 40.1% 7.4% 15.98
The effective increase was just under two spots, putting BYU above 40% for the first time in 5 weeks. And the second consecutive week of significant gains in votes.
BYU in Coaches
wk opponent record rank votes %votes gain eff
P ---- 0-0 24 178 12.1% ---- 22.98
1 Oklahoma 1-0 12 755 51.2% 39.1% 13.20
2 Tulane 2-0 9 941 63.8% 12.6% 10.05
3 Florida St 2-1 20 279 18.9% -44.9% 21.27
4 CSU 3-1 21 298 20.2% 1.3% 20.95
5 Utah St 4-1 20 353 23.9% 3.7% 20.02
6 UNLV 5-1 19 441 29.9% 6.0% 18.53
7 SDSU 6-1 16 577 39.1% 9.2% 16.22
Of the three major polls, BYU is effectively ranked the lowest in the Coaches Poll at 16.22, but also experienced the largest increase in the Coaches poll gaining 9.2% over last week.
BYU in Harris
wk opponent record rank votes %votes gain eff
4 Colorado St 3-1 19 796 27.9% ---- 19.02
5 Utah St 4-1 17 847 29.7% 1.8% 18.57
6 UNLV 5-1 17 963 33.8% 4.1% 17.55
7 SDSU 6-1 16 1210 42.5% 8.7% 15.39
Although ranked similarly in the Harris Poll as the other two polls at #16, BYU is effectively still ranked highest in this poll at 15.39 with 42.5% of the vote, effectively offsetting the Coaches poll in the BCS rankings. Also, despite only moving up only one official spot, they gained 8.7%, which is effectively more than two places.
Effective AP Rankings
Eff Team Votes AP Last
1.88 Alabama 1447 1 2.17
2.10 Florida 1434 2 1.17
3.25 Texas 1365 3 2.75
5.78 USC 1213 4 6.65
6.62 Cincinnati 1163 5 8.70
6.73 Boise St 1156 6 6.02
7.80 Iowa 1092 7 10.68
8.40 Miami 1056 8 9.83
9.10 LSU 1014 9 10.22
9.32 TCU 1001 10 10.72
11.65 GA Tech 861 11 18.45
11.85 Oregon 849 12 13.07
13.45 Penn State 753 13 16.05
14.50 Okla State 690 14 16.68
14.60 VA Tech 684 15 4.62
15.98 BYU 601 16 17.83
18.03 Houston 478 17 22.80
19.78 Ohio State 373 18 8.53
20.17 Utah 350 19 24.73
20.50 Pittsburgh 330 20 --
21.23 Texas Tech 286 21 --
22.58 West VA 205 22 --
23.35 So Carolina 159 23 20.68
24.00 Kansas 120 24 16.82
24.05 Oklahoma 117 25 18.80
The biggest changes were at the top and bottom of the poll. Alabama didn’t move up as much as Florida moved down. Texas, despite remaining #3, dropped a half a spot. Cincinnati, Iowa, and Georgia Tech had the largest gains. The gap between BYU and the team ahead of it widened from about 1.2 to 1.4.
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